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Distributing Immigrants to Local Authorities

Distributing Immigrants to Local Authorities. Helena Howarth and Ben Winkley GSS Methodology Symposium: 6 July 2011. Overview. Section 1: Background Overview of current method Overview of proposed method Section 2: Detailed description of the student stream. Background.

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Distributing Immigrants to Local Authorities

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  1. Distributing Immigrants to Local Authorities Helena Howarth and Ben Winkley GSS Methodology Symposium: 6 July 2011

  2. Overview Section 1: • Background • Overview of current method • Overview of proposed method Section 2: • Detailed description of the student stream

  3. Background • The Migration Statistics Improvement Programme is a cross government initiative. • MSIP has already led to changes in the migration estimates. • Currently developing a distributional approach to LA level migration estimates using administrative data.

  4. Why are the estimates important? • Population estimates are used for calculating funding allocations for local government: schools, hospitals etc. • In 2009 natural change became the largest component of population change

  5. ONS ONS IPS IPS Overview of the current method Welcome to Stansted ONS • The International Passenger Survey samples 250k people at ports – a small percentage of whom are migrants. • Produces a robust national level migration estimate. • Produces Intermediate Geography estimates (between Region and LA). • LA level estimates modelled using information from admin sources, the Census and other indicators. ONS IPS

  6. Why change? • Some of the issues with the current method are: • The IPS sample is not robust enough for distribution to LA level • The method is not transparent for users • It includes “centralising tendency” • The IPS is intentions based • The new method is designed to solve these issues.

  7. Overview of the distribution method IPS long-term in-migration is split into different “streams” by “reason for visit” • Workers • Students • Returning migrants • Others

  8. Students • Students can be HE or FE • Data for split provided by IPS 2004/2005 • HE can be at government or private institutions. • There is no private/government split for FE 20% HE data from HESA and FE data from BIS and WAG. 11% 69%

  9. Higher Education – Government Source: Students in Higher Education Institutions 2008/09 – Table 9

  10. Higher Education – Government (2) Linking to other administrative sources (3) Imputation of missing term-time addresses (1) Sub-setting HESA data

  11. Higher Education - Private • HESA conducted a census of Private Providers of HE education in 2010. • This asked for aggregate data by: 1) mode of study • 2) level of study • 3) domicile • 4) Subject • Institution address used to allocate students: • Outside London – Term-time address distribution of HESA government institutions in the LA where available and LA of institution where not. • London – Term-time address distribution of all HESA government institutions in the London GOR

  12. Further Education • Datasets: • Individualised Learner Record (BIS) • Lifelong Learning Wales Record (Welsh Government) • Key Points: • Domicile known • Term-time address not known • No length of stay data • Coverage based on funding

  13. Any Questions?

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