Climate recap and outlook

1. Climate recap and outlook • Nate Mantua, PhD • University of Washington • Climate Impacts Group

2. The Climate Impacts Group http://cses.washington.edu/cig/ • Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change • Supported by NOAA Climate Program

3. Current drought

5. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

6. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

7. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

9. Daily Temperatures +.51ºC +1.16ºC

11. Last year’s outlook

12. tropical ocean temperatures:a weak El Niño is underway

13. Multi-model forecast summary

14. DJF temp 2004-05

15. JFM temp

16. FMA temp

17. Nov precip

18. DJF precip 2004-05

19. JFM precip

20. NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 16, 2004 FMA precip

21. Global Ocean Surface Temperatures: July 24-Oct 22 2005

22. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 leading patterns of N. Pac. SST since 1950 The PDO has been less prominent since the early 1990s-presentFrom Bond et al. 2003, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 30: 2183-2186.http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/~spillane/npac/NPAC-WinterSST.html PDO “Victoria Pattern”

23. 50s-mid70s late 70s/late 80s 1999/2003 Phase plot for the 2 leading patterns of North Pacific wintertime SSTs (5 yr avgs) • The PDO pattern was strong from 1950s through the 1980s • The Victoria pattern was strong + from the 1999 through 2003 • In the winter of 2004-2005 North Pacific SSTs similar to the average from 1992-1995 From Bond et al. 2003, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 30: 2183-2186. Victoria pattern index x 2005 PDO index

24. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ Tropical climate and ENSO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/l

25. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/

26. Oct 12 NOAA CPC ENSO forecasts http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ensoforecast.html

27. IRI ENSO Forecast Summary • Forecasts from October 2005 call for Nino34 ranging from -0.2 to +0.6, with an average of ~+0.2 http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html#figure

28. Pacific Ocean Outlook Summary • Current forecasts rate ENSO-neutral as most likely situation for fall-winter 2005/06 • PDO: A simple forecast with skill relies on “PDO persistence + ENSO influence” (see Newman et al. (2003), J. Climate) • Expect very weak warm phase PDO conditions for fall/winter • PDO = +0.2 to +0.6 st devs for Nino34 = -0.2 to +0.6 • A Note on Last year…

29. DJF temp 2005-06

30. JFM temp 2006

31. FMA temp 2006

32. NOAA CPC Precipitation Forecasts

33. The Bottom line from CPC • “[BECAUSE ENSO IS WEAK] ALL FORECASTS REFLECT INTERDECADAL TREND MORE THAN ANY OTHER FACTOR” • above-average winter temperature is likely See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html