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Consolidation of Operation and Research results for the Sochi Olympic Games

This project aims to consolidate the operational and research results of COSMO-RU, a mesoscale weather prediction system, for the Sochi Olympic Games. It includes the development of statistical and physical post-processing, downscaling, and forecast verification. The project also focuses on the development of a high-resolution model for mountainous regions and the adaptation of ensembles for the Sochi region.

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Consolidation of Operation and Research results for the Sochi Olympic Games

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  1. COSMO Priority Project CORSO “Consolidation of Operation and Research results for the Sochi Olympic Games” GdalyRivin, Inna Rozinkina Hydrometeorological center of Russia

  2. PP CORSO Part 1 Rome, 2011 COSMO-RU: current state GdalyRivin, Inna Rozinkina, Denis Blinov Hydrometeorological center of Russia

  3. 17 staff members COSMO-RU:11 - PhD, 4 - postgraduates, 2 - graduates MSU • 1. Technol. Line : D.Blinov,G.Rivin, I. Rozinkina; • 2. Snow : E.Kazakova, I. Rozinkina; • 3. T2m : G.Rivin, I. Rozinkina, E.Sapuntsova; • 4. Boundary layer: M.Chumakov,V.Perov; • 5. VERSUS-2 : A.Bundel, A.Muravev; • 6. h <= 2.2 km : D.Blinov,G.Rivin; • 7. Ensembles : D.Alferov,E.Astakhova, G.Rivin; • 8. Data Assim. :V.Gorin, M.Tsyrulnykov; • ART:A.Kirsanov, A.Revokatova, G.Surkova. • Mires : A.Yurova

  4. SYSTEM COSMO-RU COSMO-RU2 x =2.2 km COSMO-RU7 x = 7 km GME x = 30/20 km Domain: 900 km * 1000 km Grid: 420*470 * 50 Step: 2.2км Time step:15 сек Forecast: 24 час. Cores: 400 Domain: 4900 km * 4340 km Grid: 700*620 * 40 Step: 7км Time step: 40 сек Forecast: 78 час. Cores: 800 GME: initial and boundary data COSMO-RUsibx =14 km Domain: 5000 km * 3500 km Grid: 360*250 * 40 Step: 14 км Time step: 80 сек Forecast: 78 час. Cores: 48. Grid: 368 642 * 60Step: 30 / 20км Time step: 110 сек Forecast: 7 суток Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации

  5. April 13, 2011 Roshydromet decided to implement the system of mesoscale weather prediction COSMO-RUin operational practice as a base for use in Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia and other Roshydromet prognostic offices. KRASNAYA POLYANA Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации

  6. COSMO-RU07: domain, time of run with MPI Initial and boundary data:00, 06, 12and 18UTC, GME (DWD) Forecast: 78 h (00,12 UTC) 48 h (06,18 UTC) Grid step7 km Grid:700 * 620 * 40 SGI Altix 4700 (1664 cores)(832 processors Itanium, 64-bit, 3,3 Tb memory) Run time for 78 h. 19 min: 1024cores 33 min:512cores 59 min: 256cores 4340 km 4900 km Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации

  7. Initial and boundary data:00,06,12and 18UTC, GME (DWD) Forecast: 24h Grid step2.2 km Grid:420 * 470 * 50 (Moscow) 420 * 470 * 50 (Sochi) SGI Altix 4700 (1664 cores)(832 processors Itanium 2, 64-bit, 3,3 Tb memory) Run time for24h. 27 min: 400cores COSMO-RU02: domain, time of run with MPI Moscow h = 2.2 km Sochi h = 2.2 km Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации

  8. COSMO-RU 00 UTC, (the same for 12 UTC) Maps: 900Meteograms: 400

  9. COSMO-RU14: Siberia, time of run with MPI • Grid • step • 14 km • Grid: • 360* 250 * 40 • Run time for 78 h. • 27 min: 64 cores

  10. COSMO-RU07:MOSCOW, 25.12.2010_15 – 28.12.2010_21 (msc) WIND 500 гПа 700 гПа 850 гПа 500 м 10 м Т2м Td2м Т850 Т700 Т500 DAY and HOURS 25.12 26 december 27 december 28.12.2010 PRESSURE мм/3часа мм/час PRECIPITATION CLOUDSNESS 10 000 м 8 000 м 6 000 м 4 000 м 2 000 м 0 м CONVECTIVE CLOUDNESS Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации

