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COSMO General Meeting 2010 WG5 Parallel Session 6 September 2010

This study presents the verification results of various weather parameters, such as temperature, wind speed, and precipitation, obtained from MeteoSwiss in the year 2010. The study compares the accuracy of different models, including COSMO-2, COSMO-7, COSMO-LEPS, and IFS, and provides insights on biases and errors in the forecasted data.

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COSMO General Meeting 2010 WG5 Parallel Session 6 September 2010

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  1. Verification resultsat MeteoSwiss in the year 2010Francis Schubiger, Vanessa Stauch,Tanja Weusthoff, Pirmin Kaufmann, Christophe HugMeteoSwiss COSMO General Meeting 2010 WG5 Parallel Session 6 September 2010

  2. Verification of COSMO-2, COSMO-7, COSMO-LEPS and IFS • Operational (COSMO-2, COSMO-7, COSMO-LEPS [mean], IFS): • Surface (3h-steps SYNOP and 1h-steps SMN [Swiss Met Net]) • psred, ps, T2m, Td2m, 10m-wind, cloud cover, 12h-precipitation, gusts • Upper-air (TEMP) • T, RH, wind, F • Quasi-operational (COSMO-2, COSMO-7, IFS): • precipitation with RADAR (neighborhood/fuzzy verification, Ebert’s package) also weather-type dependant • Monitoring: SMN (swiss SYNOPs) , RADAR, windprofilers • Ongoing in experimental modus: • windprofiler over Switzerland • Fluxes at Payerne • New / Next developments: • Global radiation at swiss stations and with gridded data from CM-SAF • VAD (locations of swiss radars) => All these packages will be replaced by VERSUS 2

  3. T2m: mean diurnal cycle (first 24h forecasts)domain Switzerland (hourly SYNOP‘s) Summer 2009 Winter 2009/2010 OBS COSMO-7 COSMO-2 Autumn 2009 Spring 2010 P. Kaufmann, V. Stauch

  4. T2m: mean diurnal cycle (first 24h forecasts)domain Switzerland (hourly SYNOP‘s) Summer 2010 Winter 2009/2010 OBS COSMO-7 COSMO-2 Autumn 2009 Spring 2010 P. Kaufmann, V. Stauch

  5. T2m: mean diurnal cycle Spring 2010COSMO-7 vs IFSSYNOP‘s over COSMO-7 domain OBS COSMO-7 IFS P. Kaufmann, V. Stauch

  6. T2m: mean diurnal cycle Spring 2010COSMO-7 vs COSMO-LEPSSYNOP‘s over COSMO-7 domain OBS COSMO-7 COSMO-LEPS P. Kaufmann, V. Stauch

  7. 10m windspeed: comparison IFS & COSMO-7 Autumn 2009, bias 10m windspeed for forecast +39 to +48h IFS COSMO-7 P. Kaufmann, V. Stauch

  8. Precipitation: Spring 2010geographical distribution precipitation12h sums frequency bias(1 mm/12h) Spring 2010 COSMO-7 P. Kaufmann, V. Stauch

  9. Precipitation: Summer 2010geographical distribution precipitation12h sums frequency bias(1 mm/12h) Summer 2010 COSMO-7 P. Kaufmann, V. Stauch

  10. Precipitation: Spring 2010geographical distribution precipitation12h sums frequency bias(10 mm/12h) Spring 2010 COSMO-7 P. Kaufmann, V. Stauch

  11. Precipitation: Summer 2010geographical distribution precipitation12h sums frequency bias(10 mm/12h) Summer 2010 COSMO-7 P. Kaufmann, V. Stauch

  12. precipitation12h sums threshold(0.1 mm/12h) Spring 2010 domain Switzerland IFS COSMO-7 SYNOP: comparison IFS & COSMO-7 frequency bias (mm) probability of detection False alarm ratio observed frequency P. Kaufmann, V. Stauch

  13. precipitation12h sums threshold(1 mm/12h) Spring 2010 domain Switzerland IFS COSMO-7 SYNOP: comparison IFS & COSMO-7 frequency bias (mm) probability of detection False alarm ratio observed frequency P. Kaufmann, V. Stauch

