World War II

1. World War II The Nature of Public Opinion

2. I. Two Theories of Public Opinion • The Moody Public • People are uninformed and uninterested in politics

3. Public Perceives High Levels of Aid

4. Public Perceives High Levels of Aid

5. Actual Aid Is Low as % of Budget – Allows Politicians to Frame Issue as either “Cut X%” or “Give X%”

6. I. Two Theories of Public Opinion • The Moody Public • People are uninformed and uninterested in politics • Public opinion is fickle and subject to dramatic, irrational shifts

9. I. Two Theories of Public Opinion • The Moody Public • People are uninformed and uninterested in politics • Public opinion is fickle and subject to dramatic, irrational shifts • The public is easily manipulated by elites in government or the media

10. Public Trusts the President More than Itself!

11. I. Two Theories of Public Opinion • The Moody Public • People are uninformed and uninterested in politics • Public opinion is fickle and subject to dramatic, irrational shifts • The public is easily manipulated by elites in government or the media • The Rational Public • Public opinion is nuanced

12. Iraq Survey (Sept 2008)

13. I. Two Theories of Public Opinion • The Moody Public • People are uninformed and uninterested in politics • Public opinion is fickle and subject to dramatic, irrational shifts • The public is easily manipulated by elites in government or the media • The Rational Public • Public opinion is nuanced • Public opinion is stable

14. Public Priorities: 1975

16. Public Priorities: 1986

18. Public Priorities: 2004

20. Public Priorities: 2008

24. I. Two Theories of Public Opinion • The Moody Public • People are uninformed and uninterested in politics • Public opinion is fickle and subject to dramatic, irrational shifts • The public is easily manipulated by elites in government or the media • The Rational Public • Public opinion is nuanced • Public opinion is stable • Public opinion is seldom manipulated

25. II. World War II: A Test • Historical Overview • Germany attacks most of Europe. US remains neutral, but ships war material to Britain and hunts German subs. • Japan attacks China. US imposes sanctions, including embargoes of steel, rubber, and oil. • Japan, seeking to end sanctions by seizing British and French colonies, attacks US fleet to prevent intervention and then invades Southeast Asia. • Germany declares war on US, partly due to US anti-submarine efforts and partly due to desire for help against Russia. • Allies insist on unconditional surrender, focus on Germany first. Germany occupied; atomic bombs dropped on Japan, which surrenders. • More than 400,000 Americans die.

26. A. The Conventional View 1. Public knew little about the wars in Europe and Asia and cared even less.

28. A. The Conventional View 1. Public knew little about the wars in Europe and Asia and cared even less. 2. Public irrationally opposed paying for a strong national defense to deter any attack

30. A. The Conventional View 1. Public knew little about the wars in Europe and Asia and cared even less. 2. Public irrationally opposed paying for a strong national defense to deter any attack 3. Public was isolationist until Pearl Harbor, then was shocked into support for war

33. A. The Conventional View 1. Public knew little about the wars in Europe and Asia and cared even less. 2. Public irrationally opposed paying for a strong national defense to deter any attack 3. Public was isolationist until Pearl Harbor, then was shocked into support for war 4. Public opinion was very racist and anti-Semitic, which caused the US Government to firebomb Japanese civilians and ignore the Holocaust.

35. B. Evidence • What did the American public know? • October 1938 – The Munich Agreement • Do you believe that England and France did the best thing in giving in to Germany instead of going to war? • Yes 59% • Do you think that this settlement will result in peace for a number of years or in a greater possibility of war? • Greater possibility of war 60% • November 1938: Hitler says he has no more territorial ambitions in Europe. Do you believe him? • No 92%

36. Public expected to fight in Europe If there is (a war between any of the big European countries) do you think the United States will be drawn into it?

37. Do you think the United States will go into the war in Europe some time before it is over, or do you think we will stay out of the war?

38. Public expected to fight Japan • December 5-7 1941 (before Pearl Harbor): Will the US go to war with Japan in the near future? • Yes 52% • No 27% • No Opinion 21%

39. Poor understanding of European politics • April 27, 1940: If Italy goes into the war, which side do you think she will join – Germany or England and France? • No opinion 33% • Opinion: • Allies 45% • Germany 55%

40. 2. Was the public irrationally anti-military before World War II? Should the United States require every able-bodied young man of 20 years old to serve in the army, navy, or the air forces for one year?

41. Should the United States… (% answering Yes)

42. 3. How isolationist was the American public? • Anti-war sentiment: strong until Pearl Harbor.

44. 3. How isolationist was the American public? • Anti-war sentiment: strong until Pearl Harbor. • Public exhibited some degree of strategic calculation

45. Strategic Thinking: Germany Which of these two things do you think is the more important for the United States to try to do – keep out of the war ourselves, or help England win, even at the risk of getting into the war?

46. Aug 1941: What do you think are England’s chances of winning if we

47. Late Nov 1941: Which is more important, keeping the US out of war, or defeating Germany? • Keep Out 32% • Defeat Germany 68%

48. Strategic thinking: Japan Should the US take steps now to prevent Japan from becoming more powerful, even if it risks war?

49. 4. Was the public racist and anti-Semitic, and did this influence the conduct of the war?

50. a. Anti-Semitism 1937: "What kinds of people do you object to?"