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Update on the Hong Kong Economy for The Task Force on Economic Challenges Government Economist 3 April 2009

Update on the Hong Kong Economy for The Task Force on Economic Challenges Government Economist 3 April 2009. Global economic situation continued to worsen…. US: recession in 2009 likely to be the worst since WWII. EU and Japan likewise in dire state. Asia’s recession deepened further.

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Update on the Hong Kong Economy for The Task Force on Economic Challenges Government Economist 3 April 2009

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  1. Update on the Hong Kong Economy for The Task Force on Economic Challenges Government Economist 3 April 2009

  2. Global economic situation continued to worsen…

  3. US: recession in 2009 likely to bethe worst since WWII

  4. EU and Japan likewise in dire state

  5. Asia’s recession deepened further (*) January figures.

  6. Guangdong’s processing exportsand imports markedly down

  7. Export orders rebounding

  8. Hong Kong economic situation

  9. Latest local developments in 2009 • Decline in exports even steeper in January and February • Retail sales fell in January and February combined • Flat prices stabilised after an extended period of subdued activities • Credit conditions eased somewhat in general, but remain tight for sectors hit direct by the shrinking trade flows (e.g. I/E trade and logistics) • Unemployment rate risen further; employment on a general downtrend

  10. External trade

  11. Exports sharply down

  12. Indicators of external trade all down(year-on-year rate of change) (#) Crude estimates.

  13. Domestic sector

  14. Investment also deteriorated on dimmer prospects Private consumption fell in 2008Q4

  15. Consumption and investment:Relevant indicators

  16. Financial services

  17. Activities are all down

  18. Property market

  19. Property market held stable over the past 3 months

  20. but Government’s increased construction to provide some offset Fewer new private construction projects… (*) Excluding injection into WKCD.

  21. Labour market

  22. Unemployment rate rising markedly across-the-board Notes: (1) The trading sector includes import/export trades and wholesale trade. (2) The logistics sector includes freight transport, storage, postal and courier services. (3) Provisional figures. Source: General Household Survey, Census and Statistics Department.

  23. Total job losses by sector since Jun-Aug 2008 Notes: (1) The trading sector includes import/export trades and wholesale trade. (2) The logistics sector includes freight transport, storage, postal and courier services. (3) The figures being listed here are provisional. Source: General Household Survey, Census and Statistics Department.

  24. Feedback from SMEs

  25. Credit situation easing somewhat since early 2009(% of SMEs firms reporting tighter than normal credit situation)

  26. SMEs: Firm numbers and employmentboth down

  27. Employment in SMEs under heavy downward drag amid economic downturn

  28. 2009 outlook

  29. Further mark-down by private sector analysts on Hong Kong’s GDP in 2009

  30. End

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