National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Review

1. National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Review Committee for Operational Processing Centers Fred Toepfer & Dave McCarren 16-17 November 2010 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability 1

2. Purpose of Briefing • Provide NUOPC status update to COPC • Review some key items prior to ESG presentation 2

3. Outline • Recent Accomplishments • IOC-1 implementation status • Common Model Architecture • R&D Workshop • Near Term Priorities • DAPE Annex • Post-processing plan • Course of Action recommendations • Common Metrics • Draft for presentation to ESG • Discuss Agency Implementation Plans NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability 3

4. IOC-1 Update • IOC-1 Implementation • Scheduled on track for Q2 FY2011 • TOC Infrastructure upgrade completed in July • FNMOC members integrated end of October • Transition to operations began with scheduled completion on January 11, 2011 • IOC-1 Rollout • Lead TBD • ESG desired OFCM Lead • Terminology 4

5. CMA Accomplishments 2010 NUOPC Architecture Documents Content Standards Committee -  reviewing report findings and passing tasks to ESMF Core Team for implementation ESMF release 5.1 to include NUOPC Compliance Checker and Compatibility Checker NOGAPS programmed into alignment with ESMF NEMS implementation of ESMF adopted for NOAA Ongoing alignment with ESMF/NUOPC interoperability standards Proposed single column model development will be instrumental in identifying additional coupling/interoperability issues

6. IOC-1 Product Terminology Necessary as Roll Out strategy for public, Tri-Agency use, journals, funding agencies The CMA Committee should recommend standard terminology for NEMS and the NUOPC Architecture (“Layer”) The CMA Committee should recommend standard terminology for NAEFS and NUOPC ensemble The ESG should approve for Tri-Agency use

7. R&D Workshop Research and Development Workshop was held 16-18 Aug Workshop Objectives Review NUOPC progress Review Agency operational needs and identify common needs Review ongoing ensemble research Propose prioritized research and development agenda to meet common needs Prioritized R&D list to be presented to ESG Workshop summary submitted to Bulletin of AMS

8. Near Term (FY11-12) Actions • Implement the National Unified Ensemble Forecast System • NOAA/Navy partnership to improve probabilistic forecasts • Common Metrics to measure performance • NUOPC Common Model Architecture for Research transition to Operations • NUOPC Interoperability Layer into the Earth System Modeling Framework • Compliance Checker • Compatibility Checker • National R&D Agenda for Global NWP • Socialize to R&D Agencies • Presentations at AGU and AMS • Earth System Prediction Capability - Initiative • Grow partnership to other agencies, NASA, DOE, etc. 8

9. DAPE Annex • Use current Data Acquisition, Processing, and Exchange (DAPE) MOA • Recommend Annex that deals with joint multi-model ensemble operations • Draft Annex revised; reviewing with COPC • Will be discussed at a later session 9

10. Post Processing Plan • Post processing needs further discussion • Technical issues: QC of raw model outputs, bias correction, sophisticated calibration • Development of standard probability distributions of model parameters, joint probability products, other user products • Operations Concept: Who, What, When, Where, and How • Will coordinate and recommend a path forward to ESG, potentially incorporate into a second annex to the DAPE MOA for ESG approval 10

11. Post Processing Plan Recommendation for IOC-1 NOAA provides raw and bias corrected fields Recommendation for IOC-2 NOAA provides raw and bias corrected fields AFWA does primary post-processing for DoD mission products AFWA maintains Tri-Agency post-processing tool kit Post-processing coordinated by COPC JAG(s) (or whatever UEO Committee we recommend-must be same as other slide)

12. Common Metrics • Technical metrics considerations • Need a controlled comparison (i.e. model vs model) • TTP Metrics subcommittee drafted initial proposal – sent to centers and liaisons • Common verification requires: • Common climatology (i.e., for anom. corr., skill scores) • Common analysis and/or common set of observations • Parameters of interest • Common test cases • Request status of each agency’s implementation plan • Request regular status reporting 12

13. Common Metrics Table

14. Ensemble Management beyond IOC-1 Future issues involve ensemble members, post-processing, upgrades Potential options: COPC set up specific JAG COPC distribute tasks over existing JAGs Reconstitute the NUOPC UEO Committee under the ESG