Questions for Downs

As Downs sought to define what he meant by a democracy, what do winning and losing parties refrain from doing? What are the two indicators that are most predictive of who will and who will not vote? What is the difference between an initiative and a referendum? Questions for Downs

Anthony Downs, (1957) “An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy”

Use of rational choice to model political preferences and actions (economic theory of Democracy) Economists take government as endogenous variable ANthony Downs Moderate pluralism: center-seeking Polarized pluralism: center-fleeing

“If public operation of an enterprise will produce a greater net social utility, the services rendered by this enterprise should belong in the category of public goods.” Underprovision and overconsumption. ANthony Downs

How do you maximize social welfare if you can’t even define it clearly? Assumption that individuals carry out their social function through pursuit of income, prestige, and power. Can these be pursued in a way that is destructive to society? Anthony downs

Pg 137 “Losing parties never attempt to prevent the winners from taking office, nor do winners use the powers of office to vitiate the ability of losers to compete in the next election.” • Bush v Gore (2000), Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010), • defunding of Acorn, • change in voter laws, • elimination of unions, • increased income disparity, • reduced access to education. • End of the fairness doctrine Anthony downs

Those individuals with greater access to resources will have greater influence over the political agenda by influencing both government and the public. Government does not know what the people want, so it will require a representative form of government. This adds an additional layer of political ignorance. “Because some voters can be influenced, specialists in influencing them appear.” Lobbyists, astroturfing, and professional marketing of a political agenda. “Finally, imperfect knowledge makes the governing party susceptible to bribery.” Officials making policy that harms the general public can get away with it if the public fails to hold them accountable. 4 consequences of imperfect knowledge

Conditions under which a cost-benefit analysis would indicate that political knowledge is worth the time and effort to obtain. “Enjoy being well-informed”. Believes the election will be close enough to where they may cast the deciding ballot. (It should also be mentioned that the individual needs to believe that a difference in the outcome of the election will result in a difference of policy.) In order to influence others “May need information to influence the formation of government policy as a lobbyist.” Rational reasons for political knowledge

Knowledge as influence • Influence others with biased selection of facts (propaganda) • Some men more important as they can influence many votes • Pg. 140“On one hand, they attempt to convince the government that the policies they stand for which are of direct benefit to themselves are both good for and desired by a large portion of the electorate. On the other hand, they try to convince the electorate that these policies are in fact desirable.” Anthony downs

“Essentially, inequality of political influence is a necessary result of imperfect information, given an unequal distribution of wealth and income in society. When knowledge is imperfect, effective political action requires the use of economic resources to meet the cost of information. Therefore, those who command such resources are able to swing more than their proportional weight politically. This outcome is not the result of irrationality or dishonesty. On the contrary, lobbying in a democracy is a highly rational response to the lack of perfect information, as is government's submission to the demands of lobbyists.” The rational response to widespread political ignorance

Pg 143…”democracy does not lead to effective, stable government when the electorate is polarized.” Think of Madison and Rousseau that argued factions would lead to one group trying to oppress the other rather than working together for solutions that would improve conditions for all.

http://voteview.com/polarized_america.htm

Cost of information. Industry lobbyists have the most to gain from political information. Pg 147“Proponents of democracy think citizens should be well informed.” Pg 149 “Thus political theory has suffered because it has not taken into account certain economic realities. On the other hand, economic theory has suffered because it has not taken into account the political realities of government decision-making.” Anthony Downs

An Economic Theory of Democracy (1957) New York, NY: Harper Collins “How much government intervention in the economy should there be?” Represented as a bell curve with Hayekian laissez-faire at the far right and total control of the economy at the far left. Top tax bracket at 91% at the time and faith in government was very high. US at the top of all indicators of economic and democratic success. Whatever your criteria, it could be argued that the US was the greatest country in the world. Anthony downs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKa5CY-KOHc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5n1KzTVXuA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwAQwItEjUo Chapter 12 elections and voting

The textbook states, “The threat of elections keeps policy makers concerned with public opinion and promotes ethical behavior.” How does this change if a lucrative job as a lobbyist awaits the Congressman voted out of office? Citizen legislators

