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U.S. Climate Reference Network Developments Research-To-Operations:

U.S. Climate Reference Network Developments Research-To-Operations: Midway To NOAA’s Model Climate Monitoring Network Presentation for the Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and Services Dr. Michael R. Helfert NOAA/NESDIS National Climatic Data Center May 3, 2005.

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U.S. Climate Reference Network Developments Research-To-Operations:

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  1. U.S. Climate Reference Network Developments Research-To-Operations: Midway To NOAA’s Model Climate Monitoring Network Presentation for the Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and Services Dr. Michael R. Helfert NOAA/NESDIS National Climatic Data Center May 3, 2005

  2. The Question, Principles, & Network Performance Measures, Nat’l & Regional Sensor Suites/Instruments Site Survey Primer Cross-Network Transfer Functions ------------------------------------------------------------------- Products and Product Development Where’s the Information? Where We Want To Be in 2010. Climate Reference Network

  3. Just what is the Climate Reference Network? An observing system that 50 years from now can, with the highest degree of confidence, answer the question… How has the climate of the U.S. changed over the past 50 years on national, regional and local levels?

  4. U.S. Climate Reference Network • Basic Principles of the CRN • U. S. Benchmark Network for Temp/Precip • Adheres to the “Climate Monitoring Principles” • Satisfy Requirements of Observing Systems • Anchors the U. S. Historical Climate Network (HCN) • Strong Climate Science & Research Component • Long-Term Stability of Observing Site (50+ years) • Sensors Annually Calibrated to Traceable Standards • Network Performance Monitoring - Hourly and Daily • Climatically representative & stable station sites using rigorous, systematic site selection National Climatic Data Center

  5. U.S. Climate Reference Network Program Status • 70 Commissioned Stations operational of 114 planned. • Data and Metadata for all commissioned sites on-line. • FY05 USCRN budget 0%; 50% funding recovered for O&M. • Revised Performance Measures necessitated (T&P). • FY06-08: 42 stations planned, budgets pending. • 108 of the 114 station sites have been identified; 90 approved; 18 in review; last 6 site surveys underway. • Outyr interest – AL, PA, CA, NC, GCOS, IPY, & DOD. • FY2005 Non-CONUS stations to HI & AK (GCOS). • Outyr GCOS deploys possible: Great American Cordillera, Caribbean, Africa, IPY Arctic Ring; Antarctic region, Europe, Equatorial & WPAC, Himalayas, 7 Sisters Rgn, Kamchatka-Kuriles.

  6. U.S. Climate Reference Network Annual Maintenance Visit • Exchange datalogger • Exchange one PRT • Exchange one aspirated shield fan • Exchange anemometer • Exchange pyranometer • Calibrate precipitation gauges • Complete maintenance checklist • Take compass-platte photographs • Bring station up to current configuration

  7. 114 CONUS Geographic Locations Required Captures 98% of variance in monthly temperature, 95% in annual precipitation for CONUS. Average annual error <0.1ºC for temperature, <1.5% for precipitation Trend “errors” <0.05ºC per decade IPCC: projects warming of 0.1-0.3ºC/decade and precipitation changes of 0–2%/decade for CONUS. U.S. Climate Reference Network Performance Measures

  8. Determine the Actual Long-term Changes in Temperature and Precipitation of the Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) April 05 Actual FY2005 Target: Capture more than 96.9% and 91.1% of the temperature and precipitation trends. Uncertainty of Twentieth Century CONUS precipitation trends is large (5% of total annual precipitation), as calculated trends range from 38.1 to 77.2 mm/Century. Goal is to reduce USCRN trend uncertainty from 19.2 (FY04) to 7.7 (FY08) mm per century (reduction equates to 40% of water in Great Lakes). Current CONUS temperature trend uncertainty (0.1o C per century, FY04) will be further reduced, enabling the capture of any acceleration or deceleration of trends now estimated to be increasing by about 0.2o C per decade since mid-1970s.

  9. Planned CRN Stations (September 2008)

  10. Regional Impact Preliminary analysis (Dr. Bomin Sun)Significance level of a linear temperature trend (1951-2002)Red: upward trend Blue: downward trend

  11. Sensor Suites/Instruments • Minimum Observing Requirements • Primary Measurements • Air Temperature • Precipitation Accumulation • Supporting Measurements • Wind Speed • Global Solar Radiation • Ground Surface (Skin) Temperature • --------------------------------------------------------------------------- • Relative Humidity • Soil Moisture & Soil Temperature • Barometric Pressure National Climatic Data Center

  12. Sensor Suites/Instruments Geonor and Small DFIR w/Single Alter National Climatic Data Center

  13. Sensor Suites/Instruments Primary and Supporting Sensors National Climatic Data Center

  14. Sensor Suites/Instruments Inhomogeneity Adjustment Issue

  15. Site Survey Primer U.S. Climate Reference Network Kestersen CA site looking north from south. Road along canal is elevated about 5 feet. Standing in Bureau of Reclamation land. Controlled Superfund Site for next 200+ yrs.

  16. Major Principles of Climate Station Siting • Site is representative of climate of region. • Minimal microclimatic influences. • Long-term (50-100 year) land tenure • Minimal prospects for human development • Avoids agriculture, major water bodies, major forested areas, basin terrain. • Accessible for calibration & maintenance. • Stable Host Agency or Organization. • Follows WMO Climate Station Siting Guidelines

  17. WMO Standards WMO Guide to Climatological Practices   "The Siting of Climatological Stations" Chapter 4 paragraph 2.4, pages 45-50. CRN Site Information Handbook, CRN Survey Checklist, CRN Scoring Sheets. ------------------------------------------------------------------- WMO Initial Guidance To Obtain Representative Meteorological Observations At Urban Sites TD-1250, 47 pp. 2004.

  18. Site Survey Primer Avoiding Microclimates Pinnacles RAWS site looking to east from west. Uncontrollable burns on 2-5 yr cycle. High creosote chaparral environment with dry grasses understory.

  19. Schwardt Lab Site,40m distant, height 8mMinimum of 80 mtrs separation is needed. Site Survey Primer Avoiding Microclimates Rock Springs, Emergin Corn Crop <10 m away. Crop annually rotates w/Soy & Wheat.180 mtrs separation from non-irrig agricultureis required

  20. Pacific Northwest Federal Area, co-location with Cooperative Station(HCN)

  21. USCRN Stations September 2004 (69 stations) Installed Paired Locations Installed Single Locations

  22. Planned USCRN Stations at end of 2008 (114* stations) Installed Paired Locations Installed Single Locations * Does not Include Alaska, Canada, Hawaii, & GCOS stations As of April 26, 2005

  23. U.S. Climate Reference Network Cross-Network Transfer Functions Cooperative Observer Network (~10,000 Stations)

  24. USCRN Site Survey 10/19/04 Pasture 3 Site

  25. USHCN Site, 1909, at Cottonwood Headquarters(also one of Helmut Landsberg’s 21 RCS’s)

  26. Dinosaur National Monument CRN Site w/co-locations RAWS Site CRN Site COOP Site

  27. USCRN Network Configuration As of May 4, 2005 (May 4, 2005) Installed Pair (14) Installed Single (59) Alaskan & Canadian Stations (3) not included in portrayal.

  28. Ingest Raw-Data Archive Processing Internet Quality Control Flagged-Data Archive User Community Maintenance Notification offline online Maintenance Provider Access CRN Data Management Activities:Flow of Data from Station To Users Field Sites NCDC InstrumentSuite Processing Unit Communications Device Communications Network

  29. PRODUCTS • Ingesting into routine Drought Monitoring and Climate Monitoring activities & products at NCDC • Prelim Normals (3-Yr) being used for older CRN’s • Transfer functions for up to 3-Yr POR being run on routine basis. Updated each successive yr. • Forthcoming Energy/Agriculture Applications by using Traditional vs 5-min/hourly corrected HDD/CDD & mean weighted max/min T’s for new LCD. Both LCD portrayals will be user accessible. • CRN Data being now used in TempVal & PrecipVal (Primary NCDC QA/QC Routine for ASOS, COOP, MMTS, ISD, etc. – in other words, it’s already there, you just don’t see it…)

  30. Pushing Too Fast – an Experimental Product with Insufficient POR and Insufficient Station Density: Tmax Anomaly of July 2004 ºC

  31. USCRN CONUS Deployments With Network Co-locations* No Co-location Known Coop or HCN Co-located Coop + Another Network Co-located (SURFRAD, RAWS, NADP, etc.) NADP Co-located *Colocations witin 10 km. Data as of April 26, 2054 RAWS/SCAN Co-located SURFRAD Co-located

  32. Estimating CRN T & P Normals 1. Places current USCRN observations into historical perspective for operational climate monitoring activities. 2. Allows inter-network transfer function determination (e.g., CRN <–> COOP) 3. Provides stable & leveraged data core for NOAA & other agency climate products STABLE, HIGH-CONFIDENCE CRN Normals require a min of a 5 yrs POR; 10 yrs POR desired. Shorter POR’s produce poor-quality, low-confidence transfer functions & normals. Definitely not one of our goals…

  33. USCRN Estimated Temperature Normals Product and Error Ranges, 1 – 3 yrs Period-of-Record Example, October T normals, ºCelsius

  34. Web Access USCRN Homepage URL: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/uscrn/

  35. 5-Yr CRN Vision Sufficient CRN stations deployed ( ~ 114) for capture of CONUS National Climate T & P Signals for stations with 5-yr POR for normals & extremes estimation (high-confidence products). Inter-network (HCN, Coop, SCAN, SNOTEL, RAWS) transfer functions give increased, homogeneous density coverage, and allow CRN to “steal time” backwards (integrated normals). Inter-network (esp. using CRN + ~615 “best” HCN-M) transfer functions determination will extend high-confidence T & P normals sufficiently as to allow Regional Climate T&P Signal determinations for all 11 U.S. Standard Climate Regions. Sufficient CRN data stream & confidence supports broad scientific analyses and debate of climate trends, envelopes, and extremes. CRN 5-minute data on-line within one hour of receipt at NCDC. CRN data and metadata continue to have full public access.

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