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Livelihood Systems & their Vulnerability to high food prices. WHERE? WHO? WHEN? WHAT?. Livelihood Systems & Seasonal Calendars – (approximates). Continued dependence on food aid in some areas Deteriorating terms of trade Livestock disease affecting Uganda & Kenya
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Livelihood Systems & their Vulnerability to high food prices WHERE? WHO? WHEN? WHAT?
Continued dependence on food aid in some areas Deteriorating terms of trade Livestock disease affecting Uganda & Kenya Reduced mobilisation due to conflict & trade bans Asset bases depleted from past droughts To cope reduce expenditure - # of meals, diet diversity, non-food items, social services Rely more on credit, gifts & remittance Move to urban/peri-urban Pastoralists
Gap = 4 shoats Impact in pastoral livelihood zoneScenario - 50% price increase & reduced food aid Impact on food sources Impact on expenditure The impact of the shock will cause households to have a 44% food deficit before coping
Urban & peri-urban • Cost of living increased by up to 50% • Asset bases (savings) depleting To cope • Buy cheaper food direct from nearby rural farmers • Reduce expenditure - # of meals, non-staple foods • Reduce expenditure on water, soap, latrine etc (sanitation & hygiene) • Limit expenditure on social services & move to cheaper rent • Send (wife &) children to relatives or rural home • Limit use of cooking fuel & transportation • Rely more on credit, gifts & remit • Seek employment opportunities or negative IGAs
Gap = 6,000-7000/- Impact on urban poor – Mukuru Kwa RubenScenario - 50% price increase Impact on food sources Impact on expenditure The impact of the shock will cause households to have a 40% food deficit before coping
Agro-pastoral/Farmers Examples from SNNPR, Ethiopia Food Sources - poor Income sources - poor
Agro-pastoral/Farmers • Drought, conflict & displacement have affected production in the region • Currently food secure but deteriorating rapidly – dependent on next harvest • 25% increase in input costs & transportation • Deteriorating terms of trade • Asset bases depleted from past droughts – consume seeds To cope • Seek alternative income – agricultural or off-farm • Reduce expenditure - # of meals, diet diversity, non-food items, social services • Rely more on credit, gifts & remit • Move to urban/peri-urban Poor Income = Ksh 20,000-60,000 Sale of own produce, unskilled income-generating activities (e.g. agricultural, fishing); collection & sale of firewood & sale of charcoal
What to keep in mind….. • Response needs to be designed appropriately for different livelihoods • Therefore, we need to know how people are living in different livelihood zones: • Context esp. access to markets/trade flows/volumes • How much they rely on the market to purchase food • …...to sell produce & labour (income) • How much they spend on non-food items & fuel • And quantify their coping strategies (expandability) • To understand how they will be affected by the “shock/s”, who will affected & when