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Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more …

Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more …. COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow. C OSMO is C ool!. Impressive amount of work is being done! Forecast quality is getting better and better (albeit user expectations are possibly rising even quicker …)!. Relative value – Alert level „yellow“.

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Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more …

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  1. Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow

  2. COSMO is Cool! • Impressive amount of work is being done! • Forecast quality is getting better and better (albeit user expectations are possibly rising even quicker …)!

  3. Relative value – Alert level „yellow“ (03h, 06h and 12h accumulations, cut-off +03h) + useful - useless insensitive … sensitive … … against false alarms

  4. COSMO is Cool! • Impressive amount of work is being done! • Forecast quality is getting better and better (albeit user expectations are possibly rising even quicker …)! • However: Potential synergies (communication, coordination, cooperation) are maybe not fully exploited.  Can we make COSMO even cooler?

  5. Science Plan: Aim • “… summarising the current challenges, • speculating on future directions in an educated manner • offering concrete proposals ( Priority Projects) how to meet these given the limited resources.” Timeframe: expected developments in the next 5 yrs with an outlook out to 10 yrs ahead.

  6. Science Plan: Long-term strategy (~2015) • Stay at the high end of operational NWP model resolution: • very high resolution (1 km) • short to very-short time-scale • deterministic as well as probabilistic (coarser?) • New: environment modelling • Also: climate modelling

  7. Science Plan:Implications (I) • Assimilation: • appropriate scheme for highly non-linear convective-scale processes • ensemble assimilation system • Dynamics and numerics: • steep slopes • closer coupling between the dynamical core an the parameterisations • Physics • basic assumptions / approximations still valid? • unified schemes (e.g., turbulence / shallow convection) • 3D schemes?

  8. Science Plan:Implications (II) • Ensembles: • appropriate perturbations for ICs, BCs, and representation of model errors • predictability • Interpretation and Applications • interpretation • Verification • appropriate verification scores, deterministic as well as probabilistic

  9. Priority Projects (PPs) • CDC: Conservative dynamical core • COLOBOC: Consolidation of Lower Boundary Conditions • CONSENS: CONSolidation of COSMO ENSemble • KENDA: Km-Scale Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation • Sat-Cloud: Assimilation of satellite data with clouds and over land • UTCS: Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection Scheme • VERSUS 2: VERification System Unified Survey

  10. PP CDC: Conservative dynamical core • conservation! • finite volumes, which may also prove to be beneficial for steep slopes

  11. PP Sat-Cloud: Assimilation of satellite data with clouds and over land • Extend 1D-Var efforts (cloud-free, over the sea) to cloudy areas and land points • Should help to improve the humidity initial conditions.

  12. PP VERSUS 2: VERification System Unified Survey • Extension of VERSUS • Implementation and use in all COSMO member states

  13. PP CONSENS: CONSolidation of COSMO ENSemble • Merge COSMO-LEPS and COSMO-SREPS to obtain an ensemble system for days 2-5. • Boundary conditions for COSMO-DE-EPS

  14. PP COLOBOC: Consolidation of Lower Boundary Conditions • Merge all (well advanced) activities related to the lower boundary condition and consolidate these developments • external parameters • TERRA (coupled, stand-alone, SCM) • snow • urban module • mosaic/tile

  15. Priority Tasks (PTs) • PP SPRT (“Support Activities”) has been transformed into PT “Support Activities” • Consolidation of cumulus parameterisation scheme(s); coordination of efforts within WG 3 as well as task (v) of PP UTCS • Consolidation of post-processing routines • Assessment of humidity bias

  16. Planning and reporting cycle • planning (PPs, PTs): • driven by Science Plan • responsibility: SMC (WG coordinators & PP leaders) • initiation: a month ahead of the COSMO User Seminar • continuously: work packages (WPs) within the WGs • reporting (PPs, PTs, WPs): • 4 times per year (main (scientific) reporting at General Meeting and User Seminar, intermediate reporting by end of Nov & May)

  17. Communication:COSMO User Seminar • early March (e.g., 9-11.3.2009), in Langen (Germany) • ideal opportunity for workshops for PPs (and WGs)(e.g. on 11/12/13.3.2009)

  18. More on communication, coordination, and cooperation … • “What can COSMO do for me?” • Let us (WG coordinators, PP leaders, SPM, STC) know … • We will try our best! • “What can I do for COSMO?” • Let COSMO (i.e., your WG / WG coordinator, your PP / PP leader, the SPM, the STC) know (what you do) … • Please try your best!

  19. More on communication, coordination, and cooperation … • www.cosmo-model.org • cosmo-wg?@cosmo-model.org • cosmo-all@cosmo-model.org

  20. Let’s make COSMO even cooler! Let’s start right here and now: in Cracow!

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