  14. precipitation12h sums threshold(10 mm/12h) Spring 2010 domain Switzerland IFS COSMO-7 SYNOP: comparison IFS & COSMO-7 frequency bias (mm) probability of detection False alarm ratio observed frequency P. Kaufmann, V. Stauch

  15. precipitation12h sums threshold(10 mm/12h) Spring 2010 domainEurope IFS COSMO-7 SYNOP: comparison IFS & COSMO-7 frequency bias (mm) probability of detection False alarm ratio observed frequency P. Kaufmann, V. Stauch

  16. precipitation12h sums mean error (mm/12h) Spring 2010 domainEurope IFS COSMO-7 SYNOP: comparison IFS & COSMO-7 P. Kaufmann, V. Stauch

  17. SYNOP: comparison COSMO-7 & COSMO-LEPS precipitation12h sums mean error (mm/12h) Spring 2010 domainEurope COSMO- LEPS COSMO-7 P. Kaufmann, V. Stauch

  18. Precipitation (12h-sums +12 to +24h):Spring 2010 over Switzerland (SYNOP‘s)frequency bias: COSMO-7 & COSMO-2 observed frequency V. Stauch

  19. Precipitation (12h-sums +12 to +24h):Spring 2010 over Switzerland (SYNOP‘s) frequency bias: COSMO-7 & IFS observed frequency V. Stauch

  20. Precipitation (12h-sums +12 to +24h):Spring 2010 over Switzerland (SYNOP‘s) COSMO-2 for different gridpoint selections/areas nn: nearest c5: 5 points s9: 9 points d3: 3x3 points d9: 9x9 points observed frequency V. Stauch

  21. Precipitation (12h-sums +12 to +24h):Spring 2010 over Switzerland (SYNOP‘s)COSMO-7 & COSMO-2 V. Stauch

  22. Precipitation (12h-sums +12 to +24h):Spring 2010 over Switzerland (SYNOP‘s)COSMO-7 & IFS V. Stauch

  23. Precipitation (12h-sums +36 to +48h):Spring 2010 over Switzerland (SYNOP‘s)COSMO-7 & IFS V. Stauch

  24. Precipitation [mm/12h]: frequency bias [in %] (1)

  25. Precipitation [mm/12h]: frequency bias [in %] (2)

  26. Precipitation [mm/12h]: frequency bias [in %] (3) Summary: mean bias

  27. Verification of surface weather parameters • 2m-temperature: • cold bias in winter • positive bias during nighttime in Summer (for COSMO-2 also Spring and Autumn) • COSMO-2 ~0.3 K warmer (higher values) than COSMO-7 • 2m-dewpoint: • negative bias (~1 K) in the 6-month summer period over COSMO-2 domain • 10m-windspeed: • negative bias along the coast and on mountains, positive bias inland • total cloudiness: • mean daily cycle not well represented • precipitation: • underestimation in Summer (25% COSMO-7, 10% COSMO-2) andoverestimation in Winter/Spring (25% COSMO-7, 35% COSMO-2) • higher amounts in COSMO-2 / higher amounts over Alpine area • low amounts (0.1 mm/12h): overestimated in Winter (over the Alps) • high amounts (10 mm/12h): underestimated in COSMO-7 (over full domain by ~30% in summer, 10% in winter)

  28. Windspeed: Payerne Winter 09/10 (24h fcst) COSMO-7 COSMO-2 Ch. Hug

  29. Windspeed: Payerne Winter 09/10 (24h fcst) IFS COSMO-7 Ch. Hug

  30. Verification with vertical profiles: main results • temperature: cold bias (~ 0.5 K) in winter and warm bias (~ 0.5 K) in summer from ground up to 300 hPa • windspeed: positive bias in PBL (up to +1 m/s in winter) and slight negative bias above 400 hPa

  31. Neighborhood (fuzzy) verificationfor precipitation verification on lower resolution: avoid the „double penalty problem“ T. Weusthoff

