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Meteorology 415

Meteorology 415. Contest 2 Elizabeth City, NC and Elkins, WV October 11, 2011. Elizabeth City, NC. Elizabeth City, NC.

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Meteorology 415

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  1. Meteorology 415 Contest 2 Elizabeth City, NC and Elkins, WV October 11, 2011

  2. Elizabeth City, NC

  3. Elizabeth City, NC FAA Identifier: ECG Lat/Long: 36-15-38.0900N / 076-10-28.4600W36-15.634833N / 076-10.474333W36.2605806 / -76.1745722(estimated) Elevation: 12 ft. / 3.7 m (surveyed) Variation: 07W (1975) From city: 3 miles SE of ELIZABETH CITY, NC

  4. Elizabeth City Observations • KECG 111754Z 09006KT 5SM -RA BR BKN070 OVC095 21/19 A3005 RMK AO2 RAB1657 SLP176 P0003 6//// T02110189 10228 20206 58004= • KECG 111854Z 06006KT 7SM FEW090 22/19 A3003 RMK AO2 RAE21 SLP167 P0000 T02170194= • KECG 111954Z 03006KT 9SM BKN080 OVC100 22/19 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP157 T02170194= • KECG 112054Z 06011KT 10SM SCT032 OVC080 22/19 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP156 60000 T02170189 56020= • KECG 112154Z 07006KT 7SM FEW065 SCT095 BKN120 22/19 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP155 T02170194= • KECG 112254Z 09005KT 6SM BR BKN090 BKN120 21/19 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP152 T02110194= • KECG 112354Z 08003KT 5SM BR OVC090 21/19 A2998 RMK AO2 RAB36E46 SLP153 P0000 60000 T02060194 10222 20206 55004= • KECG 120054Z 00000KT 5SM -RA BR SCT010 BKN020 OVC090 21/20 A2998 RMK AO2 RAB03 CIG 015V037 SLP152 P0001 T02060200= • KECG 120058Z 00000KT 5SM -RA BR SCT009 BKN020 OVC095 21/19 A2998 RMK AO2 CIG 015V037 P0000= • KECG 120054Z 00000KT 5SM -RA BR SCT010 BKN020 OVC090 21/20 A2998= • KECG 120135Z 00000KT 9SM BKN007 OVC016 20/18 A2998 RMK AO2 RAE01 CIG 005V009 P0000= • KECG 120154Z 28003KT 6SM BR BKN007 BKN012 BKN028 19/19 A2998 RMK AO2 RAE01 SLP151 P0000 T01940189= • KECG 120201Z 30003KT 7SM FEW007 SCT012 BKN028 19/18 A2998 RMK AO2= • KECG 120154Z 28003KT 6SM BR BKN007 BKN012 BKN028 19/19 A2998= • KECG 120214Z 00000KT 7SM BKN010 20/19 A2997 RMK AO2 CIG 008V012= • KECG 120223Z 00000KT 4SM BR SCT008 19/19 A2998 RMK AO2= • KECG 120254Z AUTO 36003KT 2 1/2SM BR SCT031 SCT041 BKN060 20/19 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP151 60001 T02000194 55001 TSNO= • KECG 120305Z AUTO 01005KT 3SM BR FEW031 SCT065 21/19 A2997 RMK AO2 TSNO= • KECG 120354Z AUTO 06005KT 4SM BR SCT037 BKN050 21/20 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP147 T02060200 TSNO= • KECG 120454Z AUTO 09006KT 10SM FEW120 21/19 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP142 T02110194 402281183 TSNO= • KECG 120554Z AUTO 09004KT 10SM FEW110 21/19 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP138 60001 T02060189 10211 20194 56013 TSNO= • KECG 120654Z AUTO 10005KT 9SM -RA BKN100 BKN120 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAB19 SLP136 P0000 T02060189 TSNO= • KECG 120743Z AUTO 12006KT 10SM BKN022 BKN029 BKN100 21/18 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE16 P0001 TSNO= • KECG 120754Z AUTO 13013G18KT 10SM BKN016 BKN022 OVC029 21/18 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE16 SLP135 P0001 T02110183 TSNO= • KECG 120854Z AUTO 11006KT 10SM SCT019 BKN028 OVC032 21/19 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP131 60001 T02060189 58007 TSNO= • KECG 120905Z AUTO 11008KT 10SM FEW019 BKN030 OVC037 21/19 A2992 RMK AO2 TSNO= • KECG 120932Z AUTO 10007KT 3SM BR FEW017 BKN026 OVC033 20/18 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB08E17 P0000 TSNO= • KECG 120954Z AUTO 09007KT 10SM FEW017 BKN021 OVC028 20/18 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB08E17 SLP128 P0000 T02000183 TSNO=

