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AVIATION PRESENTATION for May 2nd Warm Season Workshop

AVIATION PRESENTATION for May 2nd Warm Season Workshop. Items to be covered: - Warm Season Thunderstorms Stats-2009/10/11 - Use/Non-use of “CB” in TAF - Gridded TAF procedures - Service Backup Changes - Warm Season Best Practices.

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AVIATION PRESENTATION for May 2nd Warm Season Workshop

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  1. AVIATION PRESENTATION for May 2ndWarm Season Workshop • Items to be covered: - Warm Season Thunderstorms Stats-2009/10/11 - Use/Non-use of “CB” in TAF - Gridded TAF procedures - Service Backup Changes - Warm Season Best Practices

  2. Warm Season stats for April-September 2009/10/11 for Thunderstorms • PODFAR • Overall .326/.139/.224 .817/.869/.781 • BTV .283/.147/.216 .692/.650/.626 • MPV .529/.050/----- .848/.892/----- • MSS .290/.207/.221 .833/.924/.848 • RUT .343/.102/.247 .799/.882/.818 • PBG .235/.093/.230 .843/.917/.877 • SLK .410/.280/.140 .844/.829/.829

  3. Warm Season stats for April-September 2009/10/11 for Thunderstorms cont’d • PODFAR • 00z .496 /.205 /.226 .787 /.840 /.622 • 06z .034 /.000 /.141 .833 /1.000 /.855 • 12z .000 /.097 /.234 1.000 /.953 /.773 • 18z .393 /.123 /.269 .812 /.847 /.817

  4. We are over-forecasting thunderstorms way too much and verifying very little • “Better” results for the 18z/00z issuances, “worse” for the 06z/12z issuances • As a result………

  5. The FAA drives content requirements of TAF – NWS provides those requirements a. FAA wants to tighten up the limits of the celestial dome because too many people use TS/VCTS–VCSH/CBin different ways. b. TAF addresses the 0-5 mile radius around the airport. c. Airports with approaches that are affected by CB, outside this radius,need to be addressed in the AFD and/or TRACON forecast.

  6. New TAF directive / rules • Categorical Amendment Criteria is the way to amend your TAF. • CB may not be used in the TAF unlessTS orVCTS is mentionedin the present wxaccompanying the VIS. i. No current AvnFPS syntax QC ii. No ‘get well’ date when this will be included. • Proposed that TEMPO be used up through 9 hours from the beginning of the TAF period.

  7. New TAF directive / rules (cont.) • More emphasis and detail should be included in the first 12 hours of the TAF. • TAFs should remain as concise as possible to describe changes in flight conditions and not exceed 6 lines (excluding a TEMPO group) except when absolutely necessary, to describe relevant weather conditions. • When the Public Forecast has a 60% chance of TS or greater, forecasters should include thunderstorms in the TAF’s at all TAF sites. • Clarification of the Observation Requirement to initiate new TAF service. TAFs may be considered for AWOS III sensors by your region. • The Aviation Focal Points may view individual stats for their forecasters.

  8. TAF guidance TS vs. VCTS in the TAF KABC 0-5SM - CB with TS 5-10SM - CB with VCTS Beyond 10SM - NO CB/TS/VCTS in TAF

  9. UPDATED THUNDERSTORM PHILOSOPHY FOR TAF ISSUANCE BASED ON NEW “CB” DIRECTIVE

  10. Gridded TAF Procedures • Not clear what the future may hold. Direction from ERH is lacking at this point. • Nevertheless, please give Gridded TAFs a try. • There are detailed instructions on the Wiki. • Gridded TAFs can provide a nice starting point in most situations with less “typing” of the forecast. • Check results against MOS and BUFKIT soundings. • Only drawback right now is too many FM groups…will need to tweak results in AVNFPS before transmitting. • Amendments still done in AVNFPS. Aviation grids are in-house only at this point. A few offices send them to NDFD, but we don’t want conflicting forecasts as amendments are made to aviation grids used to generate scheduled TAFs.

  11. Service Backup Changes • New TAFs! • Pittsfield, MA (KPSF, WFO ALY begins 18z 5/1/2012) • Frenchville, ME (KFVE, WFO CAR begins 18z 5/4/2012) • Airport Weather Warnings for Bangor, ME (PWMAWWBGR). See Wiki for all the details.

  12. BEST PRACTICES (MAY thru MID-OCTOBER) • During the warm season, be less aggressive forecasting IFR conditions. Don’t forecast IFR except: • IFR is occurring at time of TAF issuance, • Nocturnal (radiational) fog is likely at MPV and SLK (be aggressive with this when conditions are favorable), • For TAF sites other than MPV and SLK, measurable rain within the past 24 hrs is a major factor in determining whether or not radiational fog will affect BTV (and likely also MSS, PBG, RUT). • You see the “whites of the eyes”, for instance, a line of convective storms approaching a TAF site, or other organized precipitation events that are imminent. • Some other pointers: • For thunderstorms, majority of IFR occurs due to low visibility rather than low ceilings. • If you think there is a chance of IFR, consider 3SM BR SCT001 or something that suggests to a pilot that such conditions are at least possible. This will help reduce IFR FAR during the warm season. • Be proactive with amendments (don’t forget good service). • “Fog season” at MPV and SLK runs JUNE through EARLY OCTOBER, with a peak frequency in AUGUST and SEPTEMBER. • Fog at PBG tends not to persist for very long.

  13. In Conclusion… • Remember – if you include “CB”, you must also have either “VCTS” or “TS” in the same line of the TAF. • Questions…Comments?????

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