  32. good bad How to read „fuzzy grafics“ best skill forlow precipitationon large scales numbers / colours  value of the score, here: FSS increasingwindow size numbers in bold  useful scales (only for FSS) low skill forhigh precipitationon small scales Increasing threshold T. Weusthoff

  33. Neighborhood verification for precipitation results for 2009 3h accumulated precipitation sums over the domain of the swiss radar composit models: COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 leadtimes 04 – 07h for all 8 daily forecast runs obervation precipitation estimates of the swiss radar composit in case of a missing value, the full date will not be evaluated(total of 28 days)

  34. good bad COSMO-7 better COSMO-2 better Neighborhood (fuzzy) verification 2009, FSS and UP T. Weusthoff Fractions Skill Score - = COSMO-2 - COSMO-7 COSMO-2 COSMO-7 Upscaling - =

  35. Neighborhood (fuzzy) verification: Spring 2010COSMO-2/COSMO-7: 3h acc, leadtime +4 to +6 for all modelsFractions Skill Score (top), Upscaling (bottom) COSMO-2 COSMO-7 COSMO-2 – COSMO-7 T. Weusthoff

  36. Neighborhood (fuzzy) verification: Spring 2010COSMO-2/COSMO-7: 3h acc, leadtime +4 to +6 for all models COSMO-2 COSMO-7 IFS Fractions Skill Score FSS Upscaling ETS Upscaling freq. bias FBI T. Weusthoff

  37. Neighborhood (fuzzy) verification:Spring 2010 mean precipitation bias 3h sums leadtime: +4 to +6 for COSMO models +4 to +15 for IFS 12h sumsleadtime+13 to +24 for all models T. Weusthoff

  38. Neighborhood3h precip sumsCOSMO-7 01.07-27.07.09 05.12-31.2109 • Differences winter to summer period: • not significant in Fractions Skill Scoreand Upscaling with ETS • but significant in the bias, see the Upscaling with frequency bias • bias with SYNOP stationsin Switzerland:summer 09: 25% underest. winter 09/10: 46% overest. T. Weusthoff

  39. Neighborhood (fuzzy) verification:Spring 2010 precipitation 3h sums; leadtime: +4 to +6 for COSMO models, +4 to +15 for IFS T. Weusthoff

  40. COSMO-7 better COSMO-2 better Differences in Fractions Skill score for weather-type dependant verif COSMO-2 minus COSMO-7 NE S YEAR 2009 SW N F  greatest adavantage for COSMO-2 for weather types N, NW, SW and „flat“, „high“ and „low“ mainly for higher thresholds H NW E SE L W

  41. Summary of neighborhood verification What did we learn from neighborhood verification? • COSMO-2, COSMO-7 and IFS have skill • best forecast of the spatial structure on larger scales (higher FSS values) • skill of the models strongly varies for different weather types and also the difference COSMO-2 to COSMO-7 is differentlybest skill: early summer and autumn, resp. south and westerly flow greatest difference COSMO-2 minus COSMO-7: summer (May to September) resp. for northern and westerly flow and in convective situations What remains unclear ? • interpretation of the results for intensity scale:is there a spatial shift in COSMO-2 ? T. Weusthoff

  42. Monitoring COSMO • With: • radar (intranet: for COSMO-2) • swiss SYNOP‘s (intranet: for COSMO-2 & COSMO-7) • windprofiler (intranet: for COSMO-2) • Example of ARPA Veneto (Andrea Ross) with: • PBL height

  43. D. Leuenberger

  44. Monitoring COSMO: Windprofiler D. Ruffieux, P. Huguenin (Payerne)

  45. Boundary layer height monitoringpreliminary results over Veneto (21-22.01.2010) red: TEMP green: radiometer black/white: COSMO-2 fcst A. Rossa (ARPA Veneto)

  46. Temperature profile Padova (I) Jan – Feb 2010 Height dependent cold bias increasing in thefirst 6h and then relatively constant A. Rossa (ARPA Veneto)

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