2010 ELECTION UPDATE EVAN TRACEY PRESIDENT CAMPAIGN MEDIA ANALYSIS GROUP, A KANTAR MEDIA SOLUTION

1. 2010 ELECTION UPDATE EVAN TRACEYPRESIDENT CAMPAIGN MEDIA ANALYSIS GROUP, A KANTAR MEDIA SOLUTION

2. Kantar Media – Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG) • Innovative technology, experienced professionals • Providing Political Ad Research Since 1997 • Tracking and Analyzing Political, Public Affairs and Issue-Advocacy Advertising • Experienced Political Researchers • Advising Clients on Media Strategy, Forecasting Media Buys, Public Relations and Crisis Communication © 2010 Kantar Media

3. Campaign Media Analysis Group CUSTOM SYNDICATED MODEL Unique Insights… …Easily Viewed In Flexible Formats © 2010 Kantar Media 3

4. 2010 Election Ad Outlook • 2010 Ad Landscape • 2010 Election Themes • 2010 Stretch Run © 2010 Kantar Media 4

5. 2010 ELECTION OUTLOOK • Political Media Trends • Campaigns Still Spend At the End • Ad Spending $160m Above The Same Time Period in 2006. • Broadcast Media Receiving Bulk of Campaign Spending. • Digital and Social Media, Radio and Cable spending Also Up. © 2010 Kantar Media 5

6. 2010 Campaign Landscape • What is Driving Ad Spending in 2010? • Competitive, Multi-Candidate and Special Elections • Control of Congress is at Stake • Big Issues Nationally and Locally • Early Voting and Changes to Campaign Law © 2010 Kantar Media

7. Campaign 2010 Political Armageddon – Federal Races Party Control at Stake U.S. House & Senate House and Senate Over 100 U.S. House Races are Considered ‘In-Play’ Bonus & Surprisingly Competitive Senate Races Political Climate = The Return of Incumbent Insecurity © 2010 Kantar Media 7

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9. Campaign 2010 Political Armageddon State & Local State & Local Races 37 Governors Running More than Half of Governors will be New the Day After 2010 Elections Big State & Stakes Strong Party Committees Angry Unions Ballot Measures Down-Ballot Turnover © 2010 Kantar Media 9

10. Candidates & Groups/Party Spending Up © 2010 Kantar Media 10

11. 2010 Issue Ads • Year Over Year Consistent Spending • Migrating to Network & Cable • 2/3 of Spending is National • Remainder of 2010 • Policy Becomes Politics in Even Years • “Obamacare” Rebranding & Post Gulf Spill Energy Bill • New England Triangle • Possibility of a “Lame Duck” Session © 2010 Kantar Media 11

12. Role of the Digital Media in 2010 “In the past, campaigns may have had a conversation about whether they should invest time and resources in new media, now they just do it naturally,” said Jennifer Crider, deputy executive director/communications director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Doug Heye, communications director of the Republican National Committee: As for the future, “hasn’t seen anyone cut their television advertising budget,” because of the advances in technology, but, he added, that he has seen direct-mail budgets slashed. • More Spending… But Still a Fraction • Campaign Doing More With Social Media Tools & Video • Web Video Grabbing Headlines, Not Winning Elections • OFA is MIA • Online Working to Become a Bigger Part of the End Game • Online Raising More Money for Traditional © 2010 Kantar Media 12

13. The Political Climate & Themes For 2010 © 2010 Kantar Media 13

14. “A month is a light year in politics.”—Gov.Haley Barbour 2010 Political Climate Mostly bad news for the Democrats • Republicans are leading Democrats on the economy, jobs and federal spending • The president’s approval rating among Independents is only 40%, share of voters who identify as Independents is up to 16% • Polls show that the engaged voters are angry about spending and the stimulus package; advantage GOP © 2010 Kantar Media 14

15. Political Theme2010 is the “Break Room” Election • Swing Voter is Employed • Economic Insecurity = Incumbent Insecurity • Impact or Lack There Of – Washington Policy Making • Spending, Debt & Bailouts • This is a “Role of Government” Election • Over Half of All Ads Negative So Far Incumbents are running away from Washington and Directly Toward Their Opponents © 2010 Kantar Media 15

16. The Stretch Run © 2010 Kantar Media 16

17. What to “Expect” the Final 7 Weeks • Historically 75% of Political Ad Spending • Local Campaigns Going On The Air • Extremely Negative Rhetoric • Democrats Leverage Money & Firewall Strategy House, Senate & Gov’s Spending More than $5 Million Per Day on Average © 2010 Kantar Media 17

18. 2010 FORECAST: THE BIG QUESTIONWILL THERE BE MONEY? “There are two things that are important in politics. The first is money and I can’t remember what the second one is.” …William McKinley © 2010 Kantar Media • 2010 Record Fundraising • $1 Billion COH & $1.2 Billion Raised this Year (Federal) • Some Party Committees Lagging, While Others are Setting Records • Groups/Unions Filling the Gaps 18

19. Impact of “Citizens United” • Groups Come in Various Sizes • Return of the Super PAC’s • State & Race Specific Groups • No More Magic Words • Limited Role For Corporations • Fighting Over the Same Ground • Heaviest Spend at the End • Moving In and Out of the “Hot Races” • Targeting “Trophy Races” © 2010 Kantar Media

20. End Game For Political Ads • Personal, Negative & Plentiful • Final Ad Push Could Go National • Unclear Role of the Groups • Online Working to be a Bigger Part of the End Game • At this time, we feel ad spending in the 2010 elections along with issue spending will be better than the 2008 & 2006 cycles, and there is greater upside at this point. © 2010 Kantar Media 20

21. Numbers to Watch This Fall • Last Day of Oktoberfest • How Many Democrat Strategists on Cable News Shows Predict The U.S. House is a “Lost Cause” • Status of the Bush Tax Cuts • Approval Ratings for the President vs. Tea Party • Poll Numbers in Senate & Governors’ Races • Late Fundraising Totals by Party • Halloween • October Surprises? • Financial Markets • Final Unemployment Numbers • Consumer Confidence • Right Track/Wrong Track Numbers © 2010 Kantar Media 21

22. How Many Of These People Are In Iowa on November 3, 2010! © 2010 Kantar Media 22