Heidi Pacini TEPPC Technical Advisory Subcommittee Staff Liaison

1. Heidi PaciniTEPPC Technical Advisory Subcommittee Staff Liaison Data Provided by TEPPC for the TEPPC Scenario Base Case (2022 LSP1-TEP) SRWG Webinar February 10, 2011

2. Glossary IRP – Integrated Resource Plan LRS –WECC Loads and Resources Subcommittee NREL – National Renewable Energy Laboratory OTC – Once through cooling RPS – Renewable Portfolio Standard RTEP – Regional Transmission Expansion Planning Project (activities funded by the DOE grant) SCG – Subregional Coordination Group (group of SPGs) SPG – Subregional Planning Group SPSG – Scenario Planning Steering Group (WECC multi-constituency steering group) SPSC – State and Provincial Steering Committee (State steering group) TAS – Technical Advisory Subcommittee of TEPPC TEPPC – Transmission Expansion Planning and Policy Committee TSS – WECC Technical Studies Subcommittee VGS – WECC Variable Generation Subcommittee WREZ – Western Renewable Energy Zone

3. Outline • TEPPC Overview • 2022 Common Case • Summary of input assumptions • Need for reliability analyses • Data provided to SRWG for use in building the TEPPC scenario base case

4. TEPPCTransmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee • Purpose and Responsibilities • Overseeing WECC economic transmission planning database • Providing policy direction and management of the regional planning processes • Guiding the analyses and modeling for Western Interconnection economic transmission expansion planning • Provides governance over the Regional Transmission Expansion Planning (RTEP) project

5. TEPPCTransmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee • Annual Study Program • Study request window opens every year, and recently closed for the 2012 study program • 2012 TEPPC study requests • Any interested stakeholder is welcome to submit a study request to TEPPC for consideration • TEPPC’s analyses focus on studies with Interconnection-wide implications • Congestion, cost and emissions • Studies are run using a production cost model (PROMOD IV)

6. TEPPC 2011 Study Program Link to complete TEPPC 2011 Study Program

7. TEPPC Subcommittee and Workgroup Structure TEPPC Staff Liaison – Brad Nickell Technical Advisory Subcommittee (TAS) Staff Liaison – Heidi Pacini Data Work Group (DWG) Modeling Work Group (MWG) Studies Work Group (SWG) Historical Analysis Work Group (HWG) Staff Liaison – Stan Holland Staff Liaison – Stan Holland Staff Liaison – Heidi Pacini Staff Liaison – Keegan Moyer DSM Task Force (DSMTF) Staff Liaison – Keegan Moyer Note - Acronyms serve as links to group websites Hydro Modeling Task Force (HMTF) Staff Liaison – Heidi Pacini

8. Dataset Building Activities LRS Submittals Utility IRPs Resource Planners DSM Task Force LRS Submittals SCG Common Case Transmission Assumptions WREZ Tool Work Group Participants Loads DWG WECC Powerflow Case NREL Meso-scale Data Resource Portfolio SWG Transmission Network SWG Data Improvements DWG Modeling Enhancements MWG WECC Staff TEPPC Dataset Debugging/Validation DWG/MWG/SWG/Staff WECC Staff Scenario Runs/Analysis/Reporting

9. 2022 TEPPC Common Case – Summary of Assumptions

10. 2022 TEPPC Common Case – Load Assumptions

11. TEPPC Load Bubbles

12. 2022 Load Assumptions • 2005 historical hourly load shapes • 2021 Balancing Authority (BA) load forecasts reported to WECC, extrapolated to 2022 • Adjusted for expected impact of current energy efficiency policies and programs not accounted for in the BA load forecasts • Adjustments provided by the SPSC DSM WG • WECC-wide forecasts reduced by an additional 3.2% (energy) and 5.0% (peak demand), relative to initial BA forecasts • WECC-wide CAGR (2010-2021) = 1.4% (energy), 1.3% (peak) • WECC-wide 2022 demand = 999,119 GWh (energy), 174,109 MW(peak)

