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Prediction capability

This study aims to develop a quantitative relationship between far-side seismic signals and direct measures of active region strength, such as magnetic field strength and area. The goal is to improve the utility of far-side imaging for space weather predictions.

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Prediction capability

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  1. A Study of Seismic Signatures of Active Regions in Far Side Imaging for Applications to Space WeatherLWS TR&T Emerging Active Regions

  2. A Study of Seismic Signatures of Active Regions in Far Side Imaging for Applications to Space Weather“The main objective is to develop a quantitative relationship between the far side phase-difference signal and more direct measures of the strength of an active region, such as magnetic field strength, area, and helicity. The expected result is significant improvement of the utility of far side imaging for space weather predictions and the NASA LWS program.”1. - Statistical study of the relationship between the holographic seismic signatures of active regions and their magnetic and intensity configuration- Far side calibration - Near side calibration2. - Application of holographic diagnostics, both near side and far side, to simulations of active regions which will be produced by a closely related program.

  3. AR10808 Active Region NOAA-10923 Oct 31 -> Nov 10 2006 AR10923 sin(latitude) Prediction capability Active Region NOAA-10808 Aug 29 -> Sep 9 2005 sin(latitude) Carrington Longitude

  4. Calibrating the far-side signal

  5. Calibrating the far-side signal

  6. Calibrating the far-side signal

  7. Calibrating the far-side signal

  8. can fill in some of this area with 1 x 4 skip method (in progress…) “far-side” imaging of the near side 1 x 3 skip method actually extends well onto the near side!

  9. “far-side” imaging of the near side

  10. Calibration of the near-side signal Braun & Lindsey, 2000

  11. Calibration of the farside signal 2x2 Skips 1x3 Skips

  12. Calibration of the farside signal Phase Correction: Averaged Phase

  13. Calibration of the farside signal Can we improve the Green’s Functions?

  14. Improving the far side monitor • Success Rate Persistent, strong signal close to the East limb Compare to front side magnetograms 1-2 days later Give a probability number associated to an active region candidate • Adding the magnetic calibration

  15. Conclusions and future work • Calibration • Front side “farside” maps • How does the overlap of pupils affects the signal? • Revisit the Green’s functions • Can we improve by using separated rays/frequency ranges? • Ghost signature / near side artifact? • Application to artificial data • Success Rate --> work in progress • Do we see “emerging active regions” in front side maps? • Rings pipeline able to process a set of data centered in an Active Region • Catalog of Emerging Active regions

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