Sociology’s three big questions

Sociology’s three big questions and THREE SMALLDUTCH QUESTIONS Wout Ultee Interuniversity Center for Sociology (ICS) at Radboud University Nijmegen, Netherlands Presentation at the Danish Institute for Social Research Copenhagen, Denmark December 11-12, 2003

THE FIRST SMALL DUTCH QUESTION LEAVING CHURCH

IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY DUTCH SOCIETY CONSISTED NOT SO MUCH OF CLASSES LAYERED FROM TOP TO BOTTOM BUT OF RELIGIOUS PILLARS RISING UP NEXT TO EACH OTHER THOSE PILLARS SHAKE SINCE THE 1960S WHY?

NEW QUESTIONS ON RATIONALIZATION RATIONALIZATION RISE OF SCIENCE

NEW QUESTIONS ON RATIONALIZATION RATIONALIZATION RISE OF SCIENCE RISING GENERAL LEVEL OF EDUCATION

NEW QUESTIONS ON RATIONALIZATION RATIONALIZATION RISE OF SCIENCE RISING GENERAL LEVEL OF EDUCATION RELIGIONS WITH FEWER MAGICAL MEANS OF SALVATION

NEW QUESTIONS ON RATIONALIZATION RATIONALIZATION RISE OF SCIENCE RISING GENERAL LEVEL OF EDUCATION RELIGIONS WITH FEWER MAGICAL MEANS OF SALVATION LEAVING CHURCH

PERCENTAGES FROM THE DUTCH CENSUS AND FROM SURVEYS CATH LIBPROT ORTHOPROT REST NONE 1930 1947 1960 1971 1983 1990 1997 34 36 38 39 36 33 32 37 34 31 25 19 17 15 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 4 4 3 5 5 6 14 17 19 24 32 38 39

PUZZLING FINDING: HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT THE PERCENTAGE OF CATHOLICS IN THE NETHERLANDS ROSE A BIT BETWEEN 1960 AND 1971, WHEREAS ‘EVERYBODY’ KNOWS THAT PRIESTS AND LAITY LEFT THE CATHOLIC CHURCH IN THRONGS?

TIME-SERIES OF CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA ARE MISLEADING ABOUT INDIVIDUAL CHANGE FOR CLOSED POPULATIONS, THEY ONLY TELL ABOUT NET CHANGES THEY ARE PARTICULARY MISLEADING IF COHORT CHANGES ARE TAKING PLACE IN THE NETHERLANDS THE CATHOLIC BIRTH RATE WAS MUCH HIGHER THAN THAT OF OTHER DENOMINATIONS (INCLUDING NO DENOMINATION)

DUTCH POPULATION BY ABSOLUTE NUMBER 1960-1971, ABSOLUTE NUMBERS ( * 1000) ACCORDING TO CENSUS AND ADMINISTRATIVE DATA CATH LIBPROT ORPROT NONE CENSUS 1960 BIRTHS 60-71 + DEATHS 60-71 - NET MIGRATION - OTHER LOSSES - CENSUS 1971 4,634 1,115 387 49 178 5,274 3,240 587 391 7 354 3,076 1,069 277 93 7 21 1,225 2,102 538 136 6 -569 3,079

THERE IS NO DUTCH CENSUS ANYMORE WHAT IS MORE, LOSSES SHOULD BE PINNED DOWN ON AGE OP PERSONS WITH KNOWN YEAR OF BIRTH NIJMEGEN-GROUP 1998 3M-MAC DATA SET RANDOM SAMPLE SURVEY OF DUTCH POPULATION DO YOU CONSIDER YOURSELF AS A MEMBER OF A CHURCH (if yes, which one)? DID YOU EVER CONSIDER YOURSELF AS A MEMBER OF A CHURCH (if yes, which one)? WHEN DID YOU STOP CONSIDERING YOURSELF AS A MEMBER OF A CHURCH?