13. 2022 TEPPC Common Case – Resource Assumptions

14. 2022 Resource Assumptions • Resource Retirements • Once Through Cooling retirements • Plant retirements and replacements selected by the DWG with input from California stakeholders • Total retirements = 12,418 MW, Total replacements = 4,388 MW (64% CC, 36% CT) • Other plant retirements reported via • BAs to WECC • Utility IRPs as collected by LBNL • Survey of sub-regional planning groups

15. 2022 Resource Assumptions, continued • Renewable Resources • As needed to meet state RPS requirements (roughly 145,000 GWh in 2022) • As reported for states/provinces with no formal RPS (Idaho, Wyoming, British Columbia, Alberta) • Information sources: • Existing, under-construction, and planned resources reported by the BAs to WECC • Utility IRPs as collected by LBNL • CA CPUC modified cost-constrained case as provided by the CAISO (CAISO base case for 2011-2012 transmission planning process) • Wind and solar generation profiles created by NREL

16. 2022 Resource Assumptions, continued • Distributed Generation • Existing DG programs and policies identified for each state by LBNL/SPSC DSM WG • DG modeling assumptions: • DG modeled as Solar PV, unless information regarding resource type is specified • All identified program goals will be achieved • All incremental DG will be modeled explicitly • Where retail DG is assumed, RPS requirements are re-calculated based on adjusted retail sales estimate

17. 2022 Resource Assumptions, continued • Demand Response (DR) Resources • BA-reported non-firm load forecasts: ~6300 MW of DR • SPSC DSM Work Group benchmarked reported DR levels against current DR levels, DR plans, utility IRPs • An additional ~1700 MW of expected DR was identified for inclusion in the Common Case • DR modeling: • Iterative LMP-based approach for non-interruptible DR -> applied as a fixed shape resource • High-cost CT approach for interruptible DR -> dispatches based on price signals

18. 2022 Resource Assumptions, continued • Conventional and Small Hydro • Modeling methods: • Historical hourly fixed shapes (2005 historical data) • Proportional load following (PLF) – output proportional to load via a proportionality constant • Hydro-thermal cooptimization (HTC) – starts with PLF, then a specified portion of hydro capacity can be redispatched based on price

19. 2022 Resource Assumptions, continued • Conventional Resources • Existing, under-construction, and planned resources as reported by the BAs to WECC • Future resources: • Reported by the BAs and identified in utility IRPs • As needed to meet planning reserve margins

20. 2022 TEPPC Common Case – Transmission Assumptions

21. 2022 Transmission Assumptions SCG Common Case Transmission Assumptions (CCTA) Assumptions Development Existing Major Transmission • WECC 2020 HS1 powerflow base case from TSS • 2011 Path Rating Catalog • SCG CCTA • Led by SPG’s • Information provided via WECC Project Information Portal • Selection based on project status indicators: • Regional significance • Under-construction • Financial indicators • Implementation indicators

22. Need for Reliability Analysis of TEPPC Cases • Reliability is currently considered only in: • The use of reliability-based path ratings • The ability of cases to meet load requirements • A high level reliability analysis of the TEPPC 2020 Expected Future was attempted in 2011 • This effort was plagued with complications, and as such, a methodology for institutionalizing such analyses with future TEPPC cases was not established

23. Data Provided by TEPPC to SRWG • TEPPC has identified the following input assumptions that uniquely define the TEPPC 2022 Common Case: • 2022 Common Case loads • Renewables needed to meet RPS requirements • Plant retirements, particularly due to OTC issues • Transmission assumptions • Interchange results from the production cost model • TEPPC requests that these assumptions be incorporated into the case developed by the SRWG • The associated hourly inputs have been provided in the spreadsheet titled “Data for TEPPC Scenario Base Case”