Primary Elections: vote for party candidate that will compete in the later general election. Republicans run against Republicans, and Democrats against Democrats. • Closed primary: only the party’s members can participate. • Open Primary: open to independents and members of the opposition party. • Runoff primary: No candidate receives a majority of the votes cast, so a runoff is called for the two with the most votes. • General election: The winners of the primaries face opposing party candidates to determine who will get the seat. Republicans and Democrats face off with the winner securing the office in question. Types of elections

Initiative: Citizens take the initiative to pass legislation that has not been proposed by the state legislative process. Citizens take the initiative Referendum: State legislatures “passing the buck” to the people to decide. Referring it to the people Interest groups and “the initiative industry”. Look at I-1183. How many voters actually understood what they were voting on? How many voters voted to reduce the cost of vehicle license tabs not realizing that it would just result in more regressive forms of taxation elsewhere, like sales taxes? How many voters voted against discriminatory practices in hiring without realizing that they were actually repealing affirmative action in Washington State? Initiatives are ways for groups or individuals to pass legislation that a legislature would be unwilling to pursue. When you fail to lobby the masses, lobby the uninformed public instead. Ballot measures

Following the passage of legislation that took away the right to organize from state workers, numerous public officials in Wisconsin have been put on the ballot for recall. Initially, 6 Republican state senators were put up for recall with two of them losing their seats to Democrats. Governor Scott Walker had to be in office for a full year before he was eligible for recall. The Governor won the recall election. recall

“The horse race” or “politics as electoral spectacle”. • Plurality vs proportional system • Proportional representation (PR) systems allow for more political parties (more ideas) to compete. Plurality systems tend toward duopoly. • PR systems encourage cooperation between the parties as your opposing party today may be your partners in a coalition government tomorrow. • PR systems in a parliamentary framework goes far toward eliminating gridlock as the majority and the prime minister (PM) are from the same party. Major reforms are easier to implement. Presidential elections

Winner-take-all primary: The winner can be determined in the first few states under this method, leaving the selection of candidates to the first few states. Each presidential election year there is some controversy of states moving up their primaries (front-loading) in order to have greater influence on the outcome. In 2008, there was a question as to whether Michigan and Florida would have their delegates seated at the Democratic National Convention because they had moved up their primary dates against the wishes of the DNC. Primaries and caucuses

Proportional representation primary: More fair, allowing candidates who do not do well in the early states an opportunity to get back in the race in later states. This delays the selection of a final candidate, however, and lengthens the amount of time that the candidate is having shots taken at them from their own party. Primaries and caucuses

Caucus: more oriented toward party members rather than a broader electorate. Run by the state party. • Typically involve rounds of voting. Minimum support levels are required to move on to the next round. As candidates fail to meet the minimum requirements they are dropped from consideration and supporters then move on to their second choice. Debate on the candidates’ merits are carried out by supporters as they try to convince others to support their candidates. Primaries and caucuses

“Primaries are also more similar to the general election and thus constitute a rigorous test for the candidates, a chance to display under pressure some of the skills needed to be a successful president.” Other than the ability to use the bully pulpit to your advantage, what skills of governance are displayed in a campaign? Successful campaigns typically speak in vague platitudes, whereas governance requires specific legislative agendas to deal with real world problems. Successful campaigns receive donations and support from interest groups. Those who govern successfully need to be able to remain autonomous from those same interest groups. If the skill set for campaigning and governing are divergent, wouldn’t it follow that US campaigns might select the least appropriate representatives? campaign

The number of Congressmen (reps and sens) + 3 from Washington DC = 538 electors 270 votes to win in a two-way race. Should the electoral college be eliminated? There is an issue of expediency. Without the electoral college, it would be necessary for each state to count every vote, as opposed to just counting enough to declare a winner sooner. On the other hand, in a close race, the electoral college can defeat the desire of the majority. Popular vote Bush: 50,456,002 Gore: 50,999,897 Percentage Bush: 47.9% Gore: 48.4% Electoral vote Bush: 271 Gore: 266 Florida electoral votes in 2000: 25 Electoral college

