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PACON, Kaoshiung, 2 December 2003 (OST-1: Climate Change)

IMPACT OF POSSIBLE FUTURE CLIMATE ON COASTAL WINDS, STORM SURGES AND WAVE CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH SEA. Hans VON STORCH, Arnt PFIZENMAYER, Ralf WEISSE, Katja WOTH, Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany.

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PACON, Kaoshiung, 2 December 2003 (OST-1: Climate Change)

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  1. IMPACT OF POSSIBLE FUTURE CLIMATE ON COASTAL WINDS, STORM SURGES AND WAVE CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH SEA Hans VON STORCH, Arnt PFIZENMAYER, Ralf WEISSE, Katja WOTH,Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany PACON, Kaoshiung, 2 December 2003 (OST-1: Climate Change)

  2. Series of EU projects • WASA (1995-97) • STOWASUS (1998-2001) • PRUDENCE (2001-2003)

  3. Changing Scenarios • Different emission scenarios, IS92a, SRES • Different models, ECHAM, HADCM etc. • Different regionalization: global T106 time slices, empirical downscaling, regional climate models; impact models (waves, storm surges) • SIMILAR RESULTS

  4. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment WASA: Mögliche Änderung der Windgeschwindigkeit der größten Stürme bei CO2 Verdopplung STOWASUS: Ein ähnliches Szenario WASA, 1998. North Sea wind: increase of up to 0.5 m/s (10%ile)

  5. WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment Kauker and Langenberg, 2001 Storm related sea level: + 5 cm Mean water level: +10 cm

  6. WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment Langenberg et al., 1999

  7. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment Zukünftige Szenarien WASA: Mögliche Änderung der Höhen der größten Wellen bei CO2 Verdopplung Günther et a., 1998 CDV-2075: Mögliche Änderung des Überspülens von Deichen bei CO2 Zunahme North Sea waveheight: increase of up to 0.5 m (10%ile)

  8. STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment North Sea wind: increase of up to 2 m/s (0.1%ile) Andersen et al., 2001

  9. STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment North Sea elevation: increase of up to 20 cm (estimated 50 yr return values) North Sea elevation: increase of up to 40 cm (estimated 50 yr return values) Kaas et al., 2001 RIKZ Flather and Wiliams, 2000

  10. STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment North Sea waveheight: increase of up to 0.5 m (0.1%ile) Kaas et al., 2001

  11. Projections for the future / 10 m wind speed difference in percentiles (A2 - CTL) PRUDENCE results: RCM downscaling of HADCM3 A2 scenario, 2070-2100 Mean and 99 percentile of wind speed obtained from CTL run and A2 Contour lines - mean percentiles of CTLColour: Changes in wind speed in the scenario relative to the control run. RCA HIRHAM

  12. Projections for the future / surge meteorological forcing: HIRHAM / RCA PRUDENCE results: RCM downscaling of HADCM3 A2 scenario, 2070-2100 Differencesin inter-annual percentiles of surge/ A2 - CTL: RCA Differences in inter-annual percentiles of surge/ A2 - CTL: HIRHAM Katja Woth, 2003

  13. Projections for the future :return values 50 year return value / CTL andA2and 90 % confidence limits based on 1000 Monte Carlo simulations: East coast of UK Cont. North Sea coast HIRHAM PRUDENCE results: RCM downscaling of HADCM3 A2 scenario, 2070-2100 RCA Katja Woth, 2003

  14. Conclusions The scenarios indicate uniformly for the North Sea: • A slight increase of higher wind percentiles of up to 0.5-2 m/s. • A slight increase of storm surge levels, of up to 20-40 cm. • A slight increase in significant wave height of up to 0.5 m.

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