National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Status Review For

1. National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Status Review For NUOPC Executive Steering Group Fred Toepfer & Dave McCarren Kim Curry 6 May 2010 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability

2. Purpose of Briefing • Provide NUOPC Status update to Executive Steering Group • Decision Requested – • Review and approve Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) Charter

3. AGENDA • NUOPC Update • IOC-1 Update • Discuss NUOPC Charter/MOA update • Post-Processing Discussion • Committee Reports • Action Item Review • ESPC Update and Charter Approval - Curry • Principals Discussion

4. NUOPC Update Summary • Revised Committees underway • ESMF management agreement • ESMF funding in place • COPC – NUOPC coordination agreement • Regular liaison telecons • Briefings to OP center directors • Meeting with NSF program managers • Annual Status Review Workshop in preparation NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability

5. NUOPCGoals and Objectives - 1 Establish a National unified operational atmospheric prediction capability for the United States Joint operational ensemble of Navy and NOAA operational weather prediction systems (GFS and NOGAPS) Operational Capability built upon adding NOGAPS to North American Ensemble Forecast System(NAEFS) Agency post-processing of ensembles to meet agency product requirements (common post-processing if appropriate)

6. NUOPCGoals and Objectives - 2 Unified Technology Common Model Architecture built upon ESMF Technology component sharing Accelerated forecast performance improvement More Efficient National R&D Investment Clearly articulated operational requirements – National Research Agenda for global weather prediction Community development and involvement

7. FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM RESEARCH AGENDA CONOPS, IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, BUDGET NUOPC Schedule FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Prelim Phase I Beta Test Phase III Implementation Phase II FOC IOC-1 IOC-2 ADOPT INTEROPERABILITY STANDARDS SW INTEROPERABILITY INIT.STANDARDS DEVELOP FUTURE MODEL ARCHITECTURE EXCHANGE NAEFS DATA AND BIASED FIELDS, ARCHIVE, TRAINING FOC ENSEMBLE OPS, METRICS, TOOLBOX OPERATIONS CONOPS, BUDGET COMM, IA, HPC 0.5° 0.25° 0.1° VISITING SCIENTIST PROGRAM TRANSITION RESEARCH TRANSITION FACILITY (RTF) OUTREACH AMS CONFERENCES MANAGEMENT TT PM, TEMPS FULL STAFF AND AGENCY PANELS DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS MODEL RESOLUTION UPGRADE NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability

8. Near Term (FY10-11) Actions - 1 • InitialOperational Capability(IOC) on track for Dec 2010 Implementation • Interagency agreement to define participation in joint ensemble • Metrics (TTP Committee) • Center IOC requirements (Agency Liaisons, COPC)

9. Interagency MOA for Joint Ensemble Operations • Use current Data Acquisition, Processing, and Exchange (DAPE) MOA • Recommend Annex that deals with joint multi-model ensemble operations • Draft Annex prepared; reviewing with COPC • Addresses only operations portion of managing a multi-model ensemble • Suggest separate annex for joint or common post-processing • No rewrite of NUOPC charter recommended at this time

10. Post Processing • “Post processing” ill defined • Technical issues: QC of raw model outputs, Bias correction, Sophisticated calibration • Development of standard probability distributions of model parameters, joint probability products, other user products • Operations Concept: Who, What, When, Where, and How • Will coordinate and staff a position and incorporate it into a draft annex for ESG approval

11. IOC-1 Update • IOC-1 Rollout - discussed with OFCM • IOC-1 Implementation • Plan in place for December 2010 • EMC and FNMOC working together • Briefed at COPC • Communications intensive

13. NUOPC Global Managed Ensemble (IOC-1) (NAEFS) Aug08 Oct08 Dec08 Feb09 Apr09 Jun09 Aug09 Oct09 Dec09 Feb10 Apr10 Jun10 Aug10 Oct10 Dec10 Milestones Original ESG Agreed to Proceed Revised 12-Month Study on the Effect of Adding NOGAPS to NAEFS  Results Positive COPC Approved Adding NOGAPS to NAEFS Resolving Communications and Processing Issues NOGAPS Scheduled to be Added to NAEFS IOC-1 NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability

14. Planned Upgrades to NAEFS Baseline

15. Global Model Comparison

16. IOC-1 Benefits • 60 member multi-model ensemble based on three state-of-the-science prediction systems • Incorporates strengths of three systems • Demonstrated increased skill over a single ensemble system • Better representation of range and likelihood of events, better capability to capture likelihood of severe or rare events • Allows more coordinated improvement of prediction system – more eyes on problem • Provides estimate of probability or uncertainty for decision support and risk management • Provides more realistic initial and boundary conditions for less deterministic systems such as ocean, wave, hydrology and mesocale ensembles

17. Near-Term (FY10-11) Actions - 2 Stand-up Revised Technology Transfer Committee National Research and Development (R&D) Agenda for forecast ensemble operations Collecting Tri-Agency operational needs (TTP) R&D Workshop on Research – Prioritize Requirements and Needs Joint with NUOPC Annual Program Review Common Suite of Metrics for Joint ensemble

18. TTP Committee Chairman: Scott Sandgathe Activity Update Discuss: FY10 Objectives R&D Agenda Draft Common Metrics NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability

