National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Status Brief

1. National UnifiedOperational Prediction CapabilityStatus Brief NUOPC Tiger Team Steven Payne, Mark Surmeier, Fred Toepfer October 16, 2007

2. Status The primary mission of the NUOPC is to enable a Tri-Agency global atmospheric ensemble system, including the design standards, required research and development, operational implementation, dissemination and evaluation. Decision approved to implement NUOPC Phase I (10/9) • Establish management team and interim committees • Initiate Coordination meetings • Common model infrastructure and standards • Standard transition process • Unified ensemble operation CONOPS • Provide detailed impact and cost assessment • Requires decision on standards, code conversion, operations

3. Background • Oct 05: Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary NWP • Feb 06: Workshop investigated potential for increased collaboration • Recommended review of NUOPC alternatives • May 06: Tri-Agency memo established TT to analyze alternatives for increased collaboration with the following goals: • Accelerating improvements in operational performance • Creating opportunities for a more focused National research effort • Leveraging scarce resources • Aug 06: TT defined the alternatives and developed AoA • Focused on next-generation systems for global numerical weather prediction allowing for possible later expansion into other areas of numerical prediction. • Jan 07: Tri-agency selected Alternative 2 -- “Coordinated Research & Development with Coordinated Transition and Operations” • Mar 07: Initiated working groups to define Management Plan, Concept of Operations, Implementation Plan, ROM Costs for phased approach • Sep 07: Review and approval of NUOPC documentation and approach. • Oct 07: Approval to initiate Phase 1.

4. NUOPC Component System Application Driver ESMF Superstructure (component definitions,communications, etc Dynamics Physics (1,2) Analysis (1,2,3) -------------- Coupler Other Multi-component ensemble Forecast + Systems Stochastic forcing ESMF Utilities Post processor & Product Generator Verification (clock, error handling, etc) Resolution change - Focused R & D Developmental Test Center Vision: A National Global Modeling System

5. NUOPC Vision (2015) • A National System with a Tri-Agency commitment to address common requirements • Multi-component system with interoperable components built upon common standards and a framework such as the ESMF • Managed ensemble diversity • significantly improve forecast accuracy • quantify, bound and reduce forecast uncertainty • Joint ensemble • to produce most probable forecast e.g.high impact weather • Mission Specific ensemble products • Drive high-resolution regional/local predictions • Drive other down stream models • Establish a national global NWP research agenda to accelerate development and transition

6. NUOPC DEFINED - 2015 • NUOPC is an integration of ongoing efforts coordinated by a Tri-agency management organization leading to a unified global modeling system with: • Common infrastructure, coding standards, metrics, transition processes – to the degree required to share technology and eliminate unnecessary duplication • Common development and implementation of ESMF • Cooperation and coordination at the technology level • Common operational global ensemble and post processing by design • Coordinated research needs representing National global modeling research requirements • Developmental test support and focused research seed money to accelerate transition of critical technology • NUOPC is not: • An R&D or acquisition program • A unified management system for operations or acquisition • A unification of agency missions

7. National Need for Improved Capability • Increasing cost of natural disasters • Population density, location, value of property, violence of storms – same storm, ten times the cost of a few years ago • Protection of lives and property • Increasing sensitivity of military operations to environmental conditions • Global communications, precise weaponry, political cost of collateral damage • National defense, Homeland security • Increasing economic value of weather information • Transportation, agriculture, energy, business disruption • Next Generation Air Traffic System (NGATS) • Increasing cost of mitigation and evacuation • Cost to evacuate for Hurricane Rita • Increasing cost of fuel for ships and aircraft • Increasing public awareness and intolerance for failure

8. Potential Benefits • Establish a National System to focus on National Needs • Operations community and Research community working toward a common agenda • Improved ability to compete with other national systems (European, Chinese, Japanese, etc.) • More efficient use of shared resources • Model developers • Computing resources • Model architecture and software configuration management personnel • Fewer personnel to support external development • A more robust National ensemble forecast program • Accelerated improvement of a National Weather Operational Prediction Capability • Lives saved by earlier implementation of improvements, reduced hurricane warning area, fuel saved, reduced damage. • Improved agency capability to drive downstream applications (ocean, aerosol, cloud, etc.) to meet unique mission requirements (e.g. five-day hurricane track forecast, precise cloud-cover prediction) • Better operational backup through standardization and shared products • Enhanced research coordination; • Ability to entrain national talent with tools to quickly move research to operations • Access to larger national meso-scale development pool to address physics problems • Reduced duplication of R&D efforts and better utilized research dollars • R&D transition path into each Agency’s operation with common model architecture • Answers GAO, FCMSSR and DoD IG recommendations for "more jointness" and less duplication among agencies

9. How do we build a truly National global numerical prediction system? • Provide coordinated requirements list? • Provide effective transition path for new research and development? • Facilitate agreement on interoperable architecture? • Provide common metrics? • Provide mechanisms for developmental testing using operational system equivalents (DTC? Expanded visiting scientist program?) • Provide fora for focused discussion of GNWP research?