The 435 Congressional districts would each cast a ballot (in an electoral college) based on local results. 2 additional electoral college votes would be winner take all for each state. Advantage: it could be done without Constitutional Amendment, but some of the same problems would remain. States can vote to move to the current system. In September of 2011, Pennsylvania Republicans were considering moving to a congressional district plan for selecting electors. Had this been in place in 2008, Barack Obama would have had 10 fewer electoral college votes. Republicans hold both Houses and the Governorship in Pennsylvania and such a move could be overreach and cause a significant backlash within the state. Republican Secretary of State for Ohio Jon Husted has proposed that Ohio move to this system. The problem: Ohio has heavily gerrymandered districts that favor Republicans. The popular vote in Ohio went to Barack Obama, giving him all 18 electoral votes. If the district plan were in place, Romney would have received 12 electoral votes and Obama would have received 6 even though Barak Obama received 50.1% of the votes to Romney’s 48.2% (1 million more votes). While on the face this would seem like a good solution, gerrymandering by state legislatures could skew the vote. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/results#ohio Congressional district plan

We already covered the advantages of incumbency in the Chapter on Congress. Primarily, funding, staff, and name recognition. • How they lose: • Redistricting: Dennis Kucinich will lose his district and has expressed an interest in running in Seattle. • Scandals: Often Congressmen will retire rather than lose reelection, however, we are starting to see some staying in office and getting reelected. David Vitter linked to the DC madam is still in office having won reelection after scandal. Vitter is an advocate of religious right social positions including abstinence only sex education. Anthony Weiner resigned in disgrace after a sexting scandal. • Coattails: Riding on the presidential candidate’s support • Midterm elections: Loss of House seats by the president’s party is common. Senate is not subject to gerrymandering. • In campaigning, the president sells his agenda to the public. The midterm elections register displeasure. This is why Congressional members would like greater control over the candidate selection process. If the candidate comes up short, House members are likely to lose their seats. Why incumbents lose

Political participation • Conventional • Unconventional

Demographics already covered in Chapter on Political Parties. • Policy issues: • Retrospective judgment: how has the party in power actually governed? • Prospective judgment: No record to judge on, what will the candidate actually do if elected? Keep it vague and let the voters decide what you will do. The Barnum Effect. • Studies have shown that voters will typically vote for the “devil they know” if they lack sufficient information regarding how a challenger is likely to behave. Vote choice

Income and education are the strongest indicators of an individual’s likelihood of voting. Because these two factors correlate so closely, we will not distinguish which one is dominant. Consider them both to be the most important characteristic as to whether we vote or not. All other factors can be correlated in some method to income and education. Who votes?

Join the Debate – felons voting

When looking over reasons not to vote we should also consider whether some of these issues offer an opportunity to disenfranchise. Other commitments: Only being able to wait in a long line to vote on a Tuesday would preclude millions of students and workers from reasonably being able to vote. Difficulties in registration and absentee balloting: keeping these difficult or making them harder would further suppress the vote. Why not vote?

Number of elections; voter burnout but nothing changes Voter attitudes: see no difference in the parties or don’t like either candidate. Fiscal conservative but social liberal or vice versa. Why not vote?

Requires that those states, counties, and municipalities that have sought to disenfranchise (deny the right to vote) minorities in the past must get preclearance from the Dept. of Justice prior to changing voting laws. Passed in 1965 for 5 years, extended in 1970 for 5 more, then further extended in 1975 for 7, 1982 for 25, and 25 years again in 2006. Section 5 was not overruled, but the group detailed in Section 4 was overruled making Section 5 meaningless. Texas has already reinstated a law that had been prevented by the Department of Justice. Individuals can still file suit, but it will be after the election has already occurred. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/26/us/supreme-court-ruling.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 Voting rights act of 1965 section 5

Election day a holiday/work day • Expand early voting/limit early voting • Mail and online voting/harder to vote by absentee ballot • Make registration easier/harder • Automatic registration breeds apathy and complacency? Really? • Breed apathy and complacency/convince citizens of the importance of their vote.. Convince voters that there is no difference between the parties: they are all corrupt so how will voting change my life chances? • Ballot technology: concerns over electronic voting machines. The concern was not about individual fraud, but the potential of vote count manipulation by the manufacturers themselves. Google “Diebold voting machine controversy” • Party “get out the vote” or “keep out the vote”. Democrats tend to pass legislation that makes voting easier, Republicans tend to pass voting that makes voting more difficult – often specifically targeted toward certain demographic groups. ACORN and Rock the Vote vs True the vote • http://electionstudies.org/nesguide/toptable/tab2a_2.htm • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuOT1bRYdK8 Mike Turzai (R) - House Majority leader in Pennsylvania Ways to improve/suppress the vote

Questions for Downs