Office of Military Affairs (OMA)

1. Office of Military Affairs (OMA) Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework(TCAPF)

2. Agenda • TCAPF Overview • TCAPF Methodology • Collection • Analysis • Design • Monitoring & Evaluation • TCAPF Timelines and Benefits • Real-World Example: Lashkar Gah

3. Why TCAPF? Typical Metrics Increased number of Afghan security forces Increased number of insurgents killed Long-termDevelopment USAID’s competency DoD’s competency Combat Ops TCAPF • Typical Metrics • 80% of Afghan children attend school • 3,000 km of all-weather roads • 85% access to basic health care INSTABILITY • Outcomes (Between 2007-2008) • 39% increase in civilians killed in ISAF military operations • 33% increase in IEDs • 119% increase in attacks on ASF • 36% decrease in support for the Afghan Government (since 2006) • Decreased NGO presence in South and East 3

4. Obstacles to Effective Stabilization: Lack of a standardized assessment process that allows civilians and military to develop a common view of the causes of instability Civilian programs and military operations are not linked and synched Failure to make the local population the focal point “Understanding Afghan popular perceptions at the province, district, and local level is critical and usually ignored in official reporting….success in the area must be based on Afghan terms and values and the focal point for all activity must be the impact on Afghan perceptions and attitudes.” -- CSIS Af-Pak report (2008) Failure to integrate tactical information into strategic planning Programming based on LOOs created at higher HQ, not local conditions Failure to target the root causes of instability Reporting focused on outputs, not impacts How can we diminish these obstacles? TCAPF Overview

5. TCAPF Overview • TCAPF is a tool that helps to: • See the environment through culturally sensitive and consistent data collection • Understandhow to change the environment by identifying and targeting the causes of instability • Act by implementing programs that diminish the causes of instability • Measurethe effectiveness of the programming

6. TCAPF Overview Implementation: UK 52nd BDE, Helmand, Afghanistan – 2007 USMC RCT8, currently in Anbar, Iraq USMC MEB-A in RC-South, Afghanistan 4th BDE, 25th ID – currently in RC-East, Afghanistan Elements of 4th BDE, 82nd Abn Div – in RC-East & RC-South 5th BDE, 2d ID – currently in RC-South, Afghanistan UK 11th BDE – currently in Helmand, Afghanistan – 2009 COIN Academy, Kabul – 2009 USAID Mission, Field Officers, and Implementing Partners, Afghanistan

7. TCAPF Overview • History and Growth: • USAID Conflict Assessment Framework • Created by USAID’s Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation (2004) • Strategic, versus tactical focus • TCAPF – developed in 2006 • Adapts CAF to tactical level • Links conflict assessments to planning • Road tested in Horn of Africa (2006) • Included in Army doctrine – FM 3-07, Stability Operations, October 2008 • Financial support: • $3.3M USMC contract for USAID to train units deploying to Afghanistan • $177,000 USMC contract for paper-based training • $500,000 JFCOM contract for online training • $6M from USAID/OCR for simulation training

8. TCAPF Methodology 8

9. TCAPF Methodology Evaluation Implementation Measure Impact Collection Implement Activity Assess Select Data Sources “Measure” “See” Collect / Log Local Perceptions POPULATION Determine Output Indicators Identify & Prioritize Objectives “Understand” “Act” Design Identify Activities Determine Impact Indicators Select Data Sources Analysis

10. Collecting Local Perceptions …with the TCAPF Questionnaire Used at the tactical level to identify local perceptions about the causes of instability Establishes a baseline for local perceptions Generates data that can be used to measure the impact of activities and changes in local perceptions over time Four simple questions: “Has the number of people in the village changed in the last year?” “What are the most important problems facing the village?” “Who do you believe can solve your problems?” “What should be done first to help the village?” Always followed with “Why?” 10

11. TCAPF Questionnaire “Village” can be replaced by “neighborhood,” “valley,” or other relevant area. Remember to always ask “WHY?” Questionnaire also in Pashtu, Dari, and Arabic

