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Meteorology 415

Meteorology 415. Contest 2 Saginaw and Sault Ste Marie September 29, 2011. Saginaw, Michigan (MBS). Saginaw, Michigan.

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Meteorology 415

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  1. Meteorology 415 Contest 2 Saginaw and Sault Ste Marie September 29, 2011

  2. Saginaw, Michigan (MBS)

  3. Saginaw, Michigan FAA Identifier: MBS Lat/Long: 43-31-58.5000N / 084-04-46.7000W43-31.975000N / 084-04.778333W43.5329167 / -84.0796389(estimated) Elevation: 668 ft. / 203.6 m (surveyed) Variation: 04W (1980) From city: 9 miles NW of SAGINAW, MI

  4. Saginaw Observations • KMBS 291753Z 22012KT 10SM SCT018 17/12 A2962 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP029 P0001 60001 T01670117 10172 20117 58021= • KMBS 291832Z 22010G18KT 10SM BKN022 17/12 A2959 RMK AO2= • KMBS 291853Z 22011KT 10SM BKN022 OVC031 17/12 A2958 RMK AO2 SLP018 T01720122= • KMBS 291917Z 21007KT 10SM SCT024 BKN033 BKN040 17/12 A2958 RMK AO2= • KMBS 291953Z 23010KT 10SM -RA FEW023 BKN030 OVC090 17/13 A2957 RMK AO2 RAB40 SLP013 P0000 T01670128= • KMBS 292012Z 21008G17KT 4SM -RA BR BKN022 BKN029 OVC038 16/13 A2956 RMK AO2 P0001= • KMBS 292012Z 21008G17KT 4SM -RA BR BKN022 BKN029 OVC038 16/13A2956= • KMBS 292053Z 17011KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR FEW013 BKN021 OVC044 15/14 A2951 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 PRESFR SLP994 P0006 60006 T01500139 58035= • KMBS 292117Z 19012G20KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR SCT009 BKN018 OVC023 15/13 A2952 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 P0004= • KMBS 292117Z 19012G20KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR SCT009 BKN018 OVC023 15/13A2952= • KMBS 292145Z 20010KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR SCT009 BKN014 OVC020 14/13 A2951 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 P0005= • KMBS 292145Z 20010KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR SCT009 BKN014 OVC020 14/13A2951= • KMBS 292153Z 20013KT 6SM -RA BR BKN009 OVC016 14/13 A2951 RMK AO2 CIG 007V011 SLP995 P0005 T01440133= • KMBS 292223Z 20010KT 8SM -RA SCT008 BKN016 OVC040 15/13 A2950 RMK AO2 P0000= • KMBS 292253Z 20009KT 10SM BKN015 OVC046 14/13 A2949 RMK AO2 RAE50 SLP986 P0001 T01440133= • KMBS 292309Z 20009G19KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN014 BKN024 OVC048 14/13 A2948 RMK AO2 VIS 1 1/2V5 RAB04 P0002= • KMBS 292309Z 20009G19KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN014 BKN024 OVC048 14/13A2948= • KMBS 292312Z 20010KT 3SM -RA BR SCT014 OVC024 14/13 A2948 RMK AO2 RAB04 P0002= • KMBS 292353Z 22010G16KT 10SM BKN014 OVC022 14/13 A2947 RMK AO2 RAB04E20 SLP981 P0002 60014 T01440133 10172 20144 58013= • KMBS 300000Z 21009G16KT 9SM SCT012 OVC021 14/13 A2947 RMK AO2= • KMBS 292353Z 22010G16KT 10SM BKN014 OVC022 14/13 A2947= • KMBS 300000Z 21009G16KT 9SM SCT012 OVC021 14/13 A2947= • KMBS 300031Z 23009KT 10SM SCT017 BKN034 OVC060 14/13 A2948 RMK AO2= • KMBS 300053Z 23013G17KT 10SM -RA SCT023 BKN055 OVC075 14/12 A2948 RMK AO2 RAB44 SLP982 P0000 T01390117= • KMBS 300153Z 22008KT 10SM BKN060 BKN085 OVC110 12/10 A2948 RMK AO2 RAE31 SLP982 P0002 T01170100= • KMBS 300253Z 23010KT 10SM BKN095 12/09 A2946 RMK AO2 SLP977 60002 T01170094 58004= • KMBS 300353Z 21007KT 10SM CLR 11/09 A2946 RMK AO2 SLP975 T01060094= • KMBS 300453Z 22007KT 10SM CLR 10/09 A2946 RMK AO2 SLP975 T01000089 401720100= • KMBS 300553Z 22007KT 10SM CLR 10/09 A2946 RMK AO2 SLP977 60002 T01000089 10144 20094 53000=