IT IS KNOWN FROM CROSS-SECTIONAL SURVEYS THAT PEOPLE WITH MORE EDUCATION ARE LESS LIKELY TO BE A CHURCH MEMBER ARE THEY ALSO MORE LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH AND IF SO, WHY IS THIS SO? HYPOTHESES WERE TESTED WITH PARAMETERS FROM EVENT-HISTORY MODELS FOR 1998 3M-MAC DUTCH DATA

IN SIMPLE MODELS PERSONS WITH MORE EDUCATION (AS A TIME-DEPENDENT COVARIATE) ARE MORE LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH LIBERAL PROTESTANTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO DO SO THAN CATHOLICS, AND ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS ARE EVEN LESS LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH

GENERAL HYPOTHESIS BEHAVIOUR DETERMINED BY MOTIVES AND OPPORTUNITIES EDUCATION PROVIES A MOTIVE FOR LEAVING CHURCH AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS RELIGIOUS MARKETS OFFER OPPORTUNITIES FOR LEAVING CHURCH AND FAMILIES AND STATES LIMIT OPPORTUNITIES FOR DOING SO

SINCE STARK THE RATIONAL CHOICE APPROACH IS BIG IN THE SOCIOLOGY OF RELIGION THIS NAME IS A MISNOMER IANNACONE NOW ADVERTISES WITH THE LABEL MARKET THEORY OF RELIGION

THE LABEL MARKET THEORY OF RELIGION IS TOO BAD SINCE THE U.S. QUESTION IS ABOUT FREE MARKET VERSUS STATE RELIGION AND THAT WAY OF FRAMING THE QUESTION MISPLACES THE EMPHASIS FOR THE NETHERLANDS SINCE THE QUESTION THERE IS ABOUT THE FAMILY PLUS THE STATE VERSUS THE MARKET IN THE NETHERLANDS, THE STATE FULLY FUNDS NOT ONLY ITS OWN SECULAR SCHOOLS, BUT ALSO PROTESTANT AND CATHOLIC (AND WHATEVER) SCHOOLS

MARKET HYPOTHESES TESTED AND CORROBORATED; FINDINGS IF IN A PROVINCE THE PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION THAT DOES NOT BELONG TO A CHURCH IS HIGHER, CHANCES OF LEAVING CHURCH ARE HIGHER IF IN A PROVINCE THE GENERAL LEVEL OF EDUCATION OF THE POPULATION IS HIGHER, CHANCES OF LEAVING CHURCH ARE HIGHER

FAMILY HYPOTHESES TESTED AND CORROBORATED CHILDREN OF PARENTS WHO WENT TO CHURCH MORE FREQUENTLY ARE LESS LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH CHILDREN OF PARENTS WHO VOTED LEFT-WING, ARE MORE LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH CHIILDREN OF PARENTS WITH A HIGHER STANDARD OF LIVING, ARE LESS LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH CHILDREN FROM HOMOGAMOUS MARRIAGES ARE LESS LIKLEY TO LEAVE CHURCH THAN THOSE FROM

MORE FAMILY HYPOTHESES TESTED; SURPRISING FINDING ABOUT CHILDREN FROM RELIGIOUSLY MIXED MARRIAGES CHILDREN FROM RELIGIOUSLY MIXED MARRIAGES ARE LESS LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH THAN CHILDREN FROM RELIGIOUSLY HOMOGAMOUS MARRIAGES CHILDREN FROM MARRIAGES WITH ONE NON-RELIGIOUS PARENT, ARE MORE LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH THAN CHILDREN FROM RELIGIOUSLY HOMOGAMOUS MARRIAGES

FAMILY PLUS STATE HYPOTHESIS TESTED AND PARTLY CORROBORATED; FINDINGS: PERSONS WHO ATTENDED A PROTESTANT SCHOOL ARE LESS LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH THAN CHILDREN WHO WENT TO A PUBLIC SCHOOL; PERSONS WHO WENT TO A CATHOLIC SCHOOL ARE MORE LIKELY TO DO SO POSSIBLE EXPLANATION: LOCALLY PROTESTANT SCHOOLS FACED MORE COMPETITION FROM SECULAR SCHOOLS THAN CATHOLIC SCHOOLS?

