WMO Priority Areas 2012-2015: Key Issues for CIMO Community

1. WMO Priority Areas of next Financial Period (2012-2015)--Key issues for CIMO community Wenjian ZHANG Director, Observing and Information Systems Department (OBS) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) CIMO TECO, Helsinki, Finland, 30th August, 2010

2. Outline WMO Priority Areas of 2012-2015 WIGOS&WIS: Priority of Priorities Summary

3. EC LXII Decision • The Council recommended that the Secretary-General prepares for consideration by Sixteenth Congress a budget for the sixteenth financial period (2012-2015) that provides adequate resources within the range of proposals presented by the Secretary-General to the Executive Council. • The budget will address effectively the priority areas which Council agreed should be the • Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), • Capacity Building • WMO Integrated Observations and Information Systems • Disaster Risk Reduction, and • Aviation Meteorology.

4. WMO Priority Area Global Framework for Climate Services GFCS

5. World Climate Conference-3 Aug 31 – Sept 4, 2009, GENEVA

6. Components of Global Framework for Climate Services Government Transport Energy Transport Transport Water Energy Water Energy Agriculture Ecosystem Sectoral Users Users Agriculture Ecosystem Agriculture Ecosystem Water Tourism Health Health Private sector Tourism Tourism Health User Interface Programme User Interface Programme Climate Services Information System Climate Services Information System Observations and Monitoring Research & Modeling and Prediction Research & Modeling and Prediction 6

7. WMO Priority Area Disaster Risk Reduction DRR

8. New Challenges:Climate Change and severe disaster under this background. Ever-complex society need improved services. Climate Change Hot & cold spells Droughts River basin flooding Tropical cyclones Heavy precipitations (rain or snow) Storm surges Ice Storms Storm (winds) Dust storms Wildland fires & haze Hail&Lightning Mud & landslides Flash floods Avalanches Tornadoes

9. Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes are on the Rise ! Disasters impacts many sectors! Hazard, vulnerability and exposure on the rise ! Need for Multi-sectoral riskmanagement Energy Aral Sea Transportation Water Resource Management Intensity Strong Wind People Agriculture Urban areas Heavy rainfall / Flood Drought Heatwaves Frequency

10. Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007) Loss of life Number of events Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc Economic losses 90% of events 70% of casualties 75% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.

11. Global Challenges We ShareAs society becomes more complex we become more sensitive to natural and human induced variability. Global Hotspot study (World Bank with ProVention Consortium) Risk levels: Top 30%:Red; Middle 30%:yellow; Lowest 40%: Blue: 35 countries have more than 5% pop in areas at risk from three or more hazards 96 countries have more than 10% pop in areas at risk from two or more hazards 160 countries have more than 25% pop in areas at risk from one or more hazards

12. WMO Priority Area: Aviation Meteorology • Aviation Meteorological Services is a priority area of focus under this ER 1. • The economic and social benefits that can be derived from air transport make it one of the world’s most important industries. • Expand the provision of weather information needed to improve aviation safety and air traffic management;

13. WMO Priority Area Capacity Building CB

14. Observation: GAPS

15. WMO Priority Area WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) and WMO Information System (WIS) WIGOS & WIS

16. What is WIGOS ?WMO INTEGRATED GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM (WIGOS) WMO Congress XV (2007) decision that integration in the context of WMO global observing systems defined as: Establishment of a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable system of observing systems, ensuring interoperability between its component systems; Address, in the most cost-effective way, all of WMO Programme (weather, climate, water and environment) requirements with a view to reducing the financial load on Members and maximizing administrative and operational efficiencies; WIGOS Framework major components: Global Observing System (GOS) Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) WMO Hydrological Global Observing System (WHYGOS) Facilitate the access to observations of WMO co-sponsored programmes (GCOS, GOOS, GTOS, etc)

17. WMO Global Observing Systems World Weather Watch - Global Observing System (GOS, 1963), WMO backbone system • Surface & Ocean in situ observing networks • Upper-air networks • Surface remote sensing (Radar) networks • Airborne and observations • Satellite constellations

18. Annual Global Monitoring

19. GOS Space-based development 1961 1978 1990 2009

20. Historic Evolution of Weather Prediction Skills Source: Martin Miller, ECMWF

21. GOSAT OCO2 SCIAMACHY AIRS, IASI GlobalAtmosphere Watch (GAW)

22. Assessment of the quantity and quality of water resources in order to meet the needs of society, mitigation of water-related hazards global environment quality WMO Hydrological Cycle Observing System

24. WMO Co-sponsored Global Observing Systems --Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) for Climate IOC, UNEP， WMOand ICSU 61% March 2009 Total in situ networks 87% 100% 66% 81% 100% 59% Milestones Drifters 2005 Argo 2007 79% 54% 48% Status against JCOMM targets

25. Outline WMO Priority Areas of 2012-2015 WIGOS: Priority of Priorities Summary

26. Understanding Analysis WIGOS Monitoring Validation Models Consequences (DRR,AM,GFCS) Assimilation Initialization Predictions Importance of observations : From Observations to Consequences The availability of new observations strongly motivates advances in understanding, prediction, and application.

