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DeSurvey Module 1.1 Climate Data (Vasto, April 4-7, 2006)

DeSurvey Module 1.1 Climate Data (Vasto, April 4-7, 2006). Tom Holt Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, UK. Objectives for Year 1 (pt 1). extract regional subsets of data from global 6-hourly ERA-40 data on n80 grid to any region 1 x 1 deg lat/long grid

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DeSurvey Module 1.1 Climate Data (Vasto, April 4-7, 2006)

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  1. DeSurvey Module 1.1Climate Data(Vasto, April 4-7, 2006) Tom Holt Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, UK

  2. Objectives for Year 1 (pt 1) • extract regional subsets of data from global 6-hourly ERA-40 data on n80 grid to any region 1 x 1 deg lat/long grid • downscale from ERA-40 data on 1x1 deg grid to a 1 km grid • Thin plate spline interpolation with topography as added spatial covariate • produce 1 km data for n degrees about any central node over the Mediterranean

  3. Objectives for Year 1 (pt 2) • Validate downscaled data against station observations at different altitudes • Stations from Greece and Portugal • Calibrate downscaling against station data if needed • Document the methodology • Extend method to more coarse resolutions, e.g. 20 km grid • These can be complete gridded data sets

  4. Objectives for Year 1 (pt 3) • repeat the downscaling using Regional Climate Model data from the PRUDENCE archive • Gives data for 1961-1990 and 2070-2099 • document climate analysis methods • These objectives are essentially D1.1.1.1 due month 12. • Setup ftp site for data and software

  5. Status (part 1) • We are about 6 weeks late with D1.1.1.1 because the ERA-40 data were literally being processed by BADC as we wanted them (there were errors!) • All ERA-40 data are now available • Downscaling method is complete • Validation is almost complete • software written to process model data

  6. Status (part 2) • documentation on methodology is about 80% complete • Once validation is complete, downscaling can be completed in a matter of days • Evora has completed work on climate background to drought in Portugal • Paper submitted IJC

  7. Status (part 3) • NOA Athens is in the process of validating downscaling • Poster accepted for EGU • UEA has developed a PCA-based set of global predictors based on ERA-40 mslp • Uses EM algorithm method to overcome problems with speed and instability • To be used for any ambient climate studies

  8. Status (part 4) • Conversion of downscaling software to R is underway • For DeSurvey Surveillance System • Software for analysis of climate extremes is written • Easily converted from Matlab to R • Summary: ahead on some things, behind on others!

  9. Does downscaling work? (pt 1)

  10. Top row: Scatter plots of the observed vs. estimated temperature data. Bottom row: Daily differences of the two datasets over the 1958-2000 period.

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