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Listening to LAC

Listening to LAC. PREM Week April 20, 2011. The Problems With Survey Data. Time Frequency Delay Cost. Motivation for L2L. Crisis (financial, weather, any) Lack of timely data for policymakers/WB Ignorance about impacts No effective way to target social and other policies

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Listening to LAC

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  1. Listening to LAC PREM Week April 20, 2011

  2. The Problems With Survey Data • Time • Frequency • Delay • Cost

  3. Motivation for L2L • Crisis (financial, weather, any) • Lack of timely data for policymakers/WB • Ignorance about impacts No effective way to target social and other policies • Possible solution: gather real-time data  L2L • Rapid and frequent data collection to allow more effective policymaking/targeting

  4. Objective of L2L • Gather continuous information from a panel of households on: • Shocks • Help identify shocks • Impacts of on-going shocks on households • Early warning system • Make data publically available on web • Policymaking • Encouraging evidence-based policymaking • Guide rapid decisions

  5. Different Survey Modalities

  6. Different Cellular Technologies • SMS (text) • USSD • GPRS (episurveyor) • IVR (Interactive Voice Response) • CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) • Not self-reported, but maybe useful as backup and quality cross-check?

  7. Criteria to judge technologies • Reliability (What is the failure rate?) • Coverage (How much of the country is covered?) • Accuracy (Do people answer questions in the way they intend?/is technology too complicated?) • Ease/Joy of use • Cost • Data Management (user-friendly, cost)

  8. Pre-tests in Nicaragua and Peru: Major Qualitative Findings • Young people had much easier time than old • Women harder (specially indigenous in Peru) • Rural/urban divide country-specific • Problems with people who were barely literate • Language issues • Nearly all said they would participate for $5 in minutes – $2.50 had some refusals • WB phones were too small/complicated for some people; regular phones were fine

  9. L2L Basic Approach • Pilot in Peru and Honduras – mobile phone monthly survey* • Panel of 1500 households** – nationally representative • Payment for answers +/– $4 (average per month, per household), various different schemes • 8 questions per round/month • Questions pertaining to vulnerability/coping: • Hunger • Illness • Employment • Violence • Access to social services • Weather shocks • Adjust, then scale up to LAC

  10. Initial Face to Face Interview • Objectives • Rank households in terms of welfare • Identify characteristics of the households for targeting of questions/programs • Document the heterogeneity of the potential response bias by observable characteristics of the respondents • Triangulate results from the cell phone survey

  11. Initial F2F questionnaire • Major constraint: Time !! • Approach: Proxy means • Take questions from past and on-going surveys (Peru) and determine: • What variables better predict consumption? • What are the most predictive variables? • How predictive is the model? • Group of variables tested: • Demographics, Education, Health, Labor, Assets, Durable goods, Housing, Geography, Community level

  12. Progress to Date 11/09-12/10 1/10-3/10 3/10-8/10 8/10-1/11 1/11

  13. On-going Timeline 2/11-5/11 6/11-11/11 7/11-2/12 3/12

  14. Role of Advisory Board Provide guidance and support with: • Technical advice and approval of reports • Lobbying for financing and partnerships • Approval of rules and advice on ethical matters • Assisting with PR and communications strategy

  15. Other Issues • Partnerships with Telecommunications Companies • Ethical Issues: • Data disclosure (anonymity) • Privacy • Payment for answers • Action

  16. Scaling up • Funding: sustainability or exit strategy • Areas for cost reductions (in particular, airtime) • Partnerships (telecoms & others) • Sequence of deployment (countries): political issues, opportunities • Identification of risks and mitigation strategies • Project promotion: PR, communications strategy

  17. Current/Next Steps • Questionnaire design and testing • Purchase of equipment and airtime • Continue looking for partners (telecoms & others) • Continue exploring funding sources • Learn from others

  18. Thank you

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