  5. Saginaw Observations • KMBS 300553Z 22007KT 10SM CLR 10/09 A2946 RMK AO2 SLP977 60002 T01000089 10144 20094 53000= • KMBS 300653Z 22004KT 10SM SCT090 09/09 A2948 RMK AO2 SLP982 T00940089= • KMBS 300753Z 25006KT 10SM FEW035 BKN055 OVC080 10/09 A2949 RMK AO2 SLP986 T01000089= • KMBS 300804Z 25005KT 10SM SCT004 BKN032 OVC060 10/09 A2949 RMK AO2= • KMBS 300812Z 25007KT 10SM BKN004 BKN035 OVC055 10/09 A2949 RMK AO2= • KMBS 300853Z 26009KT 7SM OVC002 10/09 A2951 RMK AO2 SLP991 T01000094 53014= • KMBS 300953Z 26008KT 7SM -RA SCT004 BKN012 OVC085 11/10 A2952 RMK AO2 RAB27 SLP997 P0000 T01060100= • KMBS 301036Z 34013G19KT 4SM RA BR SCT010 BKN015 OVC035 12/11 A2954 RMK AO2 WSHFT 1021 P0006= • KMBS 301049Z 33019G28KT 7SM -RA FEW008 BKN019 OVC036 12/09 A2955 RMK AO2 PK WND 33028/1045 WSHFT 1021 P0008= • KMBS 301053Z 34018G28KT 7SM -RA FEW008 BKN021 OVC034 11/09 A2955 RMK AO2 PK WND 33028/1045 WSHFT 1021 SLP008 P0008 • T01110094= • KMBS 301153Z 34016G25KT 10SM -RA SCT022 BKN027 OVC035 10/08 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 35031/1121 SLP025 P0003 60011 • 70028 T01000083 10117 20089 53027= • KMBS 301253Z 34017G25KT 10SM -RA BKN016 OVC023 09/07 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND 33031/1232 SLP042 P0001 T00890067= • KMBS 301353Z 33018G24KT 10SM -RA SCT017 BKN022 OVC039 08/06 A2970 RMK AO2 PK WND 34026/1343 SLP058 P0002 T00780061= • KMBS 301453Z 34020G28KT 8SM -RA OVC024 08/05 A2974 RMK AO2 PK WND 34028/1452 SLP075 P0004 60007 T00780050 51047= • KMBS 301553Z 33020G27KT 10SM -RA SCT019 BKN026 OVC034 07/04 A2978 RMK AO2 PK WND 33029/1539 SLP088 P0004 T00670044= • KMBS 301643Z 34022G29KT 10SM FEW018 BKN030 OVC080 07/04 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 35029/1642 RAE19 P0000= • KMBS 301653Z 34020G30KT 10SM FEW022 SCT029 OVC080 07/04 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 35030/1648 RAE19 SLP101 P0000 • T00670039= • KMBS 301743Z 35016G22KT 10SM -RA BKN026 BKN031 08/04 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 34026/1716 RAB19 P0000= • KMBS 301753Z 35016G24KT 10SM -RA BKN027 BKN037 08/04 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 34026/1716 RAB19 SLP112 P0000 60011 • T00830044 10100 20067 51037= • KMBS 301835Z 34021G25KT 10SM -RA FEW025 BKN030 OVC065 08/04 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 35026/1801 RAE1756B18 P0001= • KMBS 301843Z 34017G25KT 9SM -RA BKN028 OVC037 07/04 A2987 RMK AO2 PK WND 35026/1801 RAE1756B18 P0001=

  6. Synoptic Pattern

  7. Surface Analysis

  8. Radar

  9. Verifications

  10. Standings for Saginaw

  11. Standings for Saginaw

  12. Saginaw – Lessons Learned • Cold air masses tend to move slower than guidance due to impedance at the surface • Isentropic lifting produces more homogeneous precipitation amounts than does convection and can help to make ‘bolder’ forecasts • In a developing cyclone, patches of dry air still wrap around the incipient wave causing breaks in the clouds.