HYPOTHESES ABOUT THE INTERPLAY OF OPPORTUNITIES AND MOTIVES TESTED AND CORRBORATED PERSONS WHO LEFT THEIR PARENTAL HOME AT AN EARLIER AGE AREMORE LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH IF PERSONS LEFT HOME EARLIER AND THEIR PARENTS WENT TO CHURCH MORE OFTEN, THEN THEIR CHANCES OF LEAVING CHURCH ARE HIGHER IF PERSONS LEFT HOME EARLIER AND THEIR EDUCATION WAS HIGHER, THEN THEIR CHANCES OF LEAVING CHURCHES ARE HIGHER

THE HYPOTHESES ABOUT THE INTERPLAY OF MOTIVES AND OPPORTUNITIES ACCOUNTED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE SIMPLE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN EDUCATION AND LEAVING CHURCH

THE SECOND SMALL DUTCH QUESTION WORKING WIVES AND THEIR HUSBANDS

QUESTIONS ABOUT CONNUBIUM, (WHO MARRIES WHOM, HOMOGAMY) CONNUBIUM ARE PART OF THE INEQUALITY QUESTION AND PART OF THE COHESION QUESTION

QUESTIONS ABOUT CONNUBIUM, (WHO MARRIES WHOM, HOMOGAMY) INEQUALITY CLOSURE MOBILITY CONNUBIUM ARE PART OF THE INEQUALITY QUESTION AND PART OF THE COHESION QUESTION

QUESTIONS ABOUT CONNUBIUM, (WHO MARRIES WHOM, HOMOGAMY) INEQUALITY COHESION CLOSURE ISOLATION / TIES MOBILITY CONNUBIUM CONVIVIUM ARE PART OF THE INEQUALITY QUESTION AND PART OF THE COHESION QUESTION

BOURDIEU ADDRESSED THE QUESTION OF THE REPRODUCTION OF INEQUALITY, THE TRANSMISSION OF ADVANTAGES FROM ONE GENERATION TO THE NEXT BOURDIEU FORGOT IT TAKES A MAN AND A WOMAN TO MAKE A CHILD AND BYPASSED THE QUESTION OF THE RECONSTITUTION OF INEQUALITY BY WAY OF CONNUBIUM

IT IS WELL-KNOWN THAT IN ALL COUNTRIES OF THE HIGHLY INDUSTRIALIZED WORLD COUPLES TEND TO CONSIST OF MEN AND WOMEN WITH THE SAME LEVEL OF EDUCATION IT IS LESS WELL-KNOWN THAT THE LABOUR MARKET POSITION OF SPOUSES (EMPLOYED, NONEMPLOYED) TENDS TO BE THE SAME TOO

THE VARIOUS QUESTIONS ON CUNNUBIUM

THE VARIOUS QUESTIONS ON CUNNUBIUM CONNUBIUM

THE VARIOUS QUESTIONS ON CUNNUBIUM CONNUBIUM CROSS-CLASS MARRIAGES

THE VARIOUS QUESTIONS ON CUNNUBIUM CONNUBIUM CROSS-CLASS MARRIAGES EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY

THE VARIOUS QUESTIONS ON CUNNUBIUM CONNUBIUM CROSS-CLASS MARRIAGES EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY (NON)EMPLOYMENT HOMOGAMY

AT FIRST SIGHT IT IS NOT PUZZLING THAT LABOUR MARKET POSITIONS OF HUSBANDS AND WIVES TEND TO BE THE SAME EDUCATION MAKES FOR LESS UNEMPLOYMENT AND IF SPOUSES HAVE THE SAME LEVEL OF EDUCATION, THEN (NON)EMPLOYMENT HOMOGAMY IS A BY-PRODUCT OF EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY

HOWEVER, ANALYSIS OF DATA FROM CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDIES LIKE NATIONAL LABOR FORCE SURVEYS MAKES CLEAR THAT (UN)EMPLOYMENT HOMOGAMY PERSISTS AFTER CONTROLLING FOR EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY AND ALSO AFTER CONTROLLING FOR THE LOCAL LABOUR MARKET UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

THAT IS, PROCESSES OF MUTUAL REINFORCEMENT ARE GOING ON HYPOTHESES ON PARTNER-EFFECTS HUSBAND-EFFECTS ARE STRONGER THAN WIFE-EFFECTS PARTNER-EDUCATION MAKES FOR MORE EMPLOYMENT RE-ENTRY AND FOR LESS EMPLOYMENT EXIT PARTNER-INCOME MAKES FOR LESS EMPLOYMENT RE-ENTRY AND FOR MORE EMPLOYMENT EXIT

