Allied Maritime Command

1. Allied Maritime Command Maritime Security at a Crossroads: Operationalising the Allied Maritime Strategy Professor James Henry Bergeron Chief Political Advisor Allied Maritime Command (comments personal)

2. Agenda • MarCom – Who we are • Operations • OCEAN SHIELD • ACTIVE ENDEAVOUR • UKRAINE RESPONSE • Revitalisation of NATO’s maritime forces • Questions and Discussion

3. NATO – Maritime Evolution 1949 - 2009

4. The Alliance Maritime Strategy • Deterrence and Collective Defence • Crisis Management • Cooperative Security, Outreach and Partnership • Maritime Security • Signed in 2011 needs to be fully implemented • Maritime Security is the bedrock on which all AMS tasks are achieved.

5. MarCom Roles and Responsibilities “ HQ MARCOM is responsible for maritime competency and acts as NATO's principal maritime advisor. It maintains comprehensive situational awareness throughout the maritime environment, and is ready to command a maritime heavy SJO or act as the Maritime Component (MCC) to support up to a MJO+.”

6. Maritime NATO 2014 • Reform of Maritime Security Operations: Extension/Reform of Operation Active Endeavour and Ocean Shield: Expand beyond CT and CP; greater reliance on Associated Support • Revitalisation of NATO’s Standing Naval Forces; better training, varied missions; regional exercises and engagement; a full spectrum Task Force structure? (MCM, C4ISR, Interoperability) • Explore new affiliations with existing CTFs as follow-on maritime forces (potential on-call Maritime Contingency Force) • Maintaining Strategic Engagement and Situational Awareness on the Seas • Enhanced maritime engagement with Partners • Training and Exercise: making a success of CFI at Sea • Maintain NATO-EU cooperation in maritime security; explore ways to deepen it. EUMSS-AMS discussion?

7. Reforming Op ACTIVE ENDEAVOUR • Mission • Art 5 Response to 9/11 to counter the threat of maritime terrorist activities – CT in a single operational environment? • Maritime Situational Awareness and engagement is key aspect - 5 partners (Russia, Morocco, Israel, Georgia, Ukraine) • 13 yrs old – regional relevance has waned – seen as narrow when placed alongside growing security challenges of the Med region - Mission Review debate ongoing. • Intent • Move to a Network Operation less reliant on military forces • Respond to regional concerns and security challenges by broadening operation but with approvals clearly defined. • Ensure a Joint approach with other environments and partners. • End state • Maintain Connectivity through “regional network”. • Ensure presence in Mediterranean. • Reinvigorate Partnerships with Med Dialogue/MOU nations.

8. Counter Piracy Operations • Long history of Piracy off the Horn of Africa • International response to piracy in 2008 • Coincide with WFP tasking into Somalia • EU Operation ATALANTA launched end of 2008 • NATO and Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) engaged in 2009 • ‘Big 3’ and Independent Deployers: Unity of Effort

9. Piracy Incident Rate Incidents - 12 Month Moving Average Military Containment IRTC Military Protection Dhows in Indian Ocean Piracy Merchant Armed Protection Pre-crisis situation restored GoA Piracy Surge

10. Mission Comparison

11. Reforming Op OCEAN SHIELD • Mission • Coordinate NATO’s contribution with the International community – CMF, EUNAVFOR, Independent deployers via SHADE • Increase regional maritime security capacity within means • Mandate now extended to end of 2016 • Intent • Thorough overhaul of OPLAN now underway • Broaden Regional Engagement within a Focused Presence approach • Desired Effect • Indian Ocean crucial area to the Alliance. Maintains forward presence in an unstable area • Less fixation with low end operations – but able to respond should piracy re-emerge • Show NATO relevance to the region and to the Alliance

12. Impact of the Ukraine Crisis? • Deep change in NATO-Russian relations (or reset to 1979); partnership activity stopped. • Renewed emphasis on indivisible Alliance security - reassurance of Eastern European allies; reassertion of Alliance capabilities and resolve. • Closer defence and security cooperation with Ukraine. • The Land has bounded back as a critical conflict domain. (Mali, CAR, now Ukraine). • Sharper edge to the ‘from Deployed to Prepared NATO’ idea. • Likely to inform all aspects of the Summit, but main outlines will survive

13. Maritime Assurance Measures • Immediate Assurance post-Ukraine Crisis • Baltic Presence – SNMCMG1 activation. • Mediterranean Focus is priority for SNMGs. • Black Sea exercise programme will be maintained. • OOS to be maintained, but not with SNMGs • Additional forces identified for groups • Follow-on Measures • Permanent Baltic and Mediterranean presence – more Exercises. Black Sea presence as Council decides. • SNF Review – expand the size and capabilities of the groups to IRF standard. • Back up deployments with effective STRATCOM. • Longer-term Considerations • SACEUR Military Strategic posture review:NCS/NFS, Response Forces, Contingency Planning, etc. • Impact of Ukraine on the Alliance Maritime Strategy

14. Revitalising NATO’s Naval Forces • 4 Standing Naval Groups represent majority of NATO’s IRF • 2 Mine Countermeasures Groups, 2 Naval Groups • SNF Challenges • 47 year old design – suffered from capability contraction, force flow fatigue leading - excessive demand on too small a force. • Growing disconnect between tasking: Operations vs Contingency vs Training: What is the right balance? • Fit for 21st Century NRF? Littoral challenges v blue-water posture. • Reforms being considered: • Inject broader capabilities within all groups • Reform operations • Adjust schedule, more exercises, inject variety; • Champion affiliations with national task groups as an on-call contingency force. • Fewer exercises – greater mass – concentrate effort.

15. The Littoral 2045: Crisis Response, HA/DR • Global population is expected to grow from 7.2Bn to 8.3 – 10.9Bn • 70% of that growth will be in the poorest 24 countries • 70% Urban, most on the coast, much in shanty-town conditions • Urbanisation now at 1.3m / week • 280 mega-cities with over 20m inhabitants • Sea-levels rise by 0.3 – 0.4m • Almost all have access to internet by 2030 • Maritime Zone

16. Allied Maritime Command Discussion?