Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

1. A FRAMEWORK FOR A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE ON WHAT WE CALL “A DISASTER” Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

2. 1. SCOPE FROM 3 CONTINUUMS TO A DISASTERTO STUDIES AFTER A DISASTER TO PREVENTION OF A FUTURE DISASTER THROUGH “BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES”

3. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.  

4. THE THREE CONTINUUMS OF EVERY DISASTER • PEOPLE • COMMUNITY • RECURRING EVENTS (AKA Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

5. EACH continuum IS LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: IT NEVER ENDS

6. TWO CONTINUUMS ARE LIKE A CHAIN: THEY HAVE WEAK LINKS

7. FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS CAUSE DISASTERS • IGNORANCE • APATHY • DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES • LACK OF POLITICAL WILL

8. CONTINUUM 1: PEOPLE • 6 + BILLION (DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD)

9. PEOPLE = DIVERSITY SUB-SAHARA AFRICA CARIBBEAN BASIN EUROPE 200 NATIONS AND 6+ BILLION PEOPLE NORTH AMERICA MEDITER- RANEAN SOUTH AMERICA ISLAND NATIONS ASIA

10. CONTINUUM 2 : THE COMMUNITY (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE) • GOVERNMENT • DWELLINGS • SCHOOLS • HEALTH CARE FACILITIES • BUSINESSES • INFRA-STRUCTURE • ETC

11. CONTINUUM 3: RECURRING EVENTS (OF A DYNAMIC EARTH) • FLOODS • SEVERE WINDSTORMS • EARTHQUAKES • DROUGHTS • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • ETC.

12. INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER, AND SOME WON’T

13. COMMUNITY CP EVENTS S P O T WHEN AN INTERSECTION OCCURS, WILL A DISASTER OCCUR? THE CP IS “YES” IF THE PEOPLE AND THE COMMUNITY ARE NOT READY WHEN THE INTERSECTION HAPPENS PEOPLE

14. EXAMPLE OF A DISASTER

15. LIVING WITH RISK DISASTER DECREASED CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

16. LIVING WITH RISK NO DISASTER THIS TIME DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

17. FOR POLICIES ON SUSTAINABILITY • SECURITY • HEALTH CARE …ETC • BEST POLICIES • BEST PRACTICES A DISASTER DISASTER PREVENTION FAILURES IN POLICIES CAUSES FAILURES IN PRACTICES POST-DISASTER STUDIES YOUR COMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

18. TURNING POINTS FOR DISASTER PREVENTION EDUCATION: PENETRATE SOCIETY IGNORANCE TO ENLIGHTENMENT BUILDING EQUITY AND PENETRATING SOCIETY APATHY TO EMPOWERMENT BOUNDARIES TO NETWORKS ENABLEMENT OF POLITICAL WILL

19. POST-DISASTER STUDIES--- ---ARE LIKE THE SYSTEM - ANALYSIS PROCEDURES FOUR BLIND PEOPLE WOULD USE TO DESCRIBE AN ELEPHANT

20. 2. FROM POST-DISASTER STUDIESTONEW KNOWLEDGE THAT CLOSES PRIOR KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS, ANDIDENTIFIES WEAK LINKS IN THE PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS

21. CURRENT KNOWLEDGE IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR, STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND THEORETICAL MODELS HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES

22. KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES DISCONTINUITIES in space, and time of the available knowledge BETWEEN organizations, disciplines, and people will always create uncertainties in choices anddifferences in capability to achieve disaster prevention.

23. KNOWLEDGE GAPS DISCONTINUITIES in space, and time WITHIN organizations, disciplines, or individuals will always create uncertainties that limit the options for effective disaster prevention.

24. STRENGTHENING WEAK LINKS EXPANDS CAPABILITY IMPROVES DELIVERY MECHANISMS POST-DISASTER KNOWLEDGE OVERCOMES UNIVERSAL BARRIERS CREATES TURNING POINTS FOR CHANGE INCREASES COMMUNITY DISASTER PREVENTION

25. POST DISASTER STUDIES • FROM: a) “WHAT HAPPENED” AND b) “WHY IT HAPPENED” TO • c) “WHAT CAN BE DONE” TO PREVENT A RECURRENCE?

26. RECURRING FLOODING Interactions of Planet Earth’s sun, atmosphere, litho-sphere, hydro-sphere, and biosphere cause: • Floods.

27. INTERACTIONS OF EARTH’S CORE, MANTLE, ASTHENOSPHERE, AND LITHOSPHERE, CAUSE RECURRING EARTHQUAKES

28. HAITI EARTHQUAKE JANUARY 12, 2010

29. INTERACTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL LITHOSPHERE WITH THE OCEANIC LITHOSPHERE AND THE HYDROSPHERE CAUSE RECURRING TSUNAMIS

30. TSUNAMI: JAPANMARCH 12, 2011

31. TSUNAMI: OFFSHORE INDONESIA DEC. 26, 2004

32. RECURRING SEVERE WINDSTORMS:HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, CYCLONES INTERACTIONS OF THE SUN, ATMOSPHERE, HYDROSPHERE, TROPOSPHERE, AND LITHOSPHERE

33. ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010 • Alex (H) June 21 • Bonnie July 27 • Colin Aug 3 • Danielle (H) Aug 21 • Earl (H) Aug.29 • Fiona Aug 30

34. RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES Planet Earth’s atmospheric-oceanic-lithospheric interactions cause: • Droughts

35. RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS: INTERACTIONS OF THE CORE, MANTLE, LITHOSPHERE, AND ATMOSPHERE

36. VOLCANIC ERUPTION: ICELANDAPRIL 14, 2010

37. 3. FROM POST-DISASTER STUDIES TO DISASTER PREVENTION A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF A DISASTER LEADS TO “BEST POLICIES” AND “BEST PRACTICES” TO PREVENT RECURRENCES

38. FROM KNOWLEDGE T0 PREVENTION RELEVANCE PUBLIC AWARENESS BASIC PRINCIPLES FOR BUILDING A CULTURE OF DIS-ASTER PREVENTION INCREASED UNDERSTANDING POLITICAL ENABLEMENT INCREASED EQUITY

39. DISASTER PREVENTION Design and Implementation of policies and practices: a) to INCREASE CAPACITY of the PEOPLE, and b) to ELIMINATE VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY.

40. STOP INCREASING COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY

41. WHEN THE DIALOGUE IS ON THE CONTINUUMS WE CARE ABOUT, WE ALMOST NEVER LEAVE AYTHING TO CHANCE

42. “BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES” • PROTECTION(BUILD TO WITHSTAND) • LAND-USE CONTROL (AVOIDANCE)

43. “BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES” • MONITORING AND WARNING (KNOW WHEN TO GET PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY) • DISASTER SCENARIOS (ANTICIPATE WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN, THEN GET READY FOR IT NOW)

44. PEOPLE AND THEIR COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE INTERSECTION

45. NO DISASTERS “BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES FUNCTIONAL NETWORKING CHANNELS INFORMATION NETWORKING CHANNELS READINESS FOR A POSSIBLE DISASTER ORGANIZATION NETWORKING CHANNELS PRIVATE SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR COMMUNITY STAKEHOLDERS ACADEMIA Stratec Consulting