Contact Information: Dr. Howard J. Singer, Chief Science and Technology Infusion Branch

1. Contact Information: Dr. Howard J. Singer, Chief Science and Technology Infusion Branch NOAA Space Environment Center 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6959 303-497-5388 howard.singer@noaa.gov Background: GOES Solar X-ray Image

2. Serving Society with GOES-R Solar and Space Environment Data H. J. Singer, S. Hill, T. Onsager, R. Viereck and D. Biesecker NOAA Space Environment Center • Outline: • Crucial Role for Space Weather • Space Environment Monitor (SEM) Services • Instruments and Status • Vision for New Products and Services • Global Earth and Solar Space Environment Observations Fourth GOES-R Users’ Conference Broomfield, CO May 2, 2006 Background Photo: GOES Solar X-ray Image

3. Monitor, Measure and Specify:Data for Today’s Space Weather • Ground Sites • Magnetometers (NOAA/USGS) • Thule Riometer and Neutron monitor (USAF) • SOON Sites (USAF) • RSTN (USAF) • Telescopes and Magnetographs • Ionosondes (AF, ISES, …) • GPS (CORS) • SOHO (NASA) • Solar EUV Images • Solar Corona (CMEs) NASASOHO • ACE (NASA) • Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles • Magnetic field strength and direction L1 NASAACE NOAA GOES NOAA POES • GOES (NOAA) • Energetic Particles • Magnetic Field • Solar X-ray Flux • Solar EUV Flux • Solar X-Ray Images GOES Measurements: Unique and Crucial • POES (NOAA) • High Energy Particles • Total Energy Deposition • Solar UV Flux

4. Space WeatherScales • Three Categories: data they are based on and example users • Geomagnetic Storms • (Ground-based magnetic field) • Power Utilities, GPS Users, • Spacecraft operations • Solar Radiation Storms • (GOES > 10 MeV particles) • Astronaut Safety • Airline Communication • Radio Blackouts • (GOES Solar X-rays) • Airline and Maritime HF Comm. Two of the three Space Weather Scales depend on GOES http://sec.noaa.gov

5. Aviation Growth… Solar Energetic Particles Monitored by GOES affect Polar Route Communications GOES The advent of new long range aircraft such as the A340-500/600, B777-300ER and B777-200LR United Airlines identified space weather as the #1 concern for polar flights Next 6 Years: Airlines operating China-US routes go from 4 to 9 Number of weekly flights from 54 to 249 Next 12 Years: 1.8 million polar route passengers by 2018

6. GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) Instrumentation Status • Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS) • Energetic Particle Sensors monitor solar, galactic and in situ electron, proton, and • alpha particle fluxes • Medium energy electrons and protons begin on GOES N • Low energy electrons and protons begin on GOES R • Heavy Ions begin on GOES-R • Completed formulation; implementation phase in source selection • Magnetometer (MAG) • Monitors Earth’s time-varying vector magnetic field • Included in spacecraft formulation • Solar Imaging Suite (SIS) • X-Ray Sensor (XRS) monitors whole-Sun x-ray brightness in two bands • Solar EUV Sensor (EUVS) to monitor whole-Sun EUV irradiance in five bands • first on GOES N • Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) monitors solar flares, coronal holes, active regions… • first on GOES 12 • Formulation phase nearing completion • Coronagraph (SCOR) –GOES-R Pre-Planned Product Improvement (not yet • manifested)

7. The following viewgraphs provide a vision of proposed “New Products to Serve Society in the GOES-R Era”

8. Relativistic Electron Specification Throughout Inner Magnetosphere: >2 MeV Electron Flux New Product Utilize data and models to specify radial band at all longitudes 3-D grid to low altitudes 5 minute cadence Current Product One value at GOES-East One value at GOES-West 5 minute cadence Benefit: Improved specification of the satellite-charging environment at all longitudes (GEO) and in MEO and LEO, and improved specification of human radiation hazard at International Space Station.

9. Magnetic Field Specification in the Inner Magnetosphere Magnetometers measure the magnitude and direction of Earth’s magnetic field and its variability at geosynchronous orbit. The field is sampled at 2 Hz (threshold) 8 Hz (goal). Current Product One value of field at GOES-East One value of field at GOES-West 0.5 s cadence, accuracy uncertainties New Product Improved accuracy, extrapolation to other geosynchronous locations, and new guidance for forecasters. Benefit: Current product accuracy limited because satellite is spin stabilized and because only two locations are monitored. New product will specify more accurate field and extend to other satellite locations in geosynchronous orbit. Needed for energetic particle trajectories and assessment of geomagnetic disturbances.

10. GOES-R Solar EUV Sensor • Solar EUV irradiance is a primary source of energy for the upper atmosphere and ionosphere • Affects satellite drag • Affects radio communication • Affects radio navigation • GOES NOP EUV sensor will be the first operational monitor of the solar EUV irradiance • GOES-R EUV products will be an improvement by… • Combination of observations and modeling • Providing much higher spectral resolution • Providing better accuracy and precision

11. Solar X-ray flare observations Impact the ionosphere and disrupt radio communications Related to precursors of space weather storms. The value of the XRS is that it continues the same observation that has been made for nearly 30 years. New science applied to the XRS data set will provide new and improved products. Combining GOES and POES data will improve the D-Region Absorption product Advances in science will improve the ability to use X-ray data to predict energetic proton events GOES-R X-Ray Sensor D-Region Absorption Product Combinging GOES and POES data D-Region Absorption Product for HF Propagation Proton Probability Product Using X-ray Temperature Data from GOES

12. GOES-R Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI ) GOES-12 SXI images. • GOES R SXI will: • Increase dynamic range • Double sensitivity • Improve spatial resolution • GOES R SXI Potential Product Improvements • Automated Coronal Hole Detection and Tracking • Improved synergy with XRS products • Pre-flare signature detection • Integration into numerical space weather models GOES-R SXI images (Simulated using of SOHO EIT data, a joint NASA/ESA research program).

13. GOES-R Instrument Status Arrival Time: Oct 30 07:30 Earliest Arr: Image Latency < 15mins Oct 30 02:45 Latest Arr: CME Detected? Oct 30 12:15 Storm Intensity: Confidence> 90% Kp = 6 Earth Directed? Storm Duration: 9±3 hours Halo: Asymmetry=30% Comments: A place for forecasters to add comments Save P3I CoronagraphGeomagnetic Storm Forecast Product Now NASA/ESA SOHO Research Coronagraph observes Coronal Mass Ejections (CME’s) Not always real-time, beyond lifetime, no automated tools. GOES-R view simulated from SOHO LASCO Automated algorithms with imagery and text displayed for forecaster guidance.

14. Space Weather Atmosphere Terrestrial Weather Snow Pack Air Quality Estuaries Oceans Fresh Water Coasts Soil Moisture NOAA Observing Systems Architecture (NOSA) and Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) Design observing systems that support NOAA's mission and provide maximum value. Space weather observations are integrated into NOSA, including GOES observations that contribute to the global Earth and Solar observations used in NOAA’s operations to continuously specify and forecast conditions in the space environment. Environmental Services NOAA is focused on building “an integrated global environmental observation and data management system”—an Earth observation system that is comprehensive and sustained.