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LOCAL MARKET TRENDS IMPACTING AFFORDABLE HOUSING Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Area

LOCAL MARKET TRENDS IMPACTING AFFORDABLE HOUSING Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Area. Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC. THE GREAT RECESSION. CURRENT RECESSION RELATIVE TO SIMILAR FINANCIAL CRISIS RECESSIONS. EMPLOYED POPULATION RATIO Ages 25-54 Years. PART TIME EMPLOYMENT.

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LOCAL MARKET TRENDS IMPACTING AFFORDABLE HOUSING Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Area

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  1. LOCAL MARKET TRENDSIMPACTING AFFORDABLE HOUSING Portland-Vancouver Metropolitan Area Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC

  2. THE GREAT RECESSION

  3. CURRENT RECESSION RELATIVE TO SIMILAR FINANCIAL CRISIS RECESSIONS

  4. EMPLOYED POPULATION RATIOAges 25-54 Years

  5. PART TIME EMPLOYMENT

  6. LONG TERM UNEMPLOYED

  7. UNEMPLOYED SHIFTING TO DISABLED

  8. FAMILY INCOME TRENDS BY QUINTILE Family Income Down Net Worth Down 40% from 2007

  9. EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTORPortland Metro Area – 2001-2011 OLMIS and Johnson Reid

  10. EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY SECTORPortland Metro Area – 2001-2011 OLMIS and Johnson Reid

  11. GENERAL MARKET TRENDS • REAL ESTATE MARKETS ARE CYCLICAL, NOT LINEAR

  12. HOMEOWNERSHIP RATENational Trends

  13. PRICE TO RENT RATIONational Trends

  14. CASE SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX TRENDS

  15. POPULATION GROWTH BY TYPE2000-2010

  16. MAJOR DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS • AGING BABY BOOMERS • Less affluent than expected • Lost Equity/Negative Positions • YOUNG BABY BOOMERS • Changing retirement plans • Kids later, high income demands • CHILDREN OF BABY BOOMERS • Generation Y, Millennials, Echo Boom • It’s all about them

  17. RESIDENTIAL IMPACTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS • INCREASED INTEREST IN HIGHLY AMENITIZED LOCATIONS • Willingness to swap space and price for amenities • Urban amenities with a practical impact • VALUE ADDED STRATEGY IN PRIME LOCATIONS • Small units carefully sited • No parking?

  18. RENTAL APARTMENT MARKET TRENDSPortland Metro Area

  19. DISTRIBUTION OF PORTLAND METRORENTAL APARTMENT PIPELINE

  20. PIPELINE AS APERCENT OF CURRENT BASE

  21. HOUSING MARKET DYNAMICS • DEMAND INCREASING • Losses to tenure split ending • Rising rental pricing • Continued low interest rates • PIPELINE DRY • Very little new construction • Lot supply limited • Pricing must rise to replacement cost

  22. LOCAL RENTAL APARTMENTS • NO LONGER A CAN’T MISS MARKET • Production Cycle Well Underway • Attention Needs to be Paid to Pipeline • Infill, Understand Micro Markets • Quality Locations • Urban Amenity Profile • “Sustainable Competitive Position” • DEATH OF SUBURBS OVERSOLD

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