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We are well into the next great wave of change---

We are well into the next great wave of change---. “ We are in the midst of redefining our basic ideas about what enterprise & organization & even being human are about -- how value is created -- how careers are pursued ”-2006. A prediction :

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We are well into the next great wave of change---

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  1. We are well into the next great wave of change--- “We are in the midst of redefining our basic ideas about what enterprise & organization & even being human areabout -- how value is created -- how careers are pursued”-2006 A prediction: “At least 80% of white-collar jobs, as we know them today, will either disappear or be reconfigured beyond recognition--in just the next 15 ~10 years. White-collar employment as we've known it is dead. Job security as we've known it is over. Over and gone” http://www.tompeters.com/reimagine/index.php

  2. Likely jobs w/in next 10 years • Director of Emerging Thought • Chief Imagination Officer • Hacker Relations Manager • Human Interface Manager • Valuer of Intangible Assets Have Existed since 2003 Lax Natarajan & Sully Romero Ordonez

  3. Why bother with the future "If you think that you can run an organization in the next 10 years… … as you've run it in the past 10 years… you're out of your mind." CEO, Coca Cola

  4. “When the rate of change outside your company exceeds the rate of change inside your company, disaster is imminent” Lou Pritchet Senior VP, Procter & Gamble

  5. What we were predicting 10 years ago….

  6. What is being Predicted Now: What the World Will Look Like in 2025

  7. Looking to the future:common mistakes… • Making predictions rather than attaching probabilities to possibilities • Simply extrapolating current trends- (& in isolation of other trends/factors) • Thinking of only one future

  8. Looking to the future: common mistakes…

  9. The least accurate = hedgehogs:“thinkers who ‘know one big thing,’ aggressively extend the explanatory reach of that one big thing into new domains” and “display bristly impatience with those who ‘do not get it,’ ” Better experts = foxes: thinkers who know many small things, Beginning in the 1980s examined 27,451 forecasts by 284 academics, pundits and other prognosticators The study was complex, but the conclusion can be summarized simply: the experts bombed. Not only were they worse than statistical models, they could barely eke out a tie with the proverbial dart-throwing chimps. FUTURE BABBLE Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better By Dan Gardner 305 pp. Dutton. $26.95.

  10. Consider the "Historical Record of Inane Inaccuracies"

  11. “When faced with a totally new situation we tend to attach ourselves to the objects of the most recent past. Marshall McLuhan We look at the present through a rear view mirror”

  12. “It has been moved and seconded that we stick our heads in the sand.”

  13. The Newsonomics of Oblivion (March-2011) Piecemeal change is a dead-end, given the converging downward spirals of the business. Only massive, digital-first strategies and re-organizations that scrap old structures, budgets, job descriptions — and, massively, costs The Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard

  14. iPad daily: Rupert Murdoch

  15. …in the ol’ 2nd Wave World People Subscribed to Media

  16. How best to prepare for the future • The point is not so much to predict “the” future… • but to prepare for various contingencies • Based on probable patterns of established trends

  17. The Trends are very clear: Increasing: • Technological capabilities & capacities • Computing (AI & BI); Nano & Bio-tech; Communication & Transportation… • Population Decreasing: • Resources • Separation – Economic, Psycho & Socio….near total of privacy…

  18. Long term trends are very clear--

  19. Law of Accelerating Returns

  20. 4 Factors Impacting Future Forecasting Accuracy: • Continuous Advance of: • Info-Processing Power • Data & Text -Algorithms • Sensor data • Individuals in the InfoSphere

  21. Ergo: How best to think about the future? • Think of the drivers of change • Use the drivers to imagine different scenarios of the future • Imagine perhaps three; each should be plausible but different • Extrapolate back from those future scenarios to think about what to do now to prepare

  22. What “Drivers” Have We Observed? • TechnoSphere • InfoSphere • SocioSphere • PsychoSphere • Bio & PowerSpheres

  23. Ubiquitous- Imbedded Intelligence Information technology will transform our day-to-day lives. "The big trends - - availability of cheap sensors - cheap computing power & ubiquitous connectivity - by 2020 everything large enough to carry a microchip probably will, & from there the possibilities are endless- TechnoSphere Drivers • Intelligent Tech • Convergent Media http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/0,15047,1299021,00.html

  24. Connections between Information Intelligent Web Web OS Web 4.0 2020- 2030 Web 3.0 2010 - 2020 Intelligent personal agents Semantic Web Distributed Search SWRL OWL SPARQL Semantic Databases AJAX OpenID Social Web Semantic Search ATOM Widgets RSS RDF Mashups P2P Web 2.0 Office 2.0 2000 - 2010 Javascript Flash SOAP XML Weblogs Social Media Sharing The Web Java HTML SaaS Social Networking HTTP Directory Portals Wikis VR Keyword Search Lightweight Collaboration The PC BBS Websites Web 1.0 Gopher 1990 - 2000 MacOS SQL MMO’s Groupware SGML Databases The Internet Windows File Servers PC Era 1980 - 1990 Email IRC FTP USENET PC’s File Systems Connections between people Radar Networks

  25. Change is now underway

  26. Interactive marketing will near $55 billion by 2014

  27. The New Media • Created & controlled by the Consumer • All about individual interests & expression

  28. replaced by

  29. Marketing in the New Economy New • Engage • Sense • Process • Respond Traditional • Make • Price • Distribute • Promote

  30. Discussion guided- Data Driven - INFORMS DRIVES CREATES INSPIRES Source: March 12, 2010, “Defining Social Intelligence” Forrester report

  31. Social Media is Just One Piece

  32. Social Media is not magic. Joining Facebook (or Twitter, or LinkedIn) will not revolutionize your company or your marketing.

  33. If you are BORING in real life, you are still boring in social media.

  34. If you think social media will fix your business… Get your nose examined. You’re not smelling the bullsh*t.

  35. You still need to: identify your audience. get them to notice you. create value for them. sell something to them. keep them happy. None of this has changed.

  36. There are MANY marketing tools. Use them all together for the best results.

  37. Incorporate a Full Mix of Media Earned Media “The Result” Owned Media “The Portable Brand” Paid Media “The Catalyst”

  38. Mass media New Media Social networking Direct & Email CRM Engagement Experience Relationship Twitter Call center Consumer buying cycle Off & On-line Promotion Events Social marketing Integrated marketing weaves together multiple elements “Adver-vising”

  39. New Business Model Tenets • Leverage Economies of the Long Tail • Utilize OPEN Source & Cloud Services • Use Peer production (UGC), Networking & Collaboration • LeverageCollective Intelligence • Pass Labor +Resource Savings to Customer

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