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Gl bal Last-Line of Defense (GOLD)

Gl bal Last-Line of Defense (GOLD). John Marcy ASTE 527 Concept October 9, 2012. Background. Earth has experienced the extinction of a species, the Tunguska event within the past 100 years, and will experience a close call in the year 2029

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Gl bal Last-Line of Defense (GOLD)

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  1. Gl bal Last-Line of Defense (GOLD) John Marcy ASTE 527 Concept October 9, 2012

  2. Background • Earth has experienced the extinction of a species, the Tunguska event within the past 100 years, and will experience a close call in the year 2029 • Example NASA programs involved in the discovery of Near-Earth Objects: • Spaceguard:93% of objects found with diameter > 1 km • NEOWISE: 20-23% of objects found with diameter > 100 m • LINEAR: Adapting technology to follow satellites to discover NEO’s

  3. History 1908 – A 50 m asteroid exploded over Siberia with the equivalent damage of 600 Hiroshima nuclear bombs – Tunguska Event January 1967 – Outer Space Treaty signed between the U.S., Russia, and the U.K. The same year, a group of MIT students look to develop first asteroid interceptor with Project Icarus July 1991 – STrategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) signed 1998 – Congress mandates for discovery of 90% of asteroids greater than 1 km 2005 – Congress mandates for discovery of 90% of asteroids greater than 140 m by the year 2020, funds pending April 2010 – New START treaty signed between the U.S. and Russia 2029 – The 300 m asteroid 99942 Apophis will miss Earth by approximately one tenth the distance from the Earth to Moon

  4. Context • For impacts predicted with lead times greater than 10 years, altering the orbit of the asteroid’s trajectory can cause it to miss Earth Completely • There currently exists nomitigation plan against eventual Earth impact with these smaller, yet still powerful asteroids • Deep Impact has previewed the necessary technology to enable GOLD

  5. The Scenario / Assumptions • With very little warning, an asteroid has been discovered to impact a highly populated city • For example, a minivan size meteor struck northern California, on April 26, 2012 • This concept addresses taking out aggressor with existing nuclear warhead with a penetrator/subsurface detonation first, not a stand off detonation • GOLD provides Earth with a last line of defense

  6. The GOLD Spacecraft • The Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV) is a missile that has been in service since 2004 and widely tested against an array of targets 23in Mass = 65.3 kg 55 in Cooling System Heat Shield Nuc Mass = 1100 kg Total Dry Mass = 1500 kg Total Wet Mass = 3000 kg Nuclear Device Adaptor with expeller

  7. Timeline EKV separates and detonates Sensors on with ~24 hours to go Initial maneuver and Guide autonomously for ~24-48 hours ~3 min into flight separation Nuclear warhead detonates on area impacted by EKV Launch for a ΔV ranging from 2-30 km/s > 15 day launch window needed

  8. The Need vs. Risk for Nuclear • The momentum/energy transfer created by a shallow subsurface nuclear explosion is at least 100 times more effective than that of a standoff nuclear explosion

  9. Limitations • Develop a more adaptable system • NEO’s can vary in size, shape, orientation, spin, etc • Extreme high velocities already a major concern • Ensure the system is as 100% reliable • There is a known issue with EKV and multiple objects – dual salvo?

  10. Future Studies • Develop choreographed response to incoming threat • Send multiple GOLD spacecraft to repeatedly strike the incoming asteroid • Decrease the threat of nuclear fallout • This will alleviate some of the political and environmental worries • Adapt the system to counter the possible comet impact • Comets move on the order 10 times faster and could be bigger than asteroids • Long term – use possible Lunar base as a way to track potential threats, and launch for quicker deployment and smaller ΔV’s

  11. The Global PlanetaryDefensive Agency (GPDA) • Tasks: • Maintain the three stations across the Equator • Monitor the skies for incoming threats • Reallocate of the global nuclear arsenal • Analyze the scenario for the last line of defense • Location of impact vs. potential nuclear fallout

  12. References • Houdu, Guillaume. “Hypervelocity Nuclear Interceptor Proposed for Asteroid Impactors”. http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/2012/09/25/innovative-hypervelocity-nuclear-interceptor-spacecraft-mitigating-impact-threat-asteroids/. 25 September 2012 • Thangavelu, Madhu. “Putting Surplus Nukes to Good Use”. www.spacenews.com. 12 April 2010. • Wei, Bong. “Hypervelocity Nuclear Interceptors for Asteroid Deflection or Disruption”. 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference, 09-12 May 2011. • http://cosmoquest.org/forum/showthread.php/40725-How-to-Colonize-the-Moon-without-breaking-NASA-s-budget • http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/04/26/rush-on-to-find-fragments-of-california-meteor/ • http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/12/07/thousands-of-nearby-asteroids-are-big-enough-to-harm-earth-nasa/ • http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/programs/linear.htmlhttp://spacewatch.lpl.arizona.edu/ • http://timeforchange.org/nuclear-energy-and-nuclear-weapons-per-country • http://www.adrc.iastate.edu/ • http://www.defense.gov/news/briefingslide.aspx?briefingslideid=182 • http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/nasa-plans-armageddon-spacecraft-to-blast-asteroid-215924/ • http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-138 • http://www.missilethreat.com/missiledefensesystems/id.17/system_detail.asp • http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12842&page=1 • http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/deepimpact/mission/index.html • http://www.strath.ac.uk/space/research/missionsystems/asteroiddeflectiontechnologies/

  13. Backup Slides

  14. Interceptor Options • Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI) • Only takes 3 hours to set up battery of 10 missiles • Max possible ΔV of only 10 km/s • Complete missile – hard to modify • 12 m long, 1 m wide • NASA “Cradle” • To carry B83 nuc • 8.9 m long, 11,035 kg • Planned to use un-funded Ares V launch vehicle

  15. The Need for Nuclear • The momentum/energy transfer created by a shallow subsurface nuclear explosion is at least 100 times more effective than that of a standoff nuclear explosion • Extensive research shows only 3% of asteroid mass to impact Earth with a 15 days lead time • Only 0.2% if intercepted along the asteroid trajectory, i.e. anti-parallel • If capable of launching with a greater lead time, the probability of impacted mass as well as nuclear fallout greatly decreases • This 15 day period is simply a last resort limit

  16. Testing • Asteroid surveying missions not only raise awareness , but also detect possible test sites for the GOLD project • Optimal candidate: • Impact point behind Earth, to decrease nuclear fallout risk • Size of asteroid should start large and decrease to test sensor capabilities • Possible candidates • 2012 DA14 in February 2013 • 99942 Apophis which will have 2 flybys, 2029 and April 2036 • Liens: • The trajectories will be better understood • First shot without active nuclear device • Can increase in fidelity from there

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