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Demographic Study Update for the Katonah-Lewisboro Union Free School District

Demographic Study Update for the Katonah-Lewisboro Union Free School District. Prepared by Statistical Forecasting LLC November 21, 2013. Statistical Forecasting LLC. Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area.

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Demographic Study Update for the Katonah-Lewisboro Union Free School District

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  1. Demographic Study Update for the Katonah-LewisboroUnion FreeSchool District Prepared by Statistical Forecasting LLC November 21, 2013

  2. Statistical Forecasting LLC • Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area. • Performed demographic studies for approximately 100 school districts in NY & NJ. • Demographic consultant for the NYC Public Schools since 2006.

  3. Richard S. Grip Ed.D. • Executive Director • Doctorate from Rutgers University Graduate School of Education in Educational Statistics and Measurement. • Numerous publications on school demography and presentations nationally. • Testified as an expert witness on school demography in several court cases.

  4. Purpose of the Study • Project grade-by-grade enrollments for 2014-15 through 2023-24 using district historical enrollments, birth data, home sales, community age structure, and new housing starts. • Update to previous study completed in September 2012.

  5. Results from 2012 Report

  6. Katonah-Lewisboro School District Sending AreaDemographic Characteristics • 91.4% White, 3.5% Asian, 3.9% Hispanic • Public school children per household, ages 5-17 = 0.620 • Bachelor’s Degree or Higher = 69.3% • Median family income = $180,159 • 6,796 housing units, of which 91.9% are occupied. • Median value of owner-occupied unit = $715,400. • Nearly 92% of homes are 1-unit (attached or detached)

  7. District Overview • Six schools in the district in a K-5 (4), 6-8 (1), 9-12 (1) configuration. • District’s September 2013 enrollment was 3,374, which is a loss of 741 students since peak enrollment in 2005-06. • Cohort-Survival Ratio method (CSR) was used to project enrollment five years into the future.

  8. School Locations

  9. Cohort Survival Ratio Method • Ratios are calculated for each grade progression. (Ex. 100 1st graders in 2012-13 become 95 2nd graders in 2013-14 = 0.95) • Survival ratios were computed for the last 20 historical years. Five-year and six-year averages were computed in this analysis and used to project future enrollments.

  10. Historical Enrollment 1994-95 to 2013-14

  11. Enrollment Change by Year

  12. Historical Enrollment by Level

  13. First Grade Replacement • Negative first grade replacement has occurred since 2006-07. • Number of graduating 12th grade students is greater than the number of first grade students replacing them in the next year. • The district lost 78 students in 2013-14 due to this phenomenon, as 288 twelfth graders graduated in 2012-13 and were replaced by 210 first grade students.

  14. Historical First Grade Replacement

  15. Enrollment Change vs. First Grade Replacement

  16. Birth Rates and Birth-to- Kindergarten Survival Ratios

  17. Births from 2002-2011

  18. Age Pyramid – Katonah-Lewisboro Sending Area in 1990

  19. Age Pyramid – Katonah-Lewisboro Sending Area in 2000

  20. Age Pyramid – Katonah-Lewisboro Sending Area (2007-2011 ACS Data)

  21. Age Pyramid – Westchester County2012

  22. Housing Growth • Potential for 21 SF homes (Bailey Hall) in Katonah. • 18 public school children are projected from the development. • 14 building permits were issued from 2008-2013 in Bedford in the area served by the district. • Potential for 100 homes (46 are multi-family units) in Lewisboro. • 61 public school children are projected from the developments in Lewisboro. • 20 COs were issued from 2008-2013 in Lewisboro. • No potential developments in North Salem or Pound Ridge in areas served by the district.

  23. Home Sales

  24. Vacant Housing • If occupancy increases to 2000 levels (94.5%), 179 more units would be occupied. • Using student yield of 0.620, this would result in additional 111 schoolchildren. • Increase of 8.5 children per grade in district. • Increase of 2.1 children per grade per elementary building in district.

  25. K-12 Enrollment Projections 2014-15 to 2023-24

  26. Projected First Grade Replacement

  27. Enrollment Projections by Grade Configuration

  28. Elementary School Projections

  29. Full-Day Kindergarten • Projections were also computed for the 10-year period assuming full-day kindergarten. • Little difference between projections with half-day kindergarten and full-day. • With full-day kindergarten, additional 17-29 children district-wide by 2018-19 and 27-44 by 2023-24.

  30. Summary • Enrollment is projected to be 2,635-2,650 students in the 2018-19 school year, a loss of 724-739 students from the 2013-14 enrollment of 3,374 students. • At the end of 10 years, enrollment is projected to be 2,172-2,181 which would be a loss of 1,193-1,202 students

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