  5. Elizabeth City Observations KECG 120954Z AUTO 09007KT 10SM FEW017 BKN021 OVC028 20/18 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB08E17 SLP128 P0000 T02000183 TSNO= KECG 121020Z AUTO 08006KT 10SM SCT024 OVC030 21/18 A2992 RMK AO2 TSNO= KECG 121032Z AUTO 08007KT 9SM -RA FEW018 BKN026 OVC032 21/18 A2992 RMK AO2 RAB25 P0000 TSNO= KECG 121054Z 08007KT 5SM BR SCT022 OVC026 20/18 A2992 RMK AO2 RAB25E49 SLP131 P0000 T02000183= KECG 121124Z 09008KT 2SM -RA BR FEW008 BKN018 OVC026 20/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAB07 P0001= KECG 121133Z 09007KT 2SM -RA BR BKN008 BKN017 OVC024 20/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAB07 P0001= KECG 121142Z 08006KT 1 1/2SM -RA BR BKN008 OVC017 20/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAB07 P0002= KECG 121154Z 08008KT 2SM BR OVC006 20/19 A2992 RMK AO2 RAB07E54 CIG 005V011 SLP132 P0002 60003 7//// T02000189 10211 20200 53001= KECG 121215Z 07008KT 4SM BR BKN006 OVC009 20/19 A2993 RMK AO2 CIG 004V008=

  6. Synoptic Pattern

  7. Surface Analysis

  8. Radar

  9. Verifications

  10. Standings for Elizabeth City

  11. Standings for Elizabeth City

  12. Up Close and Personal

  13. Elizabeth City – Lessons Learned • A distinct forcing mechanism is needed for concentrated precipitation. • Widespread upslope precipitation will ‘rob’ vertical motion from the coastal convergence zone. • Pay close attention to the SREF when it looks blotchy for risk of rainfall – this tells you that one of the parameterization schemes is teetering between off and on.

  14. Elizabeth City SREF

  15. Elkins, WV

  16. Elkins, WV FAA Identifier: EKN Lat/Long: 38-53-22.0000N / 079-51-25.7000W38-53.366667N / 079-51.428333W38.8894444 / -79.8571389(estimated) Elevation: 1987 ft. / 605.6 m (surveyed) Variation: 07W (1985) From city: 2 miles S of ELKINS, WV