  11. Baikonur (Байконур), 24 April 2010 Wind Velocity, m/c Pressure,gPa

  12. Baikonur (Байконур), 24 April 2010 T Pressure,gPa Т, ˚С

  13. COSMO-RU2, 12-23 February 2011, T2m(prepared by A. Bundel & Versus2)

  14. COSMO-RU02, September-November 2010, Psea, Moscow

  15. , COSMO-RU02, SOCHI-2014, T2m, 28.01.2011_15MSC

  16. , COSMO-RU02, SOCHI-2014,Precipitation, 28.01.2011_15MSC

  17. PP CORSO Part 2 Rome, 2011 Consolidation of Operation and Research results for the Sochi Olympic Games

  18. 12 staff members Roshydromet CORSO:7 - PhD, 4 - postgraduates, 1 - graduates MSU Task 1 (2.9 FTEs)The development of statistic. and physical post-processing and downscaling for «Sochi-2014» sport venues:D.Blinov,E.Kazakova,G.Rivin, I. Rozinkina, N. Volobueva; Task 2 (2.7 FTEs) Development and adaptation of COSMO EPSs for Sochi region:D.Alferov,E.Astakhova, G.Rivin; Task 3 (3.5 FTEs)The development of COSMO model version with horizontal resolution of less than 2 km for mountainous regions:D.Blinov,M.Chumakov,E.Kazakova,V.Perov, G.Rivin, I. Rozinkina, E.Sapuntsova; Task 4 (4.2 FTEs) Development of forecast verification for “Sochi-2014”.A.Bundel, A.Muravev.

  19. 2012: 3.95 FTE for Russian CORSO participants (1.35 others: Task 1 – 0.55; T2 – 0.3; T3 – 0.5; T4 - ?)

  20. Freeride Автор фотографий: Михаил Тигушкин Роза Хутор (Roza Khutor)14April 2011

  21. MOTIVATION 1. From COSMO model development: COSMO Science Plan 2010-2014 (publication date: 30.11.2010, p. 11) “From the scale of the targeted processes it becomes clear that the mesh-size of the model-system has to be of the order of 1-3 km. ... the COSMO Steering Committee decided to focus on the development of a model-system for the short to very short range and with very high convective-scale resolution.” 2. Meteorological support for Olympics “Sochi-2014”

  22. The main goal: To develop and improve the complex operational high resolution short-range forecast technology for mountain areas for winter weather events on base of COSMO researches (in example of Sochi area)

  23. PP CORSO: Downscaling for venues and local specific weather conditions High resolution model development WG3a-b, WG2 Downscaling for venues and local specific weather conditions Physical and statistical postprocessing WG4 Forecasts of probability of local weather events Ensemble high-resolution forecasting WG7 Instructions for forecasters for use of numerical results Verification WG5

  24. Description of individual tasks / Deliverables (10.2011-09.2014) Task 1. The development of statistic and phys. post-processing and downscaling for «Sochi-2014» sport venues: 1. Adaptation of COSMO post-processing techniques to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics. 2. Development of 1-D statistical models for local weather phenomena – «physical downscaling». Deliverable: Operational technology of downscaling for «Sochi-2014» sport venues. Results of conditional verification for different synoptic situations. Recommendations for users.

  25. Task 2 . Development and adaptation of COSMO EPSs for Sochi region. 1. Adaptation of COSMO EPSs to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics. 2. Development of COSMO-RU-EPS system. Deliverable: Operational EPS technology for Sochi region.

  26. Task 3.The development of COSMO model version with horizontal resolution of 2.2 km and less for mountainous regions: 1. Data set of land-surface properties, 1 km resolution 2. Assimilation of parameters of land-surface state observations (Sn, T) 2. Analysis of numerical aspects 3. Modification of parameterization and numerical schemes Deliverable:Operational technology COSMO-RU-Sochi model with patial resolution 2.2 km or less.

  27. Task 4. Development of forecast verification for “Sochi-2014”. 1. Collecting and processing observation data for verification. 2. Adaptation of available standard and mesoscale verification tools. 3. Determining criteria for weather dependent and conditional verification Deliverable: Numerical and graphical results of mesoscale verification using validated tools for object-oriented and multiscale analysis adjusted for the Sochi region.

