1 / 22

Meteorology 415

Meteorology 415. Contest 3 Springfield and St. Louis, Missouri November 2, 2011. Springfield, MO. Springfield, MO.

ezekiel-wiggins
Download Presentation

Meteorology 415

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Meteorology 415 Contest 3 Springfield and St. Louis, Missouri November 2, 2011

  2. Springfield, MO

  3. Springfield, MO FAA Identifier:  SGF Lat/Long:  37-14-44.4000N / 093-23-19.1000W37-14.740000N / 093-23.318333W37.2456667 / -93.3886389(estimated) Elevation:  1268 ft. / 386.5 m (surveyed) Variation:  03E (2000) From city:  5 miles NW of SPRINGFIELD, MO

  4. Springfield Observations • KSGF 022352Z 16013KT 10SM CLR 18/09 A2989 RMK AO2 SLP117 T01830094 10217 20183 58012= • KSGF 030052Z 15015G22KT 10SM OVC070 18/10 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP102 T01780100= • KSGF 030152Z 17016G23KT 10SM -RA BKN060 OVC100 17/11 A2981 RMK AO2 RAB42 SLP091 P0000 T01670111= • KSGF 030252Z 17015KT 10SM SCT040 BKN065 OVC100 16/12 A2981 RMK AO2 RAE49 SLP090 P0001 60001 T01560122 56025= • KSGF 030306Z 28020G32KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR FEW010 BKN036 OVC095 14/13 A2987 RMK AO2 PK WND 26032/0305 WSHFT 0250 RAB0253 PRESRR P0002= • KSGF 030309Z 30013G32KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR SCT010 BKN025 OVC065 12/12 A2988 RMK AO2 PK WND 26032/0305 WSHFT 0255 RAB0253 PRESRR P0006= • KSGF 030309Z 30013G32KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR SCT010 BKN025 OVC065 12/12A2988= • KSGF 030306Z 28020G32KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR FEW010 BKN036 OVC095 14/13A2987= • KSGF 030314Z 31015G32KT 2SM +RA BR SCT006 BKN025 OVC036 10/09 A2988 RMK AO2 PK WND 26032/0305 WSHFT 0255 RAB0253 P0016= • KSGF 030319Z 31014G23KT 4SM +RA BR BKN006 BKN013 OVC038 09/09 A2988 RMK AO2 PK WND 26032/0305 WSHFT 0255 RAB0253 P0017= • KSGF 030314Z 31015G32KT 2SM +RA BR SCT006 BKN025 OVC036 10/09A2= • KSGF 030352Z 03009KT 6SM RA BR SCT006 BKN045 OVC070 08/08 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 26032/0305 WSHFT 0255 RAB0253 SLP108 P0036 T00780078= • KSGF 030410Z 01006KT 10SM -RA BKN006 OVC049 08/08 A2987 RMK AO2 P0003= • KSGF 030452Z 31007KT 10SM OVC004 07/07 A2989 RMK AO2 RAE16 SLP120 P0003 T00720067= • KSGF 030552Z 32009KT 4SM -RA BR BKN004 BKN009 OVC025 06/06 A2984 RMK AO2 RAB0459 PRESFR SLP102 P0001 60041 T00610061 10183 20061 402170061 50009= • KSGF 030609Z 29008KT 9SM OVC006 06/06 A2986 RMK AO2 RAE0558 P0000= • KSGF 030629Z 28016G23KT 8SM OVC004 05/04 A2988 RMK AO2 RAE0558 P0000= • KSGF 030652Z 28020G26KT 5SM -RA BR BKN006 OVC010 04/04 A2989 RMK AO2 PK WND 29026/0649 RAE0558B41 SLP118 P0001 T00440039= • KSGF 030747Z 29014G30KT 7SM -RA OVC010 03/03 A2991 RMK AO2 PK WND 28031/0735 P0001= • KSGF 030752Z 30014G24KT 9SM -RA OVC010 03/02 A2991 RMK AO2 PK WND 28031/0735 SLP128 P0001 T00330022= • KSGF 030811Z 30015G23KT 10SM -RA OVC008 03/02 A2992 RMK AO2 P0001= • KSGF 030852Z 30015G21KT 7SM -RA OVC008 03/02 A2992 RMK AO2 CIG 006V012 SLP132 P0002 60004 T00280022 51012= • KSGF 030952Z 30012G20KT 4SM -RA BR OVC006 02/02 A2994 RMK AO2 PK WND 31029/0917 UPB30E31 SLP136 P0000 T00220017=