19. TTP COMMITTEE • Agree to prioritized R&D requirements • Agencies have provided list of operational needs • Draft cross-table of needs complete • Preparing for operators/scientists meeting August to create draft list of R&D requirements • Have met with NSF to discuss way forward • Agree to common suite of metrics for measuring ensemble performance • Current agency ensemble metrics reviewed • Proposed common skill metrics in agency channels for review and approval • Will address system and program metrics next

20. NUOPC Workshop Goals • Develop prioritized R&D agenda • Based on common operational needs • Would release to OAR, ONR, NSF, etc. • Review of NUOPC program • Preparation for operational multi-model ensemble • Implementation of common metrics • Implementation of common model architecture • Coordination of Tri-Agency development efforts • Planned prediction system upgrades (data assimilation, global, ensemble, post processing, mesoscale, other) • Tri-Agency development efforts underway • Ensemble products • Review of outside ensemble research efforts • TIGGE, THORPEX, etc.

21. Common Metrics • Technical metrics considerations • Need a controlled comparison (i.e. model vs model) • Must consider data, data QC, data assimilation, model resolution(H/L), ensemble perturbation creation, and post processing • Common verification must agree on: • Common climatology (i.e., for anom. corr., skill scores) • Common analysis and/or common set of observations • Parameters of interest • Common test cases • System metrics – NAEFS performance measures • Program metrics – NUOPC performance measures

22. Near Term (FY10-110 Actions - 3 Common Model Architecture (CMA) development underway Content Standards Committee (CSC) integrated into ESMF Management structure to design common implementation Single Column Model initiative (CMA) Development plan for the NUOPC Layer within ESMF being worked with operational centers

23. NUOPC Layer Development 3 Year Development Planned Statements of Work prepared for ESMF Development for both NOAA and Navy First year funding in place Technical Requirements from Content Standards Committee Single column model will be a prototype for NUOPC layer

24. CMA/CSC Committee • CMA: (Co-chairs) • Bill Lapenta (NOAA/EMC) • David McCarren (NUOPC) • CSC: • Tim Campbell (NRL/SSC) • Activity Update • Discuss: • CSC Prioritization • CMA Progress NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability

25. CMA COMMITTEE • Establish Content Standards Committee as formal ESMF committee • CSC-ESMF agreement in place • CSC proceeding with prioritization of interoperability objectives from CMA Interim Committee Report • CSC will begin tracking implementation of NUOPC standards • CMA address common physical architecture • Agreement to proceed on single column model • GFS-NEMS, GEOS-5, NOGAPS, COAMPS

26. FY10 Spend Plan

27. Action Item Review • NUOPC/COPC interaction • Joint Ensemble Metrics • IOC-1 Implementation/Rollout • Interagency Operations Agreement • Navy-AF Training CONOPS • Budget Update to AF NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability

28. ESPC Update and Charter NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability

29. ESPC/NUOPC Intersection • NUOPC • Focused on operational global atmosphere at weather time scales • Developing initial Tri-Agency management and collaboration including a common research agenda and a common model architecture • Evolution of existing agency Ensemble Systems • ESPC • Focused on the next generation systems • Focused on integrated earth system prediction • Primarily a revolutionary research and development effort • Includes decadal climate prediction

30. ESPC/NUOPC Intersection Both are a Tri-Agency collaboration on accelerating operational prediction capability Both rely on a common software/systems architecture and common research agenda NUOPC paves the way in collaboration for ESPC ESPC will benefit from NUOPC common software/system standards An ESPC goal will be to provide the next generation system for NUOPC

31. ESPC Charter Decision Requested: Approve ESPC Charter

32. Backups

33. Deterministic Global Model Comparison

34. Deterministic Global Model Comparison

35. Agency Operational Global Model Planned Upgrades - “Deterministic” Model

36. Agency Data Assimilation Plans

37. Multi-Model vs. Single Model Ensembles • Research has shown that combining forecasts from several models increases forecast skill • Impact of individual model error is reduced • Provides better information on forecast uncertainty • Key conclusions from recent ECMWF study: • Multi-model ensembles are more skillful than single model ensembles • The benefit is not just from having a larger total number of ensemble members • Adding a model with less-than-average skill to a multi-model combination usually increases forecast proficiency http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/118.pdf • Additional confirmation from recent NAEFS study: • Forecast improvements are gained not only due to the increased number of members in an ensemble, but also to the different combinations of models used http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F2008MWR2682.1

38. NUOPC Long Range Goals • Implementing a global atmospheric ensemble system designed to enhance predictive capability • Shared development among government agencies • Clearly articulating operational requirements and a corresponding National research agenda, with initial emphasis on hurricane track/intensity forecasts, joint wind and seas forecasts, and ceiling/visibility forecasts • Accelerating the transition of new technology to the Tri-Agency operating centers • Implementing ways to promote broad community participation in addressing the National research needs.

39. FY ‘10 Costs Summary 39 • NUOPC Architecture and Infrastructure: • $780 K to ESMF to begin NUOPC Layer • $260 K for model interoperability • Joint Development and Operations: • $520 for NAEFS IOC • $100 K Comms upgrades • Research to Operations • $200 K to develop common metrics and R&D agenda • $183 K for NUOPC committee support • Management and Overhead • $1,140 K for parts of 7 support staff • Total $3,183 K