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Current Demographic Changes in Texas Relevant to Health Workforce Demand

Current Demographic Changes in Texas Relevant to Health Workforce Demand. State Health Plan Population Working Group Presented by Karl Eschbach , Ph.D. Current population trends with implications for health care demand. Rapid growth rate Geographic shifts Shifts in ethnic composition

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Current Demographic Changes in Texas Relevant to Health Workforce Demand

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  1. Current Demographic Changes in Texas Relevant to Health Workforce Demand State Health PlanPopulation Working Group Presented by Karl Eschbach, Ph.D.

  2. Current population trends with implications for health care demand Rapid growth rate Geographic shifts Shifts in ethnic composition Aging of the population Increases in morbidity

  3. Fastest Growing States, 2000-2009 Source: 2000 Census and 2009 Vintage Census Bureau Estimates

  4. Sources of population growth 2008 to 2009 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 Vintage Estimates + Births: +410,000 -Deaths: -164,000 +Migration from other countries: +88,000 +Migration from other states: +143,000 Total: ~477,000

  5. Natural Increase in Texas(Births minus Deaths) Source: NCHS Vital Statistics Data, 2005 http://wonder.cdc.gov/ • Birth Rate: 16.8 per 1,000 vs. 14.0 for US (2ndhighest) • Death Rate: 6.8 per 1,000 vs. 8.3 for US (5thlowest) • Natural Increase: 10.0 per 1,000 vs. 5.7 for US (3rd high) • Texas is young: • Median Age: 33.2 vs. 36.8 for US (2ndlowest) • Texas has a high total fertility rate (Children per woman) • 2.34 vs. 2.05 for US (4th highest)

  6. Natural Increase per 1,000 by state Source: NCHS Vital Statistics Data, 2005 http://wonder.cdc.gov/

  7. Total Fertility Rate by Ethnicity, Texas, 2000 Sources: Calculated from Census 2000 5% Public-Use Microdata File and National Center for Health Statistics Natality Detail File, 2000,

  8. Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2008 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2008 Estimates 8

  9. Projected Population of Texas to 2040 (Millions) 4 Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections

  10. Population Change by Area, 2000-2008 Big 5 Cities: Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, Fort Worth Big 5 Counties: Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Tarrant, Travis Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Counts, 2008 Vintage Estimates

  11. Growth of Texas Race/Ethnic Groups 2000-2008 10 Sources: 2000 Census, Census 2008 Vintage Estimates

  12. Projected Population (Millions) by Race/Ethnicity 2000-2010 Source: Texas State Data Center Projections Long-term: ½ of 1990 to 2000; Short-term: Estimated 2000 to 2007

  13. When do Hispanics pass Anglos in Texas?When do Hispanics become a majority in Texas? Source: Texas State Data Center Projections

  14. Population Growth by Age,2000 to 2008 8 Sources: 2000 Census, Census 2008 Vintage Estimates

  15. Table 2. Projected Annual Growth Rate:Total and Ages 65 and older in Texas, 2000-2040

  16. Observed and projected growth by age, 2000 to 2008, and 2008 to 2016 Sources: U.S. Census 2000, 2008 Vintage Estimates, State Data Center Projections

  17. Projected percent 65-years-old or older, 2000-2040 by area

  18. Obese or Overweight 1995-2007 Source: Centers for Disease Control, BRFSS

  19. Age and Obesity in Texas 1995, 2000, 2007 Source: Centers for Disease Control, BRFSS

  20. Race/Ethnicity and Obesity in Texas, 1995 and 2007 Source: Centers for Disease Control, BRFSS

  21. Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040 Source: Texas State Data Center Projections

  22. Insurance coverage and no insurance by type for ethnic groups, 2008

  23. Percent of Texans Reporting a Self-CareLimitation or Any Limitation, by Age, 2007 Source: State Data Center tabulation of U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey, 2007

  24. Percent Age of Texans Age 65 or Older ReportingAn Activity Limitation, 2007, by Ethnicity Source: State Data Center tabulation of U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey, 2007

  25. Projected Growth of the 65+ Population Reporting a Self-Care Limitation, 2000 to 2040, Assuming Constant Age/Sex/Race/Ethnic Rates of Disability Source: Office of the State Demographer, 2000-2004 Projection Scenario

  26. Contact Information Karl Eschbach, Ph.D. Professor and Director of Population Research Department of Internal Medicine-Geriatrics 0460 University of Texas Medical Branch 301 University Blvd Galveston, TX 77555-0460 (409) 747-3516 Phone (409) 772-8931 Fax kaeschba@utmb.edu

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