24. Selected Hour for TEPPC Case • Greatest amount of WECC-wide renewables as a percentage of WECC-wide load • March 31, 2022 (Thursday) at 2pm This is also the hour of the annual max

25. Load Data Provided by TEPPC to SRWG • TEPPC areas have been mapped to the NERC registered balancing area entities • Please use the specified area “native” loads • “Native Loads” tab • Agricultural pumping loads are modeled separately in the TEPPC cases • If these are also modeled separately in the power flow cases, please include them in 2022 LSP1-TEP • If they are not typically included, please increase the area native loads by the amount of pumping load specified on the “Pumping Loads” tab

26. Renewable Data Provided by TEPPC to SRWG • Pgen for TEPPC's renewable generation is provided by resource name and resource type • Please ensure these resources are included in 2022 LSP1-TEP • Bus mappings (based on the 2020 HS1A base case) are provided for all renewables • Please use the bus assignments provided, unless you have better knowledge about proper locations for these resources • Note – TEPPC often places resources at high voltage buses assuming that if a resource is actually built, adequate transmission will be added to properly interconnect the resource • You can move resources to the lower voltage system, and add transmission for proper interconnection/reinforcement as you see fit

27. Note about TEPPC’s Generic and “Gap” Renewables • CA CPUC/CAISO renewables are named “RpsCA-xxxx” • Bus assignments for these resources were provided by the CAISO • Some LRS-reported resources have very generic names (ex. Klickitat Cty_LRS_2) • LRS data may have specified a bus location for these resources, but if not, resource were placed at a high voltage bus based on the stated location for the resource • Where LRS, IRP, CAISO data did not specify sufficient renewables to meet RPS targets, TEPPC added “gap” resources with locations based on WREZ zones (ex. name “RpsWAwnd1”) • Some of these resources are quite large, and have been lumped together at high voltage buses within a WREZ zone area • Please feel free to disaggregate generic/gap resources placed at a single high voltage bus as you see fit

28. Plant Retirement Data Provided by TEPPC to SRWG • TEPPC plant retirements between 2010 and 2021 are provided • Retirements due to OTC issues are specially noted • Replacements for OTC retirements are provided • Please reflect the OTC retirements and replacement units as specified • Please reflect the other retirements as specified • Limited replacements/repowerings are provided for other listed retirements • If you are aware of specific replacements for these retirements that have not been noted in the spreadsheet, you are welcome to still include them

29. Conventional Resource Data Provided by TEPPC to SRWG • The “TEPPC 2022 Generation” tab contains the entire TEPPC generation listing, including Pgen • Provided for information only • This information may help you achieve the target interchange flows • Generation other than the renewables are being left to the discretion of the data submitters • Note that DC ties are included in the listing, but you may set DC-tie schedules in accordance with typical operation during the hour being considered • Pumped storage projects are also listed, but proper plant operation at the hour being studied is left to your discretion • Plants (non-renewable) with “0” Pgen are either out for maintenance or out due to a forced outage

30. Transmission Data Provided by TEPPC to SRWG • TEPPC 2022 Common Case transmission assumptions are provided • Please include only these major projects • A listing of other known projects that should not be included in this case is also provided • Other regionally significant projects not noted in the spreadsheet should not be included • “Regionally significant” should be considered to be those projects that are 500 kV and above; or a backbone facility • “Backbone” transmissions are those facilities that provide network connectivity that are 345kV or above for most of the Western Interconnection, but in certain western regions that voltage may only be 230kV (usually in Colorado or east side of WI) • Local transmission can be added per local utility criteria

31. Interchange Data Provided by TEPPC to SRWG • Loading conditions on major paths connecting areas observed in the PROMOD run of the 2022 Common Case have been provided • The conditions do not need to be matched precisely • Rather, the goal is to more closely replicate the conditions observed in the PROMOD run of the TEPPC 2022 Common Case

32. Questions? Heidi Pacini Staff Engineer Western Electricity Coordinating Council hpacini@wecc.biz (801) 819-7610