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RTF Residential Lighting Subcommittee

RTF Residential Lighting Subcommittee. Tuesday, March 4, 11am – 12:30pm. Introductions [11:00 – 11:10am] Subcommittee objectives [ 11:10 – 11:15am ] Review current measures (CFL, LED) [11:15 – 11:35am] Measure grouping [11:35am – 12:05pm]

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RTF Residential Lighting Subcommittee

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  1. RTF Residential Lighting Subcommittee Tuesday, March 4, 11am – 12:30pm

  2. Introductions [11:00 – 11:10am] Subcommittee objectives[11:10– 11:15am] Review current measures (CFL, LED) [11:15 – 11:35am] Measure grouping [11:35am – 12:05pm] LED cost and performance forecasting[12:05 – 12:15pm] Next steps [12:15 – 12:30pm] Agenda

  3. Develop proposal(s) for the RTF on how to group granular measures Develop proposal for the RTF on the use of forecasting for LED efficacy and cost Note the RTF also has residential T12 to HP-T8 measures (for kitchens and garages), but we are not addressing those measures in this subcommittee. Subcommittee Objectives

  4. Today – get initial response/feedback on presented material Mid-March – regroup and provide Staff with guidance necessary to develop measures Early April – [if applicable] review research plan for provisional measures with Research and Evaluation Subcommittee April 23 – Staff present measure assessments to RTF Subcommittee Timeline

  5. Current CFL and LED Measures

  6. RTF measure documentation pages • LED http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/measures/measure.asp?id=198 • CFL http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/measures/measure.asp?id=141 • Specialty CFL http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/measures/measure.asp?id=142 • RTF meeting presentations • CFL and Specialty CFL http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2013/10/ • LED http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2013/08/ Current CFL and LED Measures

  7. The large numbers of specific measures are a burden to programs. • Can we group measures to reduce the number of measures? • Program perspective: • Would like a small set of measures to make implementation and administration simple • In some cases, would like to tailor programs to specific, high-potential applications (e.g., high hours-of-use room types) • RTF perspective: • If the savings or cost vary significantly across granular measures, then we need to know how to weight the values of each granular measure to come up with an average for a group. • These weights are the relative volume of lamps going through the programs. • E.g., An All-Lumens CFL measure might be comprise of: • 5% 250-369 Lumens • 20% 370-664 Lumens (490 Lumen Midpoint) • 40% 665-1014 Lumens (840 Lumen Midpoint) • 20% 1015-1439 Lumens (1190 Lumen Midpoint) • 10% 1440-2019 Lumens (1690 Lumen Midpoint) • 5% 2020-2600 Lumens (2600 Lumen Midpoint) • These are not necessarily the RBSA weights Measure Grouping

  8. This 300 DI measures • Can we do some program-agnostic grouping? • Lamp types: Can we group some? (see next slide) • Lumens: probably not, because savings are proportional to this • Room types: • use an RBSA weighted average of all (assume DI programs don’t discriminate by room type)? • exclude low-use space-types from measure description? Measure Grouping – DI CFLs

  9. 10 lamp types is actually more granular than we can observe. Could we use the 5 type groups shown here? Measure Grouping – DI CFLs

  10. 30 DI measures • Use same grouping for other delivery mechanisms • Retail • Mail-by-Request • Unsolicited Mailing • Give-Away (or remove some of these delivery mechanisms) Measure Grouping – CFLsStaff Proposal

  11. 1) Leave existing measures as they are (sunset: January 31, 2017) • 1A) No additional measures • 1B) Develop grouped measures based on 2013 program volumes • This assumes that programs for the next few years will look like programs in 2013 • Programs would need to provide their data (for each delivery mechanism) to RTF staff • Subcommittee would need to define the desired groupings • Programs would need to use either the grouped or granular measure sets – they couldn’t cherry pick. • 2) Do the groupings proposed on the previous slide, which would not require program data for weighting • 2A) No additional measures • 2B) Develop grouped measures based on 2013 program volumes (same as Option 1B) Measure Grouping – CFLsOptions

  12. This 300 DI measures • This is 756 measures • Can we do some program-agnostic grouping? • Tech Type: Combine Inc and Hal. Remove CFL? • Lamp types: probably not, because these are already broad groups • Lumens: probably not, because savings are proportional to this • Room types: • Use the five room-type groups currently used for CFLs? Measure Grouping – DI LEDs

  13. 90 DI measures • For other delivery mechanisms, [3 lamp types] x [6 lumen categories] = 18 measures • Retail • Mail-by-Request • Unsolicited Mailing (we don’t currently have this one) • Give-Away (or remove some of these delivery mechanisms) Measure Grouping – LEDsStaff Proposal

  14. 1) Leave existing measure granularity, update values (current sunset: April 30, 2014) • 1A) No additional measures • 1B) Provisional grouped measures • Because LEDs are a relatively new and changing program measure, we can’t assume that future programs will look like past programs • Utilities would track which lamps are going through program, which would be used to revise the weighting assumptions in the provisional measure. • Additional research could be done to see what types of light bulbs LEDs are replacing for non-DI delivery mechanisms. • Will LEDs and LED programs be mature enough during research period to inform measures beyond the research period? • 2) Do the groupings proposed on the previous slide • 2A) No additional measures • 2B) Provisional grouped measures (same as Option 1B) Measure Grouping – LEDsOptions

  15. RTF prefers to use observable data only, unless forecasting can significantly improve the reliability of the estimate. • RTF LED measures to date have been out-dated by the time they reached programs because of rapidly changing cost and efficacy. • PNNL has developed cost and performance improvement factor forecasts. These could be used to adjust cost and performance data that we observe to the measure sunset period. • http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/ssl_trend-analysis_2013.pdf • Staff propose to use these forecasts. LED Cost and Performance Forecasting

  16. CFLs • 1) Leave existing measures as they are (sunset: January 31, 2017) • 1A) No additional measures • 1B) Develop grouped measures based on 2013 program volumes • 2) Do the groupings proposed on the previous slide, which would not require program data for weighting • 2A) No additional measures • 2B) Develop grouped measures based on 2013 program volumes • LEDs • 1) Leave existing measure granularity, update values (current sunset: April 30, 2014) • 1A) No additional measures • 1B) Provisional grouped measures • 2) Do the groupings proposed on the previous slide • 2A) No additional measures • 2B) Provisional grouped measures (same as Option 1B) • LED Cost and Performance Forecasting • 1) Use observed data, no forecasting • 2) Use observed data and PNNL forecasts Summary of Decisions Needed

  17. Discuss today’s presentation with your colleagues and constituents Meet in ~two weeks to select a path forward for RTF staff Inform and review a provisional research plan for LED grouped measures, if applicable. Meet with Research and Evaluation Subcommittee to review research plan, if applicable. Next Steps

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