1 / 16

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

This report provides an update on the recent evolution and current conditions of the South American Monsoon System. It includes highlights, rainfall patterns, atmospheric circulation, temperature anomalies, and forecasts.

mmurdock
Download Presentation

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 7 November 2011 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • During the last 7 days, below-average rainfall was observed over northwestern and southeastern South America especially western and southeastern Brazil. Above-average rainfall was observed over northeastern South America. • For 7-13 November, above-average rainfall is predicted for northern and northeastern South America, southern Peru, and eastern Argentina. Below-average rainfall is predicted over southern Colombia, northern Peru, and western and southern Brazil (except its extreme southern portion). For 14-20 November, above-average rainfall is predicted for northeastern South America, southeastern Brazil and southern Peru. Below-average rainfall is predicted over northwestern South America, northern Argentina, and extreme southern Brazil.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average rainfall was observed over northwestern and southeastern South America especially western and southeastern Brazil. Above-average rainfall was observed over northeastern South America.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average rainfall was mainly observed to the west of 60W, except for portions of Colombia and Bolivia. Above-average rainfall was found over northeastern South America.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall totals are clearly below average over the southern Amazon basin. Below-average rainfall has also been observed over the Brazilian Plateau. • 90-day totals are near average in southern Brazil.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies Below-average SSTs are present in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and above-average SSTs are found in the tropical Atlantic. (For more details concerning El Niño – La Niña go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During 29 October – 4 November 2011, in the upper troposphere an anomalous cyclonic circulation (center at C) was located near the coast of southeastern South America. • Lower panels: Anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was found over northeastern and west-central South America, and anomalous sinking motion was observed over southeastern South America. C Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days • During the 7-day period from 29 October to 4 November 2011, below-average temperatures were observed over southeastern South America. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 31 Oct 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 31 October 2011– Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (7-13 November), above-average rainfall is predicted for northern and northeastern South America, southern Peru, and eastern Argentina. Below-average rainfall is predicted over southern Colombia, northern Peru, and western and southern Brazil (except its extreme southern portion). • For Days 8-14 (14-20 November), above-average rainfall is predicted for northeastern South America, southeastern Brazil and southern Peru. Below-average rainfall is predicted over northwestern South America, northern Argentina, and extreme southern Brazil.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 25 Oct 2011 Valid 1-7 Nov 2011 Forecast from 31 Oct 2011 Valid 31 Oct – 6 Nov 2011 Observed 31 Oct – 6 Nov 2011

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

More Related