HOW TO STUDY PARTNER EFFECTS? 1993 3M-MAC DUTCH DATA-SET WITH EDUCATIONAL HISTORY, (NON)EMPLOYMENT HISTORY AND INCOME HISTORY NOTE THAT AN ASSOCIATION IN CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA BETWEEN EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT MAY RESULT FROM LOW-EDUCATED PERSONS BEING FIRED MORE OFTEN OR FROM THEM BEING REFUSED A NEW JOB MORE OFTEN, OR FROM BOTH

FINDINGS ON WIFE’S EMPLOYMENT EXIT WITH HUSBAND’S EDUCATION AND INCOME AS TIME- DEPENDENT COVARIATES IN A MULTI-VARIATE EVENT-HISTORY ANALYSIS AN EMPLOYED WIFE IS LESS LIKELY TO EXIT EMPLOYMENT IF HER EDUCATION IS HIGHER AND SHE IS MORE LIKELY TO DO SO IF HER HUSBAND’S EDUCATION AND INCOME ARE HIGHER

FINDINGS ON HUSBAND’S EMPLOYMENT EXIT WITH WIFE’S EDUCATION AS A TIME- DEPENDENT COVARIATE IN A MULTI-VARIATE EVENT-HISTORY ANALYSIS AN EMPLOYED HUSBAND IS MORE LIKELY TO EXIT EMPLOYMENT IF HIS EDUCATION IS HIGHER AND LESS LIKELY IF HIS WIFE’S EDUCATION IS HIGHER

FINDINGS ON WIFE’S EMPLOYMENT RE-ENTRY WITH HUSBAND’S EDUCATION AND INCOME AS TIME - DEPENDENT COVARIATES IN A MULTI-VARIATE EVENT-HISTORY ANALYSIS A NON-EMPLOYED WIFE IS MORE LIKELY TO RE-ENTER EMPLOYMENT IF HER EDUCATION IS HIGHER SHE IS MORE LIKELY TO RE-ENTER IF HER HUSBAND’S EDUCATION IS HIGHER AND SHE IS LESS LIKELY TO RE-ENTER IF HER HUSBAND’S INCOME IS HIGHER

FINDINGS ON HUSBAND’S EMPLOYMENT RE-ENTRY WITH WIFE’S EDUCATION AS A TIME-DEPENDENT COVARIATE IN A MULTI-VARIATE EVENT-HISTORY ANALYSIS A NON-EMPLOYED HUSBAND IS MORE LIKELY TO RE-ENTER EMPLOYMENT IF HIS EDUCATION IS HIGHER AND HIS CHANCES OF RE-ENTRY DO NOT DEPEND UPON THE EDUCATION OF HIS WIFE

THE THIRD SMALL DUTCH QUESTION COMPULSORY SCHOOLING AND EDUCATIONAL MOBILITY

DID THE EXTENSION OF STATE COMPULSORY SCHOOLING RESULT IN LESS DOWNWARD EDUCATIONAL MOBILITY? CHANGES IN THE NETHERLANDS DURING THE TWENTIETH CENTURY

ONCE MORE THE PROBLEM OF INEQUALITY INEQUALITY CLOSURE MOBILITY

ONCE MORE THE PROBLEM OF INEQUALITY INEQUALITY CLOSURE MOBILITY FATHER-SON CLASS MOBILITY

ONCE MORE THE PROBLEM OF INEQUALITY INEQUALITY CLOSURE MOBILITY FATHER-SON CLASS MOBILITY FATHER-SON AND FATHER-DAUGHTER EDUCATIONAL MOBILITY

Previous Research on the Netherlands: Educational mobility increased according to: loglinear models with educational distributions fitted with trend constraints on uniform association and diagonal densities

Present research: data • Stacked data file from 31 surveys • 21,899 men/20,903 women; age over 25 • Fifteen 5-year birth cohorts (1900-1974) • Father’s education 4 categories (low – high) • Daughter’s/Son’s education 4 categories (low – high)

Sociology’s three big questions