27. GFCS, what are the key challenges to observation and information Systems

28. GFCS: Earth as a Complex System Surface Winds Precipitation Reflection and Transmission Evaporation Transpiration Surface Temperature Land Atmosphere Circulation Surface Winds Precipitation Reflection and Transmission Surface Temperature Evaporation Currents Upwelling Infiltration Runoff Nutrient Loading Surface Temperature Currents Ocean

29. A Seamless Prediction and Services Framework Forecast Uncertainty Forecast Lead Time Applications Climate Change. Centuries Scenarios Decades Anthropogenic Forcing Climate Variability Years Outlook Prediction Seasons Guidance Months Boundary Conditions Threats Assessments 2 Weeks Weather 1 Week Forecasts Initial Conditions Days Watches Hours Warnings & Alert Coordination Adapted from: NOAA Minutes Energy Health State/Local Planning Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Space Applications Hydropower Protection of Life & Property Environment Fire Weather Agriculture Water Management Water Resource Planning Transportation

30. Need an Integrated Global Observing System meet all requirements

31. WIGOS Priorities: Fill-in observing gaps • Key Areas: Sustained observations on operational basis • Ocean (Surface, subsurface and atmosphere above ocean) observations • Land (including Polar Regions and Cryosphere, solid precipitation, etc) • Chemical components of atmosphere • How: by integration of research and operational networks both In-situ and space

32. Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human) greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC AR4)

33. The ENSO The predictability rely on sub-surface data Satellite can not observe sub-surface now

34. TOGA, WOCE, CLIVAR, Argo:Global Ocean Observations Improved basis for an ocean prediction system Current coverage

35. Key issues for CIMO: Ocean Observing Systems NDBC’s Ocean Observing Systems 111 met/ocean buoys 4 ocean/waves buoys 49 C-MAN stations 39 DART stations 55 TAO buoys + 4 current profiler moorings 1000+ Voluntary Observing Ship vessels

36. 300 • 51 CMAN Stations • 50 Weather Buoys 250 • 101 Observing Systems • 2 system Types with similar sensors • ~ 12 % in Severe Environments • USCG Provided all Ship Days 200 150 100 50 0 Growth of NDBC Observing Systems 1999 to 2009 - The Era of Explosive Growth Katrina Tsunami Weather & Hurric. TAO DART C-MAN 1980 1990 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 • 49 CMAN Stations • 96 Weather Buoys • 15 Supplemental Hurricane Buoys • 55 TAO Climate Buoy Systems • 39 DART Tsunami Systems + 300% • 254 Observing Systems • 5 system Types with diverse sensors • ~ 25 % in Severe Environments • Challenge Obtaining Ship Days 36

37. The Arctic Ocean ice has been there for 2 million years.

38. 1979 CCl Management Group meeting, Geneva 18-21 May 2010

39. 2003 CCl Management Group meeting, Geneva 18-21 May 2010

40. Tiksi, Russia Barrow, Alaska Eureka, Canada Alert, Canada Ny-Alesund, Svalbard Summit, Greenland Establishing Intensive Atmospheric Observatories In the Arctic is the component of NOAA/SEARCH being directed by ESRL

41. Temperature-salinity observations under ice

42. Key issue for CIMO: Polar & cryosphere obs. Temperature-salinity observations under ice • Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW) and International Polar Decade (IPD) –EC-PORS • Solid precipitation observing instruments and methods • Cold region observation systems ( Atmosphere, Ocean, Ice, Land, chemical, etc)

43. Key issue for CIMO: Chemical observing instruments

44. EC-LXII Doc.3.4 Para 3.4.16 • The Council recalled that the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano had a huge impact on air traffic across Northern Europe during April and May 2010, and expressed it’s appreciation to those Members who shared specialized ground and airborne observational data in support of the activities of the London VAAC. • The Council further noted that a sustainable volcanic ash observational capability is a high priority activity. It urged the relevant technical commissions (CIMO) to work closely with ICAO and other relevant organizations to develop and implement such a capability, to promote development of appropriate Regional Volcanic Ash Monitoring Networks and related instrument development and also to assist in the strengthening and enhancement of the capabilities of the International Airways Volcano Watch volcano observatories. • The Council further emphasized that WIGOS should be designed and implemented in a way that can respond to emerging and high priority requirements such as the observation of volcanic ash.

45. WIGOS Priority: Ensure the quality of the observations to meet climate & environmental requirements • Accuracy, Precision • Representativeness • Measurement traceability • Long-time series stability • Reducing uncertainty • .............

46. Sea level Observations: 100 fold improvement in 30 years

47. WIGOS Priority: Long-term stabilityThe longest available instrumental record of Temperature

48. WMO / CCl Guidelines on: “Climate Observation Networks & Systems” “Metadata and Homogeneity“ “Climate Data Rescue” “Climate Data Management” Guidelines on maintaining national climate networks Length (>>10 years) and homogeneity of data records Climate scenarios…. -> baseline climatologies with scenarios change of sensors

49. Multi-satellite Intercalibration improves MSU time series Trends for nonlinear calibration algorithm using SNO cross calibration 0.20 K Decade-1 Operational Calibration Improved Calibration Improved calibrated radiances using SNO- improved differences between sensors by order of magnitude.

50. WIGOS Priority (remote sensing systems): Quality Environmental Products : GCOS ECVs