Space, Counterinsurgency and the Revolution in Military Affairs

1. Space, Counterinsurgency and the Revolution in Military Affairs Space Supremacy Goes Global Loring Wirbel Citizens for Peace in Space Colorado Springs

2. Privilege, empire, precision bombing, and shopping. Our consumerist mindset leads to overwhelming popular support for Space Command planetary management – “Somebody’s gotta be emperor, and freedom to shop trumps freedom of speech, or small indigenous groups’ rights, for that matter.”

3. The Powers Behind the Scene • BMDO and Service-Specific MD Projects • Space Command (U.S. and services) • Northern Command (homeland defense) • National Reconnaissance Office • National Security Agency • Tactical Intelligence Distribution - TENCAP (Tactical Exploitation of National Capabilities) and TIARA (Tactical Intelligence And Related Activities)

4. The Banality of Evil • The most dangerous programs are the most mundane – Talon, FOLs/FOBs (Plan Colombia), etc. are scarier than space warfare games at Joint National Test Center. • Activists either remain blissfully unaware of key programs, or wake up 20 years late in a state of shock • “America leads the world in shock” • --Gil-Scott Heron

5. History 101 – National Security Agency • 1952 – Formed from Armed Forces Security Agency – budget grows to ~$3.5B in 2001 • 1950s – Global creation of floor stations • 1960s – Global deployment of Radio Research Teams • 1980s – Shift to space-based resources • 1990s – Regional SIGINT Operation Centers become centralized bases • 2000s – Forward Operating Locations , Forward Operating Bases decentralize SIGINT again

6. History 101 – Natl. Reconnaissance Office • 1960 – Formed as intell. agency, focus on imagery • 1970s – First digital imagery, first SIGINT satellites • 1980s – Collaboration with NSA, joint bases • 1990s – Shift to tactical, commercial targets • 2000s – Future Imagery Architecture 8x for images, Integrated Overhead SIGINT Architecture for communication intelligence • Current budget ~$6 billion • NRO Director Peter Teets oversees $68 billion Pentagon space budget

7. History 101 – TENCAP/TIARA • Tactical intelligence becomes largest portion of intelligence budget after end of Cold War • Jointly managed by DIA, CIA, NSA, NRO, service agencies • Currently at least $10 billion, likely will rise to $15 billion in 2002

8. History 101 – Space Command • Formed in 1983, focus on shuttle until Challenger disaster • 1990s – Formation of Space Warfare Center, test of Talon missions for tactical use • 1996 – Vision for 2020, Long Range Plan • Northern Command created May 2002 – carve out space support for “homeland defense” – using space intelligence for domestic duties • 2000s – Space Command participates in FOLs, FOBs for Colombia, Uzbekistan, Pakistan?, Diego Garcia? Where does this end?

9. FOL/FOB Methodology • Establish air base for reconnaissance flights, unmanned aerial reconnaissance vehicles • Set up portable direction-finding and listening antennas • Deploy 21st Space Wing, etc. of Space Command • Use private companies when possible • Send info in real-time to Schriever AFB – Global Broadcast System, NSA Binocular network, etc.

10. Example: Plan Colombia • FOLs at Manta, Ecuador; Comalapa, El Salvador; Aruba; Curacao • Use of CIA contractors for reconnaissance flights • Selected, secret deployments of Special Operations Forces in border areas

11. Lessons from Afghanistan • FOBs at Tashkent, Tuzel in Uzbekistan • Pakistan: Peshawar NSA station expanded, FOBs Northwest Frontier Agencies? • Diego Garcia serves as intelligence base, relay site for Global Broadcast System/UFO sats; Bahrain serves as UAV airfield and intelligence site; also NSA bases in Xinjiang, China at Qitai and Korla

12. The Next FOL/FOB Testbeds • Philippines – UAV launch site at RAAF Edinburgh, Australia; intelligence posts in Singapore, Perth, NW Cape, Waihopai • Somalia/Sudan – UAVs from Bahrain; intelligence at Prince Sultan AB in Saudi Arabia, French station at Djibouti • Yemen – more likely to be ally than target – SOF forces invited, Navy berthing rights, possible use of old Soviet SIGINT base on Socotra Island

13. But Does It Work? • Classic Counterexample: Sept. 11, New Pearl Harbor? • Intelligence was there, but unanalyzed • Finding enough human analysts to run through daily NSA/NRO take is virtually impossible • “Total Situational Awareness” unlikely except in permanent state of war

14. But We Are Now in a Permanent State of War! • HR2500 ends most communication civil liberties, INS detention challenges, secure Internet access, etc. • “Total Situational Awareness” might be closer to reality if intelligence budgets skyrocket – as they will • There is no “0:10,000 Kill Ratio” for real counterinsurgency – which is why Bush preps us for “many casualties”