Minerals in Barents Western Barents region

1. Minerals in BarentsWestern Barents region Logistics demands of the mining industry Thomas Lindholm, GeoVista AB

2. Scene In 2011 – The Swedish Transport Administration Q: What are the future logistics requirements from the mining industry, Northern Sweden A: 2010 – 26 million tonnes exported 2020 – likely to be >49 million tonnesQ: On what railway? To what port?

3. Iron orepricedevelopment 2005-2015 SGU - Iron ore prices USD/tonne 1980-2014 (2016)

4. Minerals in Barents - Partnership • Purpose: Monitor the increased demands on transport systems in the Western Barents region (Norway, Sweden, Finland, … Russia) • Project period 2013 – 2016 • Project founded by: The Swedish Transport Administration, SWEDEN The Ministry of Enterprise and Innovation, SWEDEN County Administrative Board of Norrbotten, SWEDEN Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment, Lapland, FINLAND Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment, North Ostrobothnia, FINLAND The Finnish Transport Agency, FINLAND Norwegian Public Roads Administration, NORWAY Norwegian National Rail Administration, NORWAY • Reports by GeoVista in 2014 & 2015 Detailed studies in 2013 & 2015Final report presented in August 2016 Now, a brief summary

5. Minerals industry – key drivers • Controlling parameters to attract exploration • Geological potential • Political risk • Minerals legislation • Infrastructure • Access to capital • ... and of course also .... Market conditions Exploration is a key to development“You don’t find minerals where you search – you search where you find”

6. 1. Geological potential • Very high geological potential for mineral discoveries in Western Barents Region • Finland and Sweden known to have good geological databases, Norway is strongly improving its geo-databases • Example: Fennoscandian Ore Deposit Database (FODD) for metallic and industrial minerals • Systematic collection of new data • The region is often described as “underexplored relative to peers”

7. 2. Political risks • Low political risk in Western Barents Region (Norway, Sweden, Finland) • Changes in government interpretation of legislation may be seen as negative by investors, part of development process • Increased environmental awareness and application of the environmental legislation - no surprises to an investor • CSR policies are adopted by companies active in the region • ... In a competitive world those issues constantly need improvement, and they are continuously being addressed

8. 3. Minerals legislation • Minerals legislations in Sweden, Finland and Norway are considered among the best in the world • All countries have national minerals strategies • EU Minerals strategy from 2008 /European Commission, 2008/, which is based on three pillars: • Fair and sustainable supply of raw materials from global markets • Fostering sustainable supply within the EU • Boosting resource efficiency and promoting recycling

9. 4. Infrastructure • Existing infrastructure (railways, roads, ports, power lines etc.) are keys to the economic development of a deposit • Ongoing improvement of capacity – Malmbanan, other railways and harbours • On-going integration of transport systems (European perspective), with concentration to certain transport corridors and nodes • Future trends towards commuting, fly in - fly out, however,bulk ore is not for flying • Planning of infrastructure is the one parameter which we ourselves best can influence to stimulate mineral development in the region!

10. 5. Access to capital • Exploration is expensive, risks are high, reward is rare • Financing is global • Strong co-operation between juniors, medium & major companies • Raw material prices are cyclical, many cycles may occur during development of one resources project • Cycles vary between different raw materials • A long term strategy is important

11. 6. Market conditions • Fe - market has fundamentally changed • Fe - driven by a few major players, fighting over market shares • Connection between mineral demands and international instability, energy price, interest rates, deflation, etc. • Other commodities, in a more normal cycle • (Also Cr, V, Mn, P & industrial minerals create large product volumes) • Green technology - new raw materials are emerging,one example, 278 wind mills in Mid Norway require per mill:475 t steel, 36 t Cu, 2.6 t Pb, 1.3 t Al, 400 kg Ni .. and ..400 kg neodyme, 80 kg dysprosium (REE)another example:Graphene

12. A varying degree of knowledge, constant evaluation Geological potential Mineralresource Mineral reserve Number of targets Early exploration phases Conceptual and feasibility studies Final evaluation Production start Exploration Mining technology 1000 targets of interest 1 target left Modified after Boliden 2010 From scanning large areas – to affecting only a few very small areas Success criteria: Size, grade, mining cost, location

13. Basis for 2014-2015 reports FODD - subset Western Barents region Metallogeneticmap After area selection and modificationof the two data-sets: • 770 metallic mineral deposits • 274 industrial mineral deposits Due to the differences in the above databases, we have chosen two modes of procedures and scopes: • one production oriented in the shorter term • one potential oriented in a longer term

14. Transport perspective - mined ore versus product Some commodities produce larger transport volumes than others

15. Estimated production Scope 1 - production: Metallic and industrial mineral deposits Crudeore and productvolumesper annum, in productionwithin 10 years

16. Estimated potential - total Scope 2 - potential: Metallic mineral deposits (only) Product potential per deposit

17. Summary of studies Mineral potential in the Western Barents region is huge Short term, knowledge of industrial and metallic mineral resources, which in 10 years could yield: 400 Mt of crude ore / equivalent to 120 Mt of products on an annual basis Longer term, indications of metallic (only) mineral resources, which potentially can yield in total: 47,000 Mt of crude ore / equivalent to 10,000 Mt of products (industrial minerals not included) Low political risk and favourable mineral legislations in the Western Barents region A strong case within Europe, sustainable supply within EU Access to capital is global, cyclical market, will recover Infrastructure: we can stimulate the minerals industry, and other industries, by smart infrastructure development

18. Detailed studies of railway corridors Rovaniemi or Kemijärvi – Sodankylä, FinlandELY Keskus, Lapland & Lapin liitto, 2015 Both figures show known product tonnage (dark blue) and known+potential product tonnage (light blue)Different scales of bars • Known and potential mineral resources can justify selection of corridor • Resource efficiency – Existing infrastructure is one of the keys in development of mineral resources • Avoid building infrastructure on top of known deposits Pajala – Kaunisvaara, SwedenSwedish Transport Authority, 2013

19. Challenges • An attractive region will prosper from having:- Industry- Nature- Culture • Social acceptance (co-operation & co-existence, with respect) • Smart development of infrastructure is needed to develop the minerals industry

20. Finally Introductory picture, did you think of export? Don’t forget import. Luleå harbour, importing goods for further enhancement of iron ore mined in the region. / Thank you