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DEMETER D evelopment of a E uropean M ulti-model E nsemble System for

DEMETER D evelopment of a E uropean M ulti-model E nsemble System for Seasonal to In ter annual Prediction. Tim Palmer Renate Hagedorn Francisco Doblas-Reyes. Outline. Hindcast production  Summary of all models  Estimate of ERA-40 production. • Verification

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DEMETER D evelopment of a E uropean M ulti-model E nsemble System for

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  1. DEMETER Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Tim Palmer Renate Hagedorn Francisco Doblas-Reyes

  2. Outline • Hindcast production •  Summary of all models •  Estimate of ERA-40 production •Verification  Automatic diagnostics on web  First multi-model results

  3. Hindcast production Multi-model assessment End users, applications Hindcast verification Downscaling DEMETER ERA40 EU and WMO programmes

  4. ERA40 fluxes 09/86 11/86 Ocean model integration (strong relaxation to observed SSTs) DEMETER: Hindcast production •9 member ensembles, 6 month hindcasts, 4 hindcasts per year ERA-40 initial conditions SST and wind perturbations •Main focus: 1987-1998 (1969-1986) No SST Pert No WP + SST Pert - SST Pert + SST Pert + WP - SST Pert - WP

  5. DEMETER: Hindcast production ERA-40: 10 years and 7 months ECMWF: 10*4 + 2 = 42 hindcasts LODYC: 10*4 + 1 = 41 hindcasts UKMO: 9*4 + 2 = 38 hindcasts CNRM: 8*4 + 2 = 34 hindcasts MPI: 6*4 + 1 = 25 hc 09/86 04/97 11/86 11/92 02/96 02/95 02/97

  6. Estimate of ERA-40 Production Stream 2 Stream 3 Stream 1

  7. Bias • Indices • Deterministic Scores • Probabilistic Scores • Single vs. multi-model results Verification System www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter/verification

  8. Bias

  9. Value

  10. Anomaly Correlation Coefficient

  11. Multi-model DEMETER hindcasts ACC for Niño3 SST for Multimodel, ECMWF, MetFr, MetOf, andLODYC

  12. Multi-model DEMETER hindcasts Tropical RPSS (JJA) for Multimodel, ECMWF, MetFr, MetOf, and LODYC SST Precipitation

  13. Multi-model DEMETER hindcasts Value (Tropics, JJA) for Multimodel, ECMWF, MetFr, MetOf, and LODYC SST Precipitation Anom> Anom> Anom>0 Anom>0

  14. Summary • 5 DEMETER models are archiving into MARS • Hindcasts from 1987 – 1996 are available •  Full DEMETER data set (1969-1998) not available • before end of 2003 • free (!) online (!) data retrieval very likely to be • installed and working at the end of 2002 • Wide range of diagnostic plots freely accessible on the • DEMETER web site: www.ecmwf.int/research/verification • First results demonstrate value of multi-model approach

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