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STRATEGIC ISSUES FACING ASIA

Explore the strategic issues facing Asia, including political systems, social systems, religious/cultural spectrum, economic systems, demographics, and more. Gain insights into the challenges and opportunities for stability and sustainable growth in Asia.

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STRATEGIC ISSUES FACING ASIA

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  1. STRATEGIC ISSUES FACING ASIA Asia’s Century: The Peaceful(?) Rise of China!Dr. Julian E. Gaspar, Executive DirectorCenter for International Business Studies, &Clinical Professor of International FinanceMays Business SchoolTexas A&M UniversityCollege Station, Texas

  2. APPRECIATING ASIA’S DIVERSITY A. Political Systems1. Authoritarian/Military Regimes 2. Benevolent Dictatorship 3. Communism 4. Democracy

  3. APPRECIATING ASIA’S DIVERSITY B. Social Systems • Closed Societies • Controlled Societies 3. Open Societies

  4. APPRECIATING ASIA’S DIVERSITY C. Religious/Cultural Spectrum • Buddhism • Christianity • Hinduism • Islam • Shintoism

  5. APPRECIATING ASIA’S DIVERSITY D. Economic Systems • Command Economic System • Free Enterprise System • Micro-managed Economic System • Transition Economic System & State Capitalism

  6. E. Demographics (2014) Pop. (m) GNI ($T) GNI (PPP$T) World 7261 78.3 108.4 Asia 3742 15.0 33.1 China 1364 10.1 18.0 India 1296 2.0 7.3 Indonesia 255 0.9 2.6 Japan 1275.34.8 Thailand 68 0.4 1.0 South Korea 501.41.8 Australia 23 1.5 1.0 United States 319 17.6 17.8 Source: wdi.worldbank.org/table/1.1, 2015

  7. Winning the $30 trillion decathlon: Going for Gold in Emerging markets “The original Industrial Revolution, hatched in the mid-1700s, took two centuries to gain full force. Britain, the revolution's birthplace, required 150 years to double its output per person; in the United States, locus of the revolution's second stage, doubling GDP per capita took more than 50 years. A century later, when China and India industrialized, the two nations doubled their GDP per capita in 12 and 16 years respectively. Moreover, Britain and the United States began industrialization with populations of about ten million, whereas China and India began their economic takeoffs with populations of roughly one billion. Thus the two leading emerging economies are experiencing roughly ten times the economic acceleration of the Industrial Revolution, on 100 times the scale—resulting in an economic force that is over 1,000 times as big.” • McKinsey Quarterly, “Winning the $30 trillion decathlon: Going for gold in emerging markets,” August 2012

  8. World’s Ten Largest Economies: US $ 2014

  9. Income Distribution

  10. Income Distribution 1990 - 2006

  11. Asia’s Challenge: Stability and Sustainable Growth Will the current economic weakness in the U.S., EU, and Japan accelerate China’s rise to become the world’s dominant economy or will China’s population pyramid be a roadblock? Will rising domestic debt (private and SEOs) in China, India, and Indonesia lead to faster economic reforms (privatization, governance, market liberalization, elimination of corporate cronyism, transparency and rule of law) in Asia as a whole? Will Asia focus on economic growth based on domestic consumption, strengthened social programs and middle class growth or focus more on increased savings and exports/regional trading blocs (APEC/TPP)? What is outlook for long term political stability (functioning democratic institutions, stabilizing income distribution, and reducing bureaucracy/corruption/poverty) in Asia? What are the prospects for social unrest (caused by high unemployment, gender gap, widening wealth inequality, and inadequate social safety net) and religious harmony? What are the prospects for regional peace (e.g., China, Pakistan, North Korea and their neighbors)? Will Asia (e.g., China, India, and Japan) decouple from the U.S. to create a more stable multi-polar world?

  12. Quotes on China and India • “The people of China well over a century have been, in thought and in objective, closer to us Americans than almost any other peoples in the world --the same ideals. China, in the last --less than half a century has become one of the great democracies of the world.” President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, February 19, 1943 (The China Mirage, James Bradley, 2015) • Recalling how the Soviet Union changed, the Dalai Lama thinks for a moment how China is developing. “China is communist without communist ideology --only power,” he declares. “So logically, no future!” The “only future” for China is “democracy, rule of law, free press, religious freedom, free information. China’s future depends on these factors.” Wall Street Journal, Sep. 22-23, 07. • “China is a sleeping giant. Let her lie and sleep for when she awakens she will tremble the world” Napoleon Bonaparte • “(India) A billion people and it’s a democracy. Ain’t that something?” President George Bush (during 2000 presidential campaign)

  13. Thank You! Dr. Julian GasparMays Business School

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