  5. Synoptic Pattern What’s that?

  6. Surface Analysis

  7. Radar Snow Rain

  8. Verifications

  9. Standings for Springfield, MO

  10. COMPARE

  11. Standings for Springfield, MO

  12. Springfield, MO – Lessons Learned • Precise timing of the front was critical to success on this forecast • When possible, use many methods to estimate FROPA • SREF • NAM Radar • MOS and DMO • Duo-digital method!

  13. St. Louis, MO

  14. St. Louis, MO FAA Identifier:  STL Lat/Long:  38-44-55.3100N / 090-22-12.1040W38-44.921833N / 090-22.201733W38.7486972 / -90.3700289(estimated) Elevation:  618 ft. / 188.4 m (surveyed) Variation:  00E (2000) From city:  10 miles NW of ST LOUIS, MO

  15. St. Louis Observations • KSTL 022351Z 16012KT 10SM SCT150 BKN200 20/07 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP143 T02000067 10244 20200 51005= • KSTL 030051Z 17014G19KT 10SM BKN200 19/08 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP139 T01890083= • KSTL 030151Z 17013KT 10SM SCT150 OVC200 18/08 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP130 T01830083= • KSTL 030251Z 17014KT 10SM SCT150 BKN200 18/06 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP122 T01780061 58020= • KSTL 030351Z 17012KT 10SM FEW130 BKN200 17/06 A2989 RMK AO2 SLP115 T01720056= • KSTL 030451Z 17011KT 10SM BKN100 BKN200 17/06 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP103 T01720056= • KSTL 030551Z 20006KT 5SM RA BKN060 OVC085 15/08 A2986 RMK AO2 RAB36 SLP106 P0003 60003 T01500083 10200 20150 402440094 55013= • KSTL 030636Z 33004KT 4SM RA BKN041 OVC060 13/10 A2985 RMK AO2 P0010= • KSTL 030646Z 29009KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR SCT028 OVC039 12/11 A2989 RMK AO2 PRESRR P0016= • KSTL 030651Z 31009KT 3SM RA BR BKN030 OVC039 12/11 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP117 P0021 T01220106= • KSTL 030740Z 11008KT 4SM RA BR BKN050 OVC060 12/11 A2984 RMK AO2 P0020= • KSTL 030751Z 12007KT 4SM RA BR OVC048 12/11 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP099 P0024 T01170106= • KSTL 030833Z 13010KT 3SM -RA BR FEW005 BKN039 OVC065 12/11 A2981 RMK AO2 P0013= • KSTL 030851Z 11011KT 4SM -RA BR FEW005 BKN039 OVC075 12/11 A2979 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP080 P0020 60065 T01170106 58035= • KSTL 030917Z 11012KT 3SM -RA BR BKN006 OVC055 11/10 A2976 RMK AO2 P0002= • KSTL 030951Z 09017G22KT 4SM -RA BR SCT006 BKN046 OVC070 11/10 A2968 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP046 P0006 T01110100= • KSTL 031003Z 12015KT 5SM -RA BR SCT008 OVC075 11/10 A2970 RMK AO2 P0001= • KSTL 030951Z 09017G22KT 4SM -RA BR SCT006 BKN046 OVC070 11/10 A2968= • KSTL 031003Z 12015KT 5SM -RA BR SCT008 OVC075 11/10 A2970=

  16. Synoptic Pattern

  17. Surface Analysis

  18. Radar

  19. Verifications

  20. Standings for St. Louis

  21. COMPARE

  22. St. Louis – Lessons Learned • Front can have complex structure, so be aware of a couple of surges of cooler air. • Favored jet streak position can enhance precipitation amounts • Trajectory of the air flow will increase moisture content….the longer the air flows from a moist source, the higher the precip rates.. • DON’T forecast for the same city twice 

More Related