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CIMMSE Improving Inland Wind Forecasts July 2011 Project Update

CIMMSE Improving Inland Wind Forecasts July 2011 Project Update. Project Focuses Thus Far. Local Wind Climatology Land Decay Factors NDFD Verification. Meetings at RAH, Survey Results. Thanks to everyone’s participation

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CIMMSE Improving Inland Wind Forecasts July 2011 Project Update

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  1. CIMMSE Improving Inland Wind ForecastsJuly 2011 Project Update

  2. Project Focuses Thus Far • Local Wind Climatology • Land Decay Factors • NDFD Verification

  3. Meetings at RAH, Survey Results • Thanks to everyone’s participation • Suggested project’s contributions for areas of improvement in TC Wind Tool: gust factors and land decay, changes of wind speed with “complicated synoptic forcing over the region”

  4. Data Set • North Carolina State Climate Office CRONOS Database • Hourly wind data available • Initially, data only used for NC/SC stations—will expand to Virginia and Georgia • ASOS, AWOS, ECONET, RAWS data included

  5. Sample Weibull Plots • Large station to station variability in distributions Station: AURO Station: BEAR

  6. Climatology vs. Landfalling TCs • Compare Weibull distributions for climatology vs. landfalling TCs • Shape/scale parameters often appear different in these different situations (During TCs) (Climatology)

  7. Land Decay • Future work: break down by strength of storm, size of storm, storm propagation speed, • angle of storm approach

  8. NDFD Forecast Verification • Compare maximum observed wind speeds at observation locations to NDFD interpolated maximum wind speed forecast in those locations • Examine from various forecast times (36, 24, 12 hour forecasts prior to landfall)

  9. NDFD Verification Results Hanna (2008):

  10. Summary • Gust factors not examined yet (may need to be done from modeling framework, given lack of data) • Land decay factors highly variable: higher order polynomial fits, angle of approach, strength of system, size of system, etc. need to be examined • Land decay suggests NHC sustained wind speeds rarely match observed, even near center at time of landfall • MAE/Bias for storms examined indicates over prediction of wind speeds, (bias ranges, depending on storm) • Goal: finish observational portion by August; move on to more of a modeling framework

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