  13. Sault Ste Marie, Michigan (ANJ)

  14. Sault Ste Marie, Michigan FAA Identifier: ANJ Lat/Long: 46-28-45.2000N / 084-22-06.2000W46-28.753333N / 084-22.103333W46.4792222 / -84.3683889(estimated) Elevation: 716 ft. / 218.2 m (surveyed) Variation: 07W (1990) From city: 1 mile SW of SAULT STE MARIE, MI

  15. Sault Ste Marie Observations • KANJ 291755Z AUTO 13009KT 10SM FEW019 SCT027 18/12 A2951 RMK AO2 SLP991 T01780122 10178 20089 56018= • KANJ 291855Z AUTO 14010G15KT 10SM CLR 18/12 A2949 RMK AO2 SLP984 T01780117= • KANJ 291955Z AUTO 14008KT 10SM CLR 17/11 A2948 RMK AO2 SLP980 T01670111= • KANJ 292055Z AUTO 11007KT 10SM CLR 17/11 A2945 RMK AO2 SLP973 T01670111 57019= • KANJ 292155Z AUTO 11005KT 10SM CLR 16/11 A2944 RMK AO2 SLP969 T01610111= • KANJ 292255Z AUTO 08006KT 10SM CLR 15/12 A2945 RMK AO2 SLP970 T01500117= • KANJ 292355Z AUTO 09003KT 10SM CLR 14/11 A2945 RMK AO2 SLP972 T01440111 10183 20144 55001= • KANJ 300055Z AUTO 06004KT 10SM FEW080 14/11 A2946 RMK AO2 SLP976 T01390111= • KANJ 300155Z AUTO 02004KT 10SM FEW048 BKN085 14/11 A2947 RMK AO2 SLP978 T01390106= • KANJ 300255Z AUTO 36008KT 9SM -RA FEW014 SCT022 OVC037 14/10 A2949 RMK AO2 RAB52 SLP984 P0000 60000 T01390100 53013= • KANJ 300304Z AUTO 01010G20KT 9SM -RA BKN016 BKN025 OVC037 13/10A2949= • KANJ 300304Z AUTO 01010G20KT 9SM -RA BKN016 BKN025 OVC037 13/10 A2949 RMK AO2 P0000= • KANJ 300348Z AUTO 02013G23KT 10SM FEW018 OVC031 11/07 A2952 RMK AO2 RAE14 P0001= • KANJ 300355Z AUTO 04010G20KT 360V090 10SM SCT018 OVC033 11/07 A2952 RMK AO2 RAE14 SLP996 P0001 T01110072= • KANJ 300455Z AUTO 03009G25KT 10SM BKN060 OVC070 10/05 A2954 RMK AO2 PK WND 04029/0432 RAB09E19 SLP002 P0000 T01000050 401830089= • KANJ 300555Z AUTO 02010G15KT 6SM RA BKN021 OVC045 08/05 A2958 RMK AO2 RAB07 SLP016 P0002 60003 T00780050 10144 20078 5303