12. TCAPF Database

13. TCAPF Methodology – Analysis

14. TCAPF Methodology - Analysis To increase stability in your AO, you must understand what is causing instability. This understanding is based upon: Operational environment (political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and information) Cultural environment (tribe, clan, religion, language, etc.) Instability Dynamics (grievances, resiliencies, key actors, events) Local perceptions Until you understand your operating environment, your programming will not be effective. In some cultures, honor, justice, and revenge matter more than schools, roads, and jobs! How do we acquire the population’sview of the local causes of instability? 14

15. Design If yes, does it also comply with the Design Principles: Ensure sustainability by the local government or institutions? Facilitate local ownership? Consider the trade-offs between short-term vs. long-term impacts? Fit the local political and cultural context? Strengthen governmental accountability and transparency? Leverage/support OGA, IGO, NGO, and HN programs? Draw upon readily accessible local resources? Provide flexibility? Key: Are you fostering STABILITY? • Stabilization Fundamentals – does each activity: • Increase support for the government? • Decrease support for individuals or groups causing instability? • Increase institutional and societal capability and capacity?

16. TCAPF Methodology – Tactical Stability Matrix 16

17. Have your program activities been achieved? (Measure of Performance) Have your program objectives been achieved? (Measure of Effect) Is stability increasing or decreasing? (Big Picture) Suggested Indicators: Increasing road movement at night TCAPF shows increasing government legitimacy TCAPF shows decreasing security concerns TCAPF shows population returning to their homes Decreasing SIGACTS Decreasing Afghan civilian casualties (all sources) Decreasing number of govt and tribal leaders killed, kidnapped, intimidated (e.g. “night letters”) Process – Evaluation

18. Weekly District Stability Snapshot 18

19. Monthly District Stability Report

20. TCAPF Requirements • Requires training (2-3 days) • Requires time and resources to gather data before programming • Requires flexibility in insecure environments • Requires a shift in focus from national to local level • Requires us to differentiate environments – stabilization vs. long-term development • Designing, implementing, measuring & evaluating programs

21. TCAPF Timelines 1 Month - Identification of Local Causes of Instability - Develop counter-instability activities - Initiate Activities 3 Months - Trend Analysis (Are the local causes of instability being mitigated?) 6 Months - Local Instability Analysis. Is the area more stable? - Change activities as required 9 Months - Continued Azimuth Checks. (then quarterly) - Provide left/right correction. 21

22. Helps surmount “stove pipes” by providing a common view of the sources of instability Provides a prioritization mechanism for activities in insecure areas Provides a framework to determine when traditional long-term development activities can be initiated Fosters more effective programming because the population identifies sources of instability, priorities, and potential activities Provides data for Monitoring and Evaluation of activities – both their performance (Output) and stabilization impact (Effect) Steady flow of data facilitates trend analysis and consistency throughout personnel rotations Empowers FPOs and tactical military units, the focal point for successful Stability Ops Provides StratComm themes that resonates with the local population Key: Programming is based on knowledge—not assumptions and the population is the “center of gravity.” TCAPF Benefits

23. TCAPF IN LASHKAR GAH 23

24. Population Change

25. “Why?”

26. Sources of Instability

27. Sources of Instability

28. “Who Do You Believe Can Solve Your Problems?” 28 28

29. “What Should be Done Firstto Help the Village?” 29

30. Correlations • Projects: • Pump Rehabilitation Project • External Factors: • 2. KJ Dam Turbine #3 Fails • Heavy Rainfall • Dep. Gov. Assassinated • Food convoys delayed 1 4 2 3 5

31. QUESTIONS?

32. Points of Contact TCAPF Training Tom Gannon (202) 712-0332 tgannon@usaid.gov Tamra Thompson (202) 712-4045 tthompson@usaid.gov TCAPF Methodology Dr. Jim Derleth (202) 712-5105 jderleth@usaid.gov Dr. Tobie Whitman (202) 712-1802 twhitman@usaid.gov Eric Kotouc (202) 712-5434 ekotouc@usaid.gov Mick Crnkovich (202) 712-5422 mcrnkovich@usaid.gov