  17. Elkins Observations • KEKN 111751Z AUTO 11004KT 10SM BKN100 21/08 A3012 RMK AO2 SLP201 T02110078 10217 20078 58016 TSNO= • KEKN 111851Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM BKN100 21/06 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP196 T02110061 TSNO= • KEKN 111951Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN085 20/08 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP195 T02000083 TSNO= • KEKN 112051Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC090 19/09 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP192 T01940089 57012 TSNO= • KEKN 112151Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC085 19/10 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP186 T01940100 TSNO= • KEKN 112251Z AUTO VRB03KT 10SM OVC080 18/10 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP186 T01830100 TSNO= • KEKN 112351Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC085 17/11 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP185 T01670106 10217 20167 56007 TSNO= • KEKN 120051Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM -RA OVC070 16/12 A3007 RMK AO2 RAB50 SLP186 P0000 T01560117 TSNO= • KEKN 120151Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC065 16/11 A3007 RMK AO2 RAE07 SLP186 P0000 T01610106 TSNO= • KEKN 120251Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC070 15/11 A3006 RMK AO2 RAB10E36 SLP181 P0000 60000 T01500106 50000 TSNO= • KEKN 120351Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM -RA OVC070 14/11 A3005 RMK AO2 RAB08 SLP178 P0001 T01390111 TSNO= • KEKN 120451Z AUTO 15006KT 10SM OVC075 15/09 A3004 RMK AO2 RAE46 SLP170 P0000 T01500089 402170050 TSNO= • KEKN 120551Z AUTO 00000KT 5SM RA BR FEW028 SCT037 OVC065 13/11 A3003 RMK AO2 RAB0453 SLP165 P0006 60007 T01280106 10167 20128 58011 • TSNO= • KEKN 120606Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM +RA BKN028 BKN036 OVC060 13/10 A3003 RMK AO2 P0005 TSNO= • KEKN 120606Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM +RA BKN028 BKN036 OVC060 13/10A3003= • KEKN 120619Z AUTO VRB03KT 4SM RA BR BKN028 BKN034 OVC060 13/11 A3002 RMK AO2 P0009 TSNO= • KEKN 120619Z AUTO VRB03KT 4SM RA BR BKN028 BKN034 OVC060 13/11A3002= • KEKN 120631Z AUTO 32005KT 6SM -RA BR SCT026 OVC070 12/11 A3002 RMK AO2 P0011 TSNO= • KEKN 120651Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM RA BR SCT026 OVC075 13/11 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP159 P0018 T01280106 TSNO= • KEKN 120659Z AUTO 00000KT 4SM RA BR SCT028 OVC075 12/11 A3000 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO= • KEKN 120651Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM RA BR SCT026 OVC075 13/11 A3001= • KEKN 120659Z AUTO 00000KT 4SM RA BR SCT028 OVC075 12/11 A3000= • KEKN 120751Z AUTO 00000KT 6SM -RA BR SCT026 BKN070 OVC100 12/11 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP146 P0006 T01220111 TSNO= • KEKN 120830Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM BKN028 OVC100 13/11 A2996 RMK AO2 RAE02 P0000 TSNO= • KEKN 120851Z AUTO 10003KT 10SM BKN026 BKN031 OVC100 14/11 A2995 RMK AO2 RAE02 SLP137 P0000 60024 T01440111 58027 TSNO= • KEKN 120910Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM -RA FEW025 BKN080 OVC100 15/12 A2995 RMK AO2 RAB08 P0000 TSNO= • KEKN 120910Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM -RA FEW025 BKN080 OVC100 15/12A2995= • KEKN 120951Z AUTO 13008KT 090V160 10SM SCT028 OVC095 15/12 A2993 RMK AO2 RAB08E35 SLP131 P0002 T01500117 TSNO=

  18. Elkins Observations KEKN 120951Z AUTO 13008KT 090V160 10SM SCT028 OVC095 15/12 A2993 RMK AO2 RAB08E35 SLP131 P0002 T01500117 TSNO= KEKN 121051Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT028 SCT080 OVC100 16/12 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB0956E09 SLP124 P0000 T01560117 TSNO= KEKN 121121Z AUTO VRB03KT 10SM -RA BKN025 BKN031 OVC100 15/12 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB04 P0000 TSNO= KEKN 121121Z AUTO VRB03KT 10SM -RA BKN025 BKN031 OVC100 15/12A2991= KEKN 121138Z AUTO 14005KT 10SM SCT025 BKN030 OVC100 16/12 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB04E37 P0001 TSNO= KEKN 121151Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM -RA SCT027 BKN075 OVC095 16/12 A2990 RMK AO2 RAB04 SLP124 P0001 60027 70034 T01560117 10161 20122 56014

  19. Synoptic Pattern

  20. Surface Analysis

  21. Warm advection

  22. Radar

  23. Verifications

  24. Standings for Elkins

  25. Up Close and Personal

  26. Elkins – Lessons Learned • A rather dry air mass (preceding a rain storm) may lead to higher than expected ceilings. • Evaporative cooling which occurred with the onset of the heavier rain also kept ceilings higher than expected as did a mean southeast (downslope) flow. • Widespread isentropic uplift leads to reasonable rainfall estimates.

  27. Elkins Reflections

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