  16. Sault Ste Marie Observations • KANJ 300555Z AUTO 02010G15KT 6SM RA BKN021 OVC045 08/05 A2958 RMK AO2 RAB07 SLP016 P0002 60003 T00780050 10144 • 20078 53030= • KANJ 300655Z AUTO 02013G21KT 10SM -RA FEW018 OVC023 07/04 A2962 RMK AO2 SLP028 P0007 T00720039= • KANJ 300755Z AUTO 01008G16KT 7SM RA OVC021 07/03 A2965 RMK AO2 SLP041 P0004 T00670033= • KANJ 300855Z AUTO 36010G17KT 5SM RA SCT018 OVC024 06/03 A2968 RMK AO2 SLP051 P0010 60021 T00610033 51034= • KANJ 300933Z AUTO 01008G15KT 4SM +RA BR FEW023 BKN030 OVC043 05/03 A2970 RMK AO2 P0007= • KANJ 300933Z AUTO 01008G15KT 4SM +RA BR FEW023 BKN030 OVC043 05/03A2970= • KANJ 300955Z AUTO 36011G20KT 10SM -RA FEW019 SCT029 OVC045 05/02 A2971 RMK AO2 SLP060 P0009 T00500022= • KANJ 301014Z AUTO 35011G21KT 10SM -RA SCT023 BKN027 OVC047 05/02 A2972 RMK AO2 P0000= • KANJ 301014Z AUTO 35011G21KT 10SM -RA SCT023 BKN027 OVC047 05/02A2972= • KANJ 301052Z AUTO 36011G17KT 10SM -RA FEW014 BKN041 OVC049 04/02 A2973 RMK AO2 PK WND 35028/1038 P0000= • KANJ 301055Z AUTO 36012G17KT 10SM -RA SCT014 BKN041 OVC049 04/02 A2973 RMK AO2 PK WND 35028/1038 SLP070 P0000 • T00440017= • KANJ 301052Z AUTO 36011G17KT 10SM -RA FEW014 BKN041 OVC049 04/02A2973= • KANJ 301122Z AUTO 35012G21KT 10SM -RA SCT014 BKN020 OVC031 04/01 A2975 RMK AO2 P0001= • KANJ 301122Z AUTO 35012G21KT 10SM -RA SCT014 BKN020 OVC031 04/01A2975= • KANJ 301155Z AUTO 36011G16KT 10SM -RA FEW013 BKN025 OVC030 04/02 A2976 RMK AO2 SLP080 P0001 60031 70034 T00440017 • 10078 20039 53018= • KANJ 301255Z AUTO 35007G17KT 10SM -RA SCT017 BKN023 OVC028 05/02 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP093 P0001 T00500022= • KANJ 301314Z AUTO 35011G23KT 320V020 10SM -RA FEW016 SCT022 OVC030 05/02 A2981 RMK AO2 P0001= • KANJ 301314Z AUTO 35011G23KT 320V020 10SM -RA FEW016 SCT022 OVC03005/02 A2981= • KANJ 301325Z AUTO 34009G18KT 9SM -RA FEW014 SCT018 OVC028 05/02 A2982 RMK AO2 P0001= • KANJ 301325Z AUTO 34009G18KT 9SM -RA FEW014 SCT018 OVC028 05/02A2982= • KANJ 301355Z AUTO 36008G20KT 8SM -RA SCT020 OVC028 05/02 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP106 P0002 T00500017= • KANJ 301414Z AUTO 35011G19KT 10SM -RA FEW019 BKN034 OVC043 05/01 A2985 RMK AO2 P0000= • KANJ 301414Z AUTO 35011G19KT 10SM -RA FEW019 BKN034 OVC043 05/01A2985= • KANJ 301455Z AUTO 36009G17KT 10SM -RA FEW020 SCT026 OVC049 06/01 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP115 P0000 60003 T00560011 51035= • KANJ 301555Z AUTO 35009G17KT 10SM FEW022 SCT029 OVC070 06/01 A2988 RMK AO2 RAE22 SLP121 P0000 T00610011= • KANJ 301655Z AUTO 36010G17KT 10SM FEW025 SCT031 BKN085 07/01 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP127 T00670006= • KANJ 301755Z AUTO 02012G23KT 10SM SCT034 07/M01 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP133 60003 T00721006 10072 20044 51017=

  17. Synoptic Pattern

  18. Surface Analysis

  19. Radar

  20. Lakefront Drive in Chicago

  21. Verifications

  22. Standings for Sault Ste Marie

  23. Sault Ste Marie – Lessons Learned • Diabatic effects of the warm lakes will tend to steer the colder air away from a site surrounded on three sides by water. • The center of low pressure is an area of weaker winds and it takes awhile for the winds to pick-up. • In an increasingly windy, cold-advection environment, low clouds are common, but low visibility is not.

  24. Weekly Winners – Survey/Career

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