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Climate recap and outlook

Climate recap and outlook. Philip Mote and Nate Mantua University of Washington Climate Impacts Group Boise, ID October 16, 2008. The CSES - Climate Impacts Group. http://cses.washington.edu/cig/.

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Climate recap and outlook

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  1. Climate recap and outlook Philip Mote and Nate Mantua University of Washington Climate Impacts Group Boise, ID October 16, 2008

  2. The CSES - Climate Impacts Group http://cses.washington.edu/cig/ Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program

  3. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

  4. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

  5. Daily Temperatures 0.14ºC

  6. A big snow year

  7. Coastal ocean temperatures were cold from winter through July

  8. Oct 2007-June 2008 SST anomalies: La Niña and a cool phase of the PDO

  9. Land and Ocean temperature anomaly was +0.72°C (1901-2000 climatology), 8th warmest in 129 years

  10. Pacific Outlook from Oct 2007 • Forecasts: La Niña most likely situation for 2007-08 • PDO: Transiting to cool phase as La Niña fades Forecast summaries European Center 3/2007 2008 2007 2008

  11. Typical winter climate pattern jet stream during past La Niña winters

  12. Last year’s outlook: wet autumn and winter, equal chances on temperature Temperature Precipitation OND OND DJF DJF

  13. Oct 07-Mar 08 anomalies

  14. Blame the circulation pattern 500mb height anomalies Dec 2007-June 2008: anomalous flow from NNW L H

  15. Almost a typical La Niña Last 8 La Niñas Dec-Jun Dec 2007-June 2008

  16. This year?

  17. Observed SST anomaliesSeptember 21-27, 2008

  18. La Nada Tropical ocean temperatures have returned to near average

  19. Equatorial subsurface ocean temperature anomaly Colder than average waters in the east indicate a shallow thermocline, favoring additional cooling in the near term

  20. The latest ENSO forecasts See http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO European Center Forecast summary

  21. PDO forecast: drifting toward neutral territory -- index has been negative since last September From June-July-August 2008 initial conditions http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/forecast1/for1pdo.html

  22. Another factor in seasonal forecasts PNW December-January-February temperatures

  23. 30-day outlook: EC (from Sept 30, 2008) See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

  24. CPC Outlooks from Sept 18, 2008 precipitation temperature

  25. The Bottom Line • expectation for ENSO-neutral conditions, combined with recent trends, favors “Equal Chances” for fall-winter precipitation and a small increase in the odds for warmer than average temperatures • ENSO neutral and La Niña years tended to enhance the risk of flood events in some northern Idaho river basins in the 20th century (Hamlet and Lettenmaier 2007) • Additional influence from PDO might offset another factor… • Persistent warming trends See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

  26. Sept 30 estimated soil moisture percentiles • Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor

  27. Daily Temperatures -0.67ºC +0.03ºC -0.64ºC

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