10. Implementation Strategy • Establish Management Structure • Establish Common Model Architecture (CMA) and standards • Initiate Common Support Infrastructure and capabilities – as appropriate • Begin necessary Software conversion to CMA • Identify the common technology requirements • Define National Research Agenda, Focused Research (as appropriate) and Begin deployment of Research infrastructure to accelerate transition to operations. • Align transition to operation processes • NAEFS Prototyping and Deployment • Evolve to next-generation system – Target FOC 2015 Building the Next-Generation Global Modeling System - Together

11. NUOPC cost-benefits Acceleration of existing investment Accelerates forecast improvement Leverages existing investments Cost avoidance Improved extreme event warning capability Hurricane evacuation General aviation safety Protection of military assets Entrainment of national effort Increased NASA participation FAA/NextGen support to NUOPC Single target for S&T organizations (NSF, ONR, NCAR, etc.)

12. NUOPC Implementation Schedule FY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Prelim Phase I Implementation Phase II Beta Test Phase III IOC-1 IOC-2 FOC MGMT REPORTG MOA Quarterly Updates to Principals STAFFING TT PM, TEMPS Full Staff CODE CONV. INIT.STANDARDS SOFTWARE CONVERSION MAINTAIN OPERATIONS CONOPS, Budget COMMS, IA, etc. NAEFS OPS ENS OPS TEST FOC STANDARDS PARTICIPATION OUTREACH Common Rqmts, Rsch Agenda DTC/VTC DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS PROGRAM REVIEW MTG ESG BRIEF EXTERNAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP REVISIT PDD/MOA

13. NUOPC Cost Schedule FY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Prelim Phase I Implementation Phase II Beta Test Phase III IOC-1 IOC-2 FOC TOTAL COST/y $1.0M $1.0M $3.1M $4.6M $5.6M $5.9M $6.7M $9.2M STAFFING & COORD. TT PM, temps Full Staff $0.9M $0.9M $1.5M $1.5M $1.5M $1.5M $1.5M $1.5M CODE CONV. INIT.STANDARDS SOFTWARE CONVERSION MAINTAIN $0.1M $0.1M $1.6M $2.1M $2.1M $0.2M $0.3M $0.3M OPERATIONS CONOPS, Budget COMMS, IA, etc. NAEFS OPS ENS OPS TEST FOC $1.1M $1.3M $1.3M RSCH COORD. Common Rqmts, Rsch Agenda DTC/VTC $0.6M $0.6M $2.6M ESMF SUPPORT ESMF OWNERSHIP $1.0M $1.0M $1.0M $1.0M $1.0M FOCUSED RSCH VSP, Lab & External Rsch $1.0M $1.5M $2.0M $2.5M

14. Backups

15. PM/Interim PM • The Program Manager (PM) will be recruited through one of the following two alternative methods: • Intergovernmental Personnel Act (IPA), funding to be equally shared by all three agencies • Existing or new Federal employee designated from within one agency, cost shared between agencies • Qualifications and Characteristics: • Senior Executive Series (SES) level equivalent. Aligns with the National perspective/importance of NUOPC. • Program Management expertise with strong general knowledge/experience in meteorology and numerical weather prediction. • In-depth understanding of the scientific and technical processes necessary for development of models • Knowledge of the Federal Planning, Programming, Budgeting and Execution (PPBE) process. • Tactful leadership – PM will be required to balance three distinct agency requirements and programmatics, and lead the management team through a most likely difficult developmental period. • Strong sense of the national imperative for NUOPC. • Capable of effectively representing NUOPC at the OMB/OSTP/Congressional level.

16. Cost Strategy • Costs phased to increase affordability • Joint funding kept to a minimum • Management • Common support capability as appropriate e.g. ESMF Architecture • Common research Infrastructure (e.g. VTC, DTC) • Joint funding increases incrementally as benefits accrue • One-time costs (code conversion and ESMF Architecture Implementation) phased over 3 years to minimize disruption and negative impacts

17. Approve Moving Ahead with NUOPC • Pro: • Recommended course of action from two years of study and workshops • Phase I carries minimal risk • Minimal $ cost to agencies, some disruption • Initiates Coordination meetings, sets standards • Less software conversion costs for models under development • Increases Tri-Agency coordination, prepares for full collaboration • Quantifies cost and impact • Continues momentum of two years of TT effort • Con: • MOA not in place • DoD fiscal uncertainty • Political uncertainty of upcoming elections

18. Projected Forecast Improvement Under NUOPC (Impacts all areas of prediction) NUOPC Capability Status Quo FY08 10 12 14 16

19. Cost Share Proposal • Shared costs (equal one-third shares to NOAA, AF, Navy) • Management costs • Joint operating costs • ESMF, DTC/VTC/VSP, Config Mgmnt, etc. • Agency-specific costs (borne by each agency individually) • Communications • Hardware infrastructure • Information Assurance issues • Code conversion costs – recommend equal thirds shares • Closely tied to common standards; true costs won’t be known until after standards are set in FY08-09 • NUOPC PM acts as chief engineer/cost arbitrator, recommends “equitable” cost shares based on cost impacts to each agency; ESG accepts or modifies recommendation • PM must show that over time he's keeping the total cost impact equitable to all sides, and minimizing the total cost impact