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D evelopment of a E uropean M ulti-Model E nsemble System for

D evelopment of a E uropean M ulti-Model E nsemble System for Seasonal to In ter annual Prediction. . DEMETER. Noel Keenlyside, Institute f ür Meereskunde, University of Kiel Tim Palmer , Renate Hagedorn , and Francisco Doblas-Reyes

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D evelopment of a E uropean M ulti-Model E nsemble System for

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  1. Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction  DEMETER Noel Keenlyside, Institute für Meereskunde, University of Kiel Tim Palmer, Renate Hagedorn,and Francisco Doblas-Reyes European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

  2. Predictability

  3. Possible approaches to representation of model error Perturbed parameters  Stochastic physics  Nonlinear dynamical systems for subgrid-motions (e.g. 2D cloud-resolving models, cellular automata)  Singular vectors  Multi-model ensembles

  4. •DEMETER system: 7 coupled global circulation models Multi-model ensemble system 9 member ensembles ERA-40 initial conditions SST and wind perturbations 4 start dates per year 6 months hindcasts •Hindcast production for: 1987-1999 (1958-2001)

  5. SST, Tropics, 1988 MSLP, Tropics, 1988 Conceptual background (deterministic view) SST, Tropics, 1987 verification

  6. ACC: SST Tropics

  7. Conceptual background (probabilistic view) SST, Tropics, 1987 MSLP, Tropics, 1988

  8. 0.049 0.902 0.147 0.058 0.904 0.151 0.099 0.923 0.176 -0.007 0.886 0.107 -0.055 0.838 0.107 0.068 0.903 0.164 0.222 0.994 0.227 0.075 0.921 0.153 Reliability: 2m-Temp.>0

  9. Reliability: 2m-Temp.>0 0.222 0.994 0.227 0.170 0.959 0.211 multi-model single-model (54 members)

  10. -0.099 0.859 0.041 -0.126 0.850 0.024 -0.016 0.925 0.059 -0.149 0.816 0.035 0.061 0.983 0.078 -0.099 0.861 0.040 -0.094 0.882 0.024 -0.075 0.891 0.034 Reliability: 2m-Temp.>0

  11. Impact of ensemble size

  12. Impact of number of models (members) Multi-model realizations Single-model realizations

  13. SOI-Index: 1 month lead (DJF)

  14. NAO-Index: 1 month lead (DJF)

  15. Tropical Cyclone Frequency Linear correlation of the tropical cyclone frequency 1st May 1st August 1st November By F. Vitart (F.Vitart@ecmwf.int)

  16. Verification • Bias • Indices • Deterministic Scores • Probabilistic Scores • Single vs. multi-model • 54-single vs. multi-model • Ocean diagnostics http://www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter/verification

  17. Verification Start date Parameter Lead time Model

  18. http://data.ecmwf.int/data Retrieve NetCDF

  19. End-user modelling • DEMETER ensemble hindcasts input for  health application (malaria model)  agriculture application (crop model) • Basic idea:  explore utility of DEMETER hindcasts  give range of uncertainty • Main problems:  sparse data to validate malaria in Africa  need of downscaled data

  20. Malaria predictions (0º,35ºE) ERA-40 Multi-Model:TercilesEns-mean

  21. ERA / DEMETER data Meteo data Crop growth monitoring system Crop Growth Indicator Statistical model Yield Meteo data Jan Feb Aug

  22. Wheat yield predictionsusing downscaled DEMETER multi-model data Germany France Greece Denmark

  23. Validation of seasonal forecast presented at European Research FP6-conference, Brussels 2002 Risk of wet / dry winter 2002/03 Risk of cold / warm winter 2002/03

  24. Summary • DEMETER multi-model hindcasts data set: •  22-44 years available for 7 models (1958 – 2001) •  Extensive diagnostics and data publicly available • Multi-model improves over single-model ensembles: •  main improvement due to reliability •  skill also improves because of increase in resolution • Applications: •  end-to-end systems for seasonal prediction -> actual value •  feasibility of skilful predictions: malaria incidence, crop yield • The future: •  EU-funded ENSEMBLES project (starts April 2004)

  25. Potential Economic Value Anom > 0.43 Anom > 0

  26. The DEMETER methodology is also being used to study the changing risk of flood as a result of man's impact on climate Control Greenhouse Palmer & Räisänen, Nature (2002) enhanced risk of flooding

  27. Towards the new FP-6 Project ENSEMBLES • Integrated prediction system for time scales from seasons to decades and beyond • Assessment of reliability of model system used for scenario runs • Incorporation of the whole earth system • Greater diversity of applications aid relief agriculture health energy tourism

  28. Tropical Cyclone Frequency Tropical storm number for the tropical Atlantic (JJASO) Verification Multi-model By F. Vitart (F.Vitart@ecmwf.int)

  29. DEMETER MM-Results: NAO-Index (DJF) 7 models: 1987-1999 (13y) 3 models: 1959 - 2001 (43y)

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