European Preferences in New Member States: Factors Shaping Choices and Vulnerabilities

1. Vulnerabilities, Accession Hangovers and the Presidency Role: Slovakia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic’s Choices for Europe Tim Haughton University of Birmingham SSEES, University College London, 26 Oct 2009

2. Why look at NPF in New EU MS? • Existing literature mostly looks at OMS • Most scholarly discussion of NMS has focused on accession and conditionality, but what explains their preferences at the European level as MS? • But also examining the process of NPF in NMS also illuminates the dynamics of domestic politics • inc. power and influence of societal groupings etc. • questions of state capacity • Legacies of communism, post-communist transition and the consequences of the accession process • Insights into future direction of EU • Feeds into theoretical debates about what drives integration and broader debates about preferences

3. National Preference Formation Various explanations used in the literature: • Unique historical experiences (George, Paterson etc) • Size (Archer and Nugent) • Public opinion (Nguyen; Hooghe and Marks) • Dependency (Trade and EU-funds) (Stone Sweet & Sandholtz; Aspinwall) • Ideology (Aspinwall) • Societal interests (Moravcsik) • Vulnerabilities and perceived weakness (Copsey and Haughton, 2009; Haughton, 2009)

4. Focus of study: Policy Areas

5. Slovenia’s Choices for Europe

6. Slovakia’s Choices for Europe

7. Cz R’s Choices for Europe

8. Economic Preferences • If ideology key to NPF might expect changes in all three cases • However – change not stability of prefs • Powerful societal interests? • Topolanek’sgovt and energy liberalization –CEZ –altho linked to dependences • Fico’s opposition to tax harmonization – foreign business lobby –although vulnerabilities • Weak unions – or just focus on domestic politics?

9. External Preferences Support for Enlargement espec to WB: • Ideology – some element in the Czech case (Klaus and Svoboda) • Trade and business links • imp for Slovenia: top list of priorities for presidency • Decision to block negotiations for Croatia in Dec 2008 due to deeper set of motivations

10. Institutional preferences • Ideology – yes on the catholic conservative right in all three cases • SK and Lisbon Treaty • Experience of 2003-4 IGC – decision to ‘retreat to the bench’ (Bilcik and Haughton, 2010) • Instrumentalization of Lisbon ratification • Fico welcomed decision to launch new IGC in 2007, but his priority eurozone entry

11. Completion of integration Imp for Slovakia: • Valence issue • Business interests – in 2006 Fico’s publicly voiced doubts – impact on koruna • Vulnerability – fear of ‘capital flight and devaluation’ (Gould, 2009) • Link here to deeper sense of vulnerability associated with SK’s complicated accession – preference sublimation/entrapment?

12. The Presidency Effect - SI + CZ • Raised profile of European issues • Changes in institutional architecture • Affected stance of key politicians • SI – preparations for a gaffe-free presidency cast long shadow over SI – fostered consensus • Presidency effect and preference formation

13. Vulnerabilities and Weaknesses • Vulnerability vs dependency: • Dependency is narrower concept which focuses on economics • Perceived weakness not just about eco stats • All of the key priorities of the 3 states (liberal internal market, energy security, opposition to tax harmonization, further enlargement and flow of EU funds) can be explained. • 2 components: • economic and the perceived place

14. Economic 4 measures of vulnerability: • Net recipient/net beneficiary • Openness of economy • Trade dependency on EU-27 • Debt to GDP • Bring together in composite measure

15. EU Dependency: Net Recipients and Net Contributors (2007)

16. Openness of Economy

17. Perceived place • Much harder to quantify • Vulnerability of labels: • SI – liminal state; seen as ‘Balkan’, ‘former Yugoslav’ etc. • ‘Insecurity discourse’ in Slovakia – link to no at Lux in 1997 • Fainter echo in Czech case

18. 4 vulnerabilities • History of 20th C: benefits of European co-operation and being seen as part of Western European club of established democracies • Size – dependent on neighbours not just for security, but for economics • Klaus et al EU as a ‘marriage of convenience’ not a ‘marriage of love’ (Braun, 2008) • EU as a protective umbrella vs harsh rains of globalization • Lack of power and voice in multinational organization –Benes decrees (Fico and Klaus)

19. Conclusions • Accession hangover – time and effort on accession – still coming to terms with membership • Presidency effect in cases of SI and CZ • Vulnerabilities = key, but bases of vulnerabilities not all set in stone – what happens when/if become net contributors? • Economic crisis and vulnerabilities – will this change stances?

20. Reasons not to be cheerful.......