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Polling and Question Wording

Polling and Question Wording. Dr. Brian William Smith. Learning Objectives. Understand basics of polling Be able to analyze and explain polling and survey data. The End of the Judgment Sample- The Literary Digest. Correct in 24,28,32 10 million ballots distributed 2.2 Million Responses

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Polling and Question Wording

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  1. Polling and Question Wording Dr. Brian William Smith

  2. Learning Objectives Understand basics of polling Be able to analyze and explain polling and survey data.

  3. The End of the Judgment Sample- The Literary Digest • Correct in 24,28,32 • 10 million ballots distributed • 2.2 Million Responses • Alf Landon Will defeat FDR (by a landslide)

  4. Why The Literary Digest was Wrong • The wrong sampling frame • Selection and Response bias • The Literary Digest is out of business

  5. The Death of Quota Sampling: 1948 • George Gallup thrived on these. • In 1948 he predicts that Thomas Dewey of New York would defeat Harry Truman

  6. Why Gallup was Wrong • It was a close election • The electorate diversified • They filled up quotas with easy targets • They stopped polling

  7. Probability samples

  8. Probability Samples • Ensure that every unit in the population has an equal chance of being selected • In a simple random sample all elements in the population can be selected • This involves having a full list of everyone!

  9. How to do it- old time way Random Number Table The Lottery Method

  10. Cluster Sampling • People Move, Houses Don’t • Random Samples of known units • Each unit in the cluster has a chance

  11. Advantages and Disadvantages • Advantages of Cluster Surveys • Disadvantages

  12. Telephone Surveys • Every Phone Number has an equal Chance of Being Selected • Random Digit Dialing

  13. Why it is not a true random sample • Some people do not have phones • Some people simply will not answer (50% refusal rate)

  14. Advantages of Phone • Fast • CATI • Closed Ended Questions

  15. Problems of Cell Phones • Some are Excluded • You have to pay people to participate

  16. Internet Surveys • They Used to be self-selected • Unscientific

  17. Modern Internet Surveys • Combine RDD and the Internet • Very Fast • Problems (24% do not have internet access)

  18. Exit Polls • Use a random selection of polling places • Quick Recall and Fast Data • Problems

  19. How well did the Pollsters do?

  20. Questionnaire Construction

  21. Question Style • Open Ended • Closed Ended

  22. Question Order is Key • Intro and Filter • First Questions • Major Questions • Final Questions- demographics

  23. How you should Phrase Questions • Language • Information Level • One question 1 concept

  24. Question Bias • Leading Questions • Double Barreled Questions

  25. A bad question • 1. What do you think is the most important issue currently facing St. Edward’s University? a. Groundskeeping b. Food Service c. Heating d. Athletic Field Maintenance

  26. Another One If you had to make up the SEU Budget, and could only keep one of the following activities which of the items would you keep? a. Faculty Lunch Colloquium b. Expanded Library Hours c. Reduced parking rates for faculty d. Discounted tickets for Topper Club members

  27. Info Level problem With the problems of “mad cow” disease and potential problems with the existing BHT growth hormone, do you agree that Texas Universities, should continue testing the experimental BVT growth hormone on TexasLivestock a. Agree b. Disagree. c. Don't Know

  28. Americans Lie • Socially Acceptable Questions • Always Remember Homer Simpson's Code of the Schoolyard • Don't tattle • Always make fun of those different from you.  • Never say anything, unless you're sure everyone feels exactly the same way you do.

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