  28. COSMO Priority Project CORSO “Consolidation of Operation and Research results for the Sochi Olympic Games” Thanks ! GdalyRivin, Inna Rozinkina Hydrometeorological center of Russia

  29. E-mail, Marco, 31 August 2011 The STC welcomes and generally accepts the proposition. It proposes, however, its formal modification which should include: an extended rationale(still pending), restructuring into separate tasks for operationally (Forecast Demonstration Project) and scientifically (Research Development Project) oriented activities (partly done)with clearly defined deliverables(partly done), 3. time schedule(done), 4. clearly defined involvement of international scientists(still pending), 5. list of persons involved specifying their FTEs and assigned tasks(done for Russian colleagues only). It is expected that the revised project plan will be consulted with the SPM (ongoing, but initial revised version has been heavily delayed) and send to the STC members before the September 2011.

  30. E-mail, Marco, 31 August 2011 Answer 1 The STC welcomes and generally accepts the proposition. It proposes, however, its formal modification which should include: an extended rationale(still pending), For us it was OBVIOUSLY because 1.1. From COSMO point of the view: COSMO Science Plan 2010-2014 (publication date: 30.11.2010, p. 11) “From the scale of the targeted processes it becomes clear that the mesh-size of the model-system has to be of the order of 1-3 km. ... the COSMO Steering Committee decided to focus on the development of a model-system for the short to very short range and with very high convective-scale resolution.” 1.2. Meteorological service for Olympics “Sochi-2014”

  31. E-mail, Marco, 31 August 2011 Answer 2 • The STC welcomes and generally accepts the proposition. • It proposes, however, its formal modification which should include: • 2. restructuring into separate tasks for operationally (Forecast Demonstration • Project) and scientifically (Research Development Project) oriented activities (partly done)with clearly defined deliverables(partly done), • Two DIFFERENT projects with DIFFERENT AIMS • FROST, WMO, PL – D. Kiktev • CORSO, COSMO, PL – G.Rivin and I.Rozinkina

  32. E-mail, Marco, 31 August 2011 Answer 3-5 • The STC welcomes and generally accepts the proposition. • It proposes, however, its formal modification which should include: • time schedule(done),Thanks. • clearly defined involvement of international scientists(still pending), • We hope that to the end of 2011 (may be to 15 November) we will do it. • list of persons involved specifying their FTEs and assigned tasks(done for Russian colleagues only). • See 4. • It is expected that the revised project plan will be consulted with the SPM • (ongoing, but initial revised version has been heavily delayed) • and send to the STC members before the September 2011.

  33. Description of individual tasks / Deliverables (10.2011-09.2014) Task 1 (2.9 FTEs)The development of statistic. and phys. post-processing and downscaling for «Sochi-2014» sport venues: 1. Adaptation of COSMO post-processing techniques to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics. 2. Development of 1-D statistical models for local weather phenomena – «physical downscaling». Deliverable: Operational technology of downscaling for «Sochi-2014 » sport venues. Results of conditional verification for different synoptic situations. Recommendations for users. Task 2 (2.7 FTEs) Development and adaptation of COSMO EPSs for Sochi region. 1. Adaptation of COSMO EPSs to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics. 2. Development of COSMO-RU-EPS system. Deliverable: Operational EPS technology for Sochi region.

  34. Description of individual tasks / Deliverables (10.2011-09.2014) Task 3 (3.5 FTEs)The development of COSMO model version with horizontal resolution of less than 2 km for mountainous regions: 1. Preparation of archive of land-surface properties with resolution 1 km. 2. Modification of parameterization schemes. 3. Analysis of numerical aspects. Deliverable:Operational technology COSMO-RU-Sochi model with patial resolution less than 2 km. Task 4 (4.2 FTEs) Development of forecast verification for “Sochi-2014”. 1. Collecting and processing observation data for verification. 2. Adaptation of available standard and mesoscale verification tools. 3. Determining criteria for weather dependent and conditional verification Deliverable: Numerical and graphical results of mesoscale verification using validated tools for object-oriented and multiscale analysis adjusted for the Sochi region.

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