1 / 16

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 2 November 2015. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons. Outline. Highlights

MartaAdara
Download Presentation

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 2 November 2015 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • Rainfall deficits continue over many areas of northern South America, including the Brazilian Plateau. • During the last 7 days (26 October -1 November 2015), below-average precipitation was observed over most of northwestern South America, and portions of southeastern and southern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over northern Argentina, central and southern Paraguay and scattered portions of central Brazil. • For 2-8 November 2015, above-average rainfall is predicted for portions of Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Paraguay and southern Brazil (20-30S). Below-average rainfall is predicted for portions of central and eastern Brazil (5-20S), and eastern Argentina.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most of northwestern South America, and portions of southeastern and southern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over northern Argentina, central and southern Paraguay and scattered portions of central Brazil.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most of northern South America, and northern, central and southeastern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over central Paraguay, northern Uruguay and portions of southern Brazil.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall deficits are present over the southern Amazon Basin (~220 mm) and the Brazilian Plateau (~70-110mm). • 90-day rainfall is slightly below average (~50 mm) over southern Brazil.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are above average in the equatorial Pacific, and near or slightly above average in the equatorial Atlantic. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionsis available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 24-30 October 2015, anomalous anticyclonic flow (center indicated by red A) dominated southeastern South America . • Lower panels: Anomalous rising motion was observed over southern Bolivia, Paraguay, and northern and central Argentina. Anomalous sinking motion occurred over the central and eastern Amazon Basin. A • Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. • Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days During the 7-day period 24-30 October 2015, above-average temperatures were observed over northern and central Brazil. Below-average temperatures were observed over Uruguay and eastern Argentina. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 2 November 2015 –Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 2 November 2015 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (2-8 November 2015), above-average rainfall is predicted for portions of Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Paraguay and southern Brazil (20-30S). Below-average rainfall is predicted for portions of central and eastern Brazil (5-20S), and eastern Argentina. • For Days 8-14 (9-15 November 2015), above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, southern Peru, Paraguay and southern Brazil. Below-average precipitation is predicted for Brazil from 5S to 20S.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 19 Oct. 2015 Valid for 26 Oct.-1 Nov. 2015 Forecast from 26 Oct. 2015 Valid for 26 Oct.-1 Nov. 2015 Observed 26 Oct.-1 Nov. 2015

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

More Related