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1. Exporthányad, exportkoncentráció és kitettség a külföldi kereslet ingadozásainak

   Soós Károly Attila MTA KRTK KTI szeminárium 2014. Június 12
2. Export concentration: explanations Export concentration is innegativerelationwith country size. Hirschman, A.0. (1945),National Power and the Structure of ForeignTrade, University of California Press, Berkeley; Kuznets, S. (1964), Quantitative Aspects of the Economic Growth ofNationsinLevel and Structure of Foreign Trade: Comparisonsfor RecentYears,Economic Development and Cultural Change 13 (Part II),1—106. old. It is inverselyrelatedtopopulationsize and level of economicdevelopment. Meilak, C. (2008), Measuring Export Concentration: The ImplicationsforSmallStates, Bank of Valletta Review, No. 37, pp. 35-48
3. Export concentration: explanations(cont’d) „(H)igh-techexportsfromtheemergingexportersaredrivenmainlybythesecountries’ participationintheinternationalproductionchainof high-techgoods, and export concentration, whilethesameexportsfromtheestablishedexportersarebasedontheirindustrialinfrastructure, R&D efforts, institutionalquality, and export diversification.” Abedini, J. (2013), High-Tech Goods Across Established and Emerging Exporters: A Panel Data Analysis, Emerging Markets Finance & Trade/ July–August, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 4–21.
4. Export concentration: explanations(cont’d) There is inverserelationbetween export concentrationand country size, but not a reallystrong one. There is no association between export concentration and the levelof economic development, and similarly none between export concentration and theshare of tradeinthenationaleconomy. Khalaf, J. (1974), Country Size And Trade Concentration,The Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 11, issue 1:
5. Export concentration: explanations(cont’d) Neither per capita GNP nor population has any important effect on geographicor commodity export concentration. Buta strongrelation exists between commodity export concentration and size definedin terms of GNP. Monaldi, V. – Yeats, A(1977), An Analysis of the Relationbetween Country Size and Trade Concentration. EconomiaInternazionale, pp. 358—71.
6. Export concentrationcausesexportearningsinstability Hamid, Z. (2008), Concentration of Exports and Patterns of trade:a Time-SeriesEvidence of Malaysia, The Journal of Developing Areas, 43(2), pp. 255-270. James, E. M. (1980), The Political Economy of Export Concentration, Journal of EconomicIssues, Vol. XIV No. 4 December. MacBean, A. (1966) Export Instability and EconomicDevelopment, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass. Samen, S. (2010), A Primer On Export Diversification:Key Concepts, Theoretical Underpinnings and Empirical Evidence, World Bank Institute, Washington, http://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/files/growth/EXPORT_DIVERSIFICATION_A_PRIMER_May2010%281%29.pdf Bejan, M. (2006), Trade Openness and Output Volatility, MunichPersonalRePEcArchive, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2759/
7. Terms of trade asmediator of concentration’s impacton export incomevolatility Jansen, M. (2004), Income volatility in small and developing economies: export concentration matters, World Trade Organization, Geneva
8. Openness, openness and export concentration: variousresearchresults Opennessreducesvolatility, concentration has no impact Opennessreducesvolatilityifexportsarediversified Haddad, M. – Lim, J. J. – Pancaro, C. – saborowski, C. (2013) Trade opennessreducesgrowthvolatilitywhencountriesarewelldiversified, Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 46, No. 2 Ifconcentrationis alsointheequationthenopennessdoesnotinfluencevolatility Cavallo, E. A. (2008), Output Volatility and Openness to Trade:A Reassessment, Economia: Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association,, v. 9, iss. 1, pp. 105-38. Bejan, M. (2006), Trade Openness and Output Volatility, MunichPersonalRePEcArchive, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2759/
9. World input-output database wiod.org
10. World input-otputtable (anyyearbetween 1995 and 2011) Number of countries: 40 (including 27 EU members) + Rest of the World Number of sectors: 35 Coefficientmatrix: 1435 X 1435 Finaluse: 5 items per country (finalconsumptionexpenditurebyhouseholds, NPISH and government, gross fixed capitalformation, and changesininventoriesandvaluables) Finaluse: 205 columnsintotal
11. 35 industries based on the CPA and NACE rev 1 (ISIC rev 2) classifications
12. 35 industries based on the CPA and NACE rev 1 (ISIC rev 2) classifications (cont’d)
13. Calculatingthe GDP, itsdomesticuse and export
14. Neil Foster, Robert Stehrer and Marcel Timmer International Fragmentation of Production, Trade and Growth: Impacts and Prospects for EU Member States WIIW Research Reports | 387 |May 2013
15. Extra-EU exports of goods and servicesin percent of thetotal and extra-EU exports of GDP in percent of thetotalin 2011 100 75 50 25 0 Italy Malta Spain Latvia Ireland Austria France Poland Cyprus Finland Greece Estonia Belgium Sweden Bulgaria Portugal Slovakia Hungary Slovenia Romania Denmark Lithuania Germany Netherlands Luxembourg Czech Republic United Kingdom Exports of goods and services Exports of GDP Source: Own calculations on the basis of wiod.org. Doubleexplanation Twofactors!!!
16. The largest GDP-exporting sectorsinsomecountries
17. Exposuretoforeigndemand 5SHARE-based exposureto foreign demand HH-based exposure to foreign demand The H – H index of theexport of GDP multiplied by the share of exported to total GDP The cumulative share of the five largest sectoral GDP-exports in total GDP Deceleration of the export of GDP The differencebetweenthegowthrate of the export of GDP in 2007 and themeangrowthratein 2008 and 2009
18. Estimation (OLS)(N=38 because LUX and TWN asoutlierswereomitted)
19. Conclusions Albeitthegeographicdistribution of exports has notbeen a centraltopic of thispaper, wehaveseenclearsignsshowingthatthe GDP exports of theCEECs (particularlythoseoftheCzechRepublic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) aresignificantly less concentratedonthe European Union thanwecouldthinkonthebasis of traditional, „gross” and „direct” export figures.
20. Conclusions(cont.d) The level of sectoralconcentrationofexportsinsome CEE countries, particularlyintheCzechRepublic, Hungary and Slovakia, asmeasuredintraditionalways, is ratherhigh. Engineering (and primarilyvehicleproductionwithinthelatter) play crucialrolebothinthehighlevel of concentration and inthesecountries’ participationincross-borderproductionnetworks. Consequently, the export concentration of thesesectorsmeasuredinexports of GDP is more moderate, notoutstandingininternationalcomparison.
21. Conclusions(cont.d) However, export concentrationinitselfdoesnotreflecttheexposure of a country’s economytoforeigndemand. The otherobviouscomponent of theexposure is theshare of exports (of GDP) intotalGDP. The latterindicator is ratherhighin most CEE countries, particularlyintheCzechRepublic, Hungary and Slovakia. Consequently, theexposuretoforeigndemandof theseeconomies is high; outstandinglyhighintheCzechRepublic, Hungary and Slovakia.
22. Conclusions(cont.d) Wecouldproducesome (weak) econometricevidenceconfirmingthatsuchstrongexposuretoforeigndemandentailsenhanceddangers of economicvolatility. Counteringthisdangerwith export reduction is out of thequestion (evenprotectionistwouldreduceonlyimports, notexports). Thus, thewaytofollow is diversification – underthecircumstances of ourkind of „modern” export concentration, justlikein more traditionalcases of exportersofprimarycommodities