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Strategies for Reaching Our Sustainable Energy Goal

Strategies for Reaching Our Sustainable Energy Goal. Remarks of Ron Binz Principal, Public Policy Consulting November 9, 2012 • Denver. Public Policy Consulting. www.rbinz.com. Five Reasons To Be Bullish Long-term on Renewable Energy. Compliance with climate goals

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Strategies for Reaching Our Sustainable Energy Goal

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  1. Strategies for Reaching Our Sustainable Energy Goal Remarks of Ron Binz Principal, Public Policy Consulting November 9, 2012 • Denver

  2. Public Policy Consulting www.rbinz.com

  3. Five Reasons To Be Bullish Long-term on Renewable Energy Compliance with climate goals Lower costs for wind and solar Acceptance of renewables by utilities and consumers Smart grid interplay Changing utility business models

  4. Renewable Electricity • Futures Study (REF) • Exploration of High-Penetration • Renewable Electricity Futures • Available at NREL.gov

  5. NREL’s REF Findings Renewable electricity generation is more than adequate to supply 80% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2050 while meeting electricity demand on an hourly basis in every region of the country. Increased electric system flexibility can come from a portfolio of supply- and demand-side options, like flexible conventional generation, grid storage, new transmission, more responsive loads, and changes in power system operations. The are multiple paths using renewables that result in deep reductions in electric sector greenhouse gas emissions and water use. The direct incremental cost with high renewable generation is comparable to costs of other clean energy scenarios.

  6. Helpful fact: • The US summer peak electrical use is around 800 GW.

  7. Baseline Case

  8. REF ITI Case

  9. Notes • Unadjusted 2010 cost estimates were used for consistency • Costs for wind and photovoltaics have fallen sharply in last two years (faster than these 2010 estimates) • Cost of nuclear power has risen post-Fukushima (more than these 2010 estimates) CO2 costs With incentives No incentives

  10. NREL’s estimate of continued cost reductions for wind energy

  11. DOE’s Sunshot Program

  12. New Jersey Germany Colorado Florida Arizona

  13. Solar Electric Density • Use: 100 MW(ac)/mile2 • Colorado Peak Integrated Demand: 11GW • Result: 110 mile2 required land area

  14. 110 mi2

  15. But what if 11 GW of solar were spread around the state in 100 MW installations? It might look like this...

  16. Question: How do we explain the variations in outcomes • between NJ and GA • between the US and Germany Answer: Policy; regulation; industry structure; incentives.

  17. A Recent Hart Associates Poll

  18. Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES)

  19. The Evolving Utility Business Model • Multiple threats to business as usual • Utilities must adapt in order to grow (survive) • We need to change the regulatory incentives to reward utilities for pursuing societal goals • Regulation needs to produce greater firm efficiency • Expect a new regulatory compact to emerge

  20. Congratulations to the Alliance for 8+ years of leadership. Thanks for the invitation. I look forward to your questions.

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