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Listening to LAC. PREM Week April 20, 2011. The Problems With Survey Data. Time Frequency Delay Cost. Motivation for L2L. Crisis (financial, weather, any) Lack of timely data for policymakers/WB Ignorance about impacts No effective way to target social and other policies
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Listening to LAC PREM Week April 20, 2011
The Problems With Survey Data • Time • Frequency • Delay • Cost
Motivation for L2L • Crisis (financial, weather, any) • Lack of timely data for policymakers/WB • Ignorance about impacts No effective way to target social and other policies • Possible solution: gather real-time data L2L • Rapid and frequent data collection to allow more effective policymaking/targeting
Objective of L2L • Gather continuous information from a panel of households on: • Shocks • Help identify shocks • Impacts of on-going shocks on households • Early warning system • Make data publically available on web • Policymaking • Encouraging evidence-based policymaking • Guide rapid decisions
Different Cellular Technologies • SMS (text) • USSD • GPRS (episurveyor) • IVR (Interactive Voice Response) • CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) • Not self-reported, but maybe useful as backup and quality cross-check?
Criteria to judge technologies • Reliability (What is the failure rate?) • Coverage (How much of the country is covered?) • Accuracy (Do people answer questions in the way they intend?/is technology too complicated?) • Ease/Joy of use • Cost • Data Management (user-friendly, cost)
Pre-tests in Nicaragua and Peru: Major Qualitative Findings • Young people had much easier time than old • Women harder (specially indigenous in Peru) • Rural/urban divide country-specific • Problems with people who were barely literate • Language issues • Nearly all said they would participate for $5 in minutes – $2.50 had some refusals • WB phones were too small/complicated for some people; regular phones were fine
L2L Basic Approach • Pilot in Peru and Honduras – mobile phone monthly survey* • Panel of 1500 households** – nationally representative • Payment for answers +/– $4 (average per month, per household), various different schemes • 8 questions per round/month • Questions pertaining to vulnerability/coping: • Hunger • Illness • Employment • Violence • Access to social services • Weather shocks • Adjust, then scale up to LAC
Initial Face to Face Interview • Objectives • Rank households in terms of welfare • Identify characteristics of the households for targeting of questions/programs • Document the heterogeneity of the potential response bias by observable characteristics of the respondents • Triangulate results from the cell phone survey
Initial F2F questionnaire • Major constraint: Time !! • Approach: Proxy means • Take questions from past and on-going surveys (Peru) and determine: • What variables better predict consumption? • What are the most predictive variables? • How predictive is the model? • Group of variables tested: • Demographics, Education, Health, Labor, Assets, Durable goods, Housing, Geography, Community level
Progress to Date 11/09-12/10 1/10-3/10 3/10-8/10 8/10-1/11 1/11
On-going Timeline 2/11-5/11 6/11-11/11 7/11-2/12 3/12
Role of Advisory Board Provide guidance and support with: • Technical advice and approval of reports • Lobbying for financing and partnerships • Approval of rules and advice on ethical matters • Assisting with PR and communications strategy
Other Issues • Partnerships with Telecommunications Companies • Ethical Issues: • Data disclosure (anonymity) • Privacy • Payment for answers • Action
Scaling up • Funding: sustainability or exit strategy • Areas for cost reductions (in particular, airtime) • Partnerships (telecoms & others) • Sequence of deployment (countries): political issues, opportunities • Identification of risks and mitigation strategies • Project promotion: PR, communications strategy
Current/Next Steps • Questionnaire design and testing • Purchase of equipment and airtime • Continue looking for partners (telecoms & others) • Continue exploring funding sources • Learn from others