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Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities

Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities. Richard Knabb NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center 2007 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. Overview of wind speed probabilities. Replaced strike probabilities in 2006 Describe chances of a weather event at any specific location

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Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities

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  1. Operational Tropical CycloneWind Speed Probabilities Richard Knabb NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center 2007 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

  2. Overview of wind speed probabilities • Replaced strike probabilities in 2006 • Describe chances of a weather event at any specific location • Convey chances of wind speeds of at least particular thresholds • 34 kt (tropical storm force) • 50 kt • 64 kt (hurricane force) • Account for combined uncertainty in official track, intensity, and size forecasts • Extend to 5 days • Include inland locations

  3. What questions do these products answer? • What are the chances this wind event will happen to me at all? • Do I need to prepare? • Cumulative period probabilities • NHC and CPHC graphics and text products • Northern hemispheric grids sent via WMO headers • National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) CONUS grids • When is the event most likely to start at my location? • How much time do I have left to prepare? • Individual period probabilities • NHC and CPHC text products

  4. What questions do these products answer? • What are the chances the event will be occurring at my location during a specific period? • (example) Will hurricane-force winds occur in my city on Saturday night? • Incrementalprobabilities • NDFD • Might go out via WMO headers by 2008 • Being incorporated into WFO products

  5. Probabilities Convey Uncertainties in Track, Intensity, and Size Forecasts Ernesto Advisory #11

  6. Magnitudes of Cumulative Probabilities Vary Greatly But Realistically Katrina Advisory #5

  7. Magnitudes of Cumulative Probabilities Vary Greatly But Realistically Katrina Advisory #18

  8. Changes to Graphics for 2007

  9. 2006 Operational 120-h Graphic (64 kt)

  10. 2007 Final 120-h Graphic (64 kt)

  11. 2007 Preliminary 120-h Graphic (64 kt)

  12. Individual period probabilities help to understand timing uncertainty Chances of tropical storm force winds in Miami X

  13. Dealing With Small Probabilities

  14. A Challenge During Ernesto

  15. A Challenge During Ernesto

  16. A Challenge During Ernesto Hurricane Watch

  17. A Challenge During Ernesto

  18. What is available via the NDFD(National Digital Forecast Database)? • Cumulative and incremental probabilities • Updated four times daily (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) • 6 hourly 0-120 h • 34, 50, and 64 kt • CONUS domain only • 5 km grid spacing • Experimental during 2006, declared operational for 2007 hurricane season

  19. NDFD CONUS Domain

  20. Probabilities from NDFD Website www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/conusTropicalDay.php#tabs

  21. Probabilities in Hurrevac

  22. Graphics Widely Used in Emergency Management

  23. Going forward • Continue outreach and education • Compare probabilities with watches/warnings • Account for varying forecast confidence? • Enhance Hurrevac capabilities • Experimental storm surge probabilities

  24. For Additional Information… www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcprobs.shtml

  25. For Additional Information… www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/index.shtml

  26. For Additional Information… Richard.Knabb@noaa.gov

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