Managing for Results Programme Cycle Management

1. Managing for Results Programme Cycle Management Trine Eriksen and Inger K. Stoll Financial Mechanism Office November 2012

2. RESULTS BASED MANAGEMENT What is Results Based Management (RBM) RBM is a management strategy by which all actors, contributing directly or indirectly to achieving a set of results, ensure that their processes, products and services contribute to the achievement of desired results (outputs, outcomes and impact) In the context of the Grants: A result is the output, outcome or impact of a development intervention A risk is an event that may occur and impede the objective What is a result and a risk?

3. KEY CONCEPTS Results achievement Beneficiary oriented Managing for results and reduced risks

4. RESULTS BASED MANAGEMENT IN PRACTICE 1. Clearly identifying program beneficiaries and designing programs to meet their needs. 2. Defining realistic expected results, based on appropriate analysis. 3. Identifying and managing risks. 4. Monitoring progress towards results with the use of appropriate indicators. 5. Increasing knowledge by learning lessons and integrating them into decisions, and 6. Reporting on results achieved and the resources involved.

5. Part I Quality at entry - Basis for good management

6. The Programming Cycle and Continuous Feedback Planning Programming Reporting Budgeting Evaluation Monitoring Implementation PROGRAMMING CYCLE

7. The Programme and the Context National/ sector area National/ sector area Impact -------------------------------- Outcome -------------------------------- Programme area Programme area Inputs Outputs Activities Present situation Future situation Targets Baseline

8. RESULTS CHAIN Impact Widespread improvement in society /sector Long term Outcomes Intermediate effects on target groups and systemsMedium term Outputs Products and services delivered Short term Activities Tasks transforming inputs to outputs Ongoing Inputs Financial, human & material resources Ongoing

9. Identify main programmeelements of EEA/N Grants

10. WHAT IS AN OUTCOME? • Outcomes can occur on multiple levels: • Individual level; • Family or household; • Community or populationgroup; • Organization; • System (involving multiple institutions or agencies); or • State.

11. DIFFERENT TYPES OF OUTCOMES • The nature of the changes can vary as well. Outcomes can involve different types of changes: • Changes in perceptions, attitudes, feelings, beliefs, or values; • Knowledge; • Skills or level of functioning; • Behaviours or practices; • Conditions; • Status (such as socio-economic status, and status can reflect formal or informal status); or • Policies.

12. Defining outcomes and outputs • Express an outcome and an output as a positive condition. • A measurable, desiredresult: Wait list for a cancer operation has beenreduced from 16 moths to 10 months at hospital x in y province • Avoid «double»objectives as theseblurwhatwill be measured. in order to through

13. Cross-Cutting issues asoutputs and targets • Goodgovernance • Genderequality • Sustainabledevelopment: Environmental, Economic and Social Cross-cuttingissuesareeitherreflected in the outputs or theindicators (targets), or assumptions. If theprogrammesubstantiallyaddresses cross-cuttingissues, it is advisable to define outputs and targets thatreflectthe cross-cuttingissues. This strengthensfollow-up.

14. Programme logic which will contribute to the two overall objectives Overall objectives Contribute to which will contribute to the fulfilment of the objective Contribute to Objective if the outputs are produced, then the expected outcome is likely to be achieved Expected outcomes Likely to happen if the activities take place, then the outputs will be produced Outputs Should be able to guarantee that this will happen if the inputs are available, then the activities will take place Activities Inputs

15. The intervention logic is an aim-means chain and a cause-effect chain. It is assumed that “certain events” need to occur at one level in order to achieve the desired effect at the next level. It is not certain that these events happen; they represent uncertainties. ASSUMPTIONS

16. There are Assumptions between each level: Identify Assess Monitor Manage and Mitigate

17. Identify important assumptions • Assumptionsareworded as positive conditions (see objectives) • Assumptionsarelinked to the different levelsoftheProgramme Matrix. Eachlevel must containthenecessary and sufficientconditions for thenextlevelabove. • Start from bottom of matrix and work upwards • Are weightedaccording to importance and probability Example: Scholarshiprecipientsreturn to assigned jobs

18. Check the significance of the assumptions 1. Eliminate the obvious factors which are: • Not important for the outcome • Very likely to occur 2. Assess the probability of occurrence for the remaining factors: a) Quite likely but not certain: b) Not likely to occur (killing factor!) • Include the factor into the PM and make sure to: • Monitor it • Report changes • If possible influence it Redesign the programme c) If this is not possible: Reject the programme proposal

19. RISKS • If important assumptions do no occur, they might represent a risk. • A risk is any event that could occur and adversely impact the achievement of results at all levels • Risks are an expression of uncertainty • Assumptions are expressed as a positive condition (a necessary event), whilst risks are expressed as negative conditions (un-wanted events)

20. Identify main programmeelements

21. Cross-Cutting issues asassumptions • Goodgovernance • Genderequality • Sustainabledevelopment: Environmental, Economic and Social Cross-cuttingissuesareeitherreflected in the outputs or theindicators (targets), or assumptions. If not taken care oftheycanrepresent a risk to thesustainabilityoftheprogrammeresults. Therefore cross-cuttingissuesshould be monitored in the same way as assumptions and risks.

22. The basic elements of theProgramme Matrix

23. The Matrix is the point of reference throughout the life of the programme National/ sector area National/ sector area Programme implementation Programme area Programme area Programme Present situation Future situation Baseline

24. PART II Risk Management

25. PART III Programmes and projects

26. Programmes and projects Pre-defined projects Strategic approach Programme proposal Projects Pre-defined projects

27. Programme design PROGRAMME OUTCOME Programme PROGRAMME OUTPUTS Projects

28. Example – Renewable Energy Objective (pre-defined) Expected outcome(s) (pre-defined) Outputs • Awareness raising campaigns at local level • Train the trainers • Training courses for officials at regional level • Training courses for officials at regional level • Modernised RES infrastructure • R&D on RES • Feasibility of RES mapped out in relation to local conditions • Training in RES planning competence • Plans/policy development • Windmills • Solar systems • Hydropower • Bioenergy Types of projects

29. EXAMPLE Gender-basedviolence Objective (pre-defined) Expected outcome(s) (pre-defined) Outputs • Support to existing centers • Support to start new centers • Support to provide services for women at risk such as counseling, phone-lines • Training • New coordination center • Support for coordination activities • Training • Methodologies and guidelines development • Studies • Media campaign • Education activities • Curriculum development • Training of police and medical personnel at local and regional levels • Support to develop new standards and methodologies • Training • Manual developed • Training for counselors • Support to start new counseling centers Types of projects

30. Call for proposals Be clear about which outcomes and outputs you want the projects to contribute to. Which projects are necessary and sufficient? Project template in DoRIS: http://www.eeagrants.org/id/3192

31. Logical relationship

32. PART IV Basis for results measurement

33. BASIS FOR RESULTS MEASUREMENT Result based management

34. "The starting point for a results-oriented approach is ex ante setting of clear and measurable targets and outcome indicators. Indicators must be clearly interpretable, statistically validated, truly responsive and directly linked to policy intervention, and promptly collected and publicised." From the conclusions of the 5th Cohesion Report, adopted by the European Commission in November 2010 QUALITY AT ENTRY!

35. INDICATOR • A means to measure achievement, or to help assess a development

36. HOW SHOULD INDICATORS BE FORMULATED? • Once indicators have been identified, they should be formulated to reflect measurable change. Indicators frequently utilize the following metrics to depict measurable amounts: • Number; • Ratio; • Percentage; or • Rate; • Time Indicatorsshallwhenever relevant, be broken down per gender In DoRIS, alwaysspecify unit ofmeasurement! LESS IS MORE

37. EXAMPLES OF INDICATORS Example 1: Outcome: Improved health status of young children in region/district X Indicator: Percentage of children under 6 years who are immunized against x y z diseases in district A Example 2: Outcome: Increased participation of worker’s organisations in policy development Indicator: Number of cases in which the submitted comments of worker’s organisations on draft legislation are reflected in final legislation

38. INDICATORS To describe how results will be measured, indicators must be specific, observable and come from reliable data. • Does the indicator provide the most direct evidence of the condition or result to be measured? • Is the indicator important, understood, and accepted by important stakeholders? • Is the indicator defined in the same way over time?

39. Are data for the indicator collected in the same way over time? • Will data be available for the indicator? • Will data be collected frequently enough? • Are data currently being collected? • If data are not currently collected, can cost effective instruments for data collection be developed quickly?

40. Indicators related to Bilateral Relations • All programmes should contribute to strengthened Bilateral Relations • Use the Bilateral guideline. Four types of bilateral results expected: • Extent of cooperation • Shared results • Wider effects • Knowledge and mutual understanding

41. Indicators related to «Horizontal issues» • A human-rightsbasedapproach and concerns for horizontalissues like fighting discriminiation, racism, hate speech etc. should guide definingtheoutputs and theindicators. Example: X% ofmembersof Parliament areminorities. Example: Incidencesof hate speech has decreased in Y school

42. Programme matrix - indicators

43. Sources of Verification • When defining the indicators, consider the data sources. Where can you easily get data that are reliable and timely? • Specify your sources of information • Assess where you can get easy access to data Example Ministry of Health’s statistics on cancer (health status of population) and various statistics on cancer detection and treatment services

44. Programme matrix – Sources of Verification

45. WHAT ARE BASELINES? • Baselines provide context for the setting of targets and capture the situation before a development intervention begins, or at the beginning of a time period that will be monitored and assessed. • Baselines describe the conditions prior to programming efforts. The present situation! • Essential to make credible and meaningful assessments on progress towards outcomes.

46. Programme matrix – Baseline data

47. WHAT ARE TARGETS? • Targets set the level for the magnitude of change expected by the end of a predetermined time period. They reflect what organizations commit themselves to achieve by the end of some duration of time. • Targets provide tangible and meaningful points of discussion with beneficiaries, stakeholders, and partners, and allow us to add further specificity to the outcomes from the results logic.

48. TARGETS • When you have defined the indicators and know the baseline situation, you set the targets. • What do you want the situation for the beneficiaries to be in 3 or 5 years? • Examples: • 1. 60% of W 40+ called in for cancer test in Southern Region by year 2016. We want to increase the % of W 40+ called in from 30% in 2010 to 60% in 2016. • 2. Time lag between detection of cancer to operation is not more than 3 months in 2016.

49. BASELINES AND TARGETSSUMMARY • A baseline is the value of the indicator before the implementation of the project starts • Targets orients stakeholders to the tasks to be accomplished • Targets help establish clear expectations • Targets serve as the guideposts for monitoring whether progress is being made • Targets promote transparency

50